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A common belief, widely spread among those who participate in gambling activities, is that knowledge and expertise on football lead to better prediction skills for match outcomes. Two hundred and fifty-eight persons took part in the study: Logistic regressions were carried out to assess the link between the accuracy of the forecasted scores and the expertise of the participants expert, amateur, layperson , controlling for age and gender.
Expertise, age, and gender did not appear to have an impact on the accuracy of the football match prognoses. Public health policies may need to consider the phenomenon in order to prevent problem gambling related to football betting. Football is one of the most popular sports in the world, Europe included. It is associated with important monetary transactions and financial sponsoring[ 1 ].
Sports betting is associated with pathological gambling[ 2 ] and is widely available on the Internet[ 3 ], one of the most important means for seeking general, medical, and gambling information[ 4 , 5 ]. Sport is not only a question of chance, far from it. To place your bet efficiently, you must learn about football as a sport and follow a minimum of its championships. Football competition is, unmistakably, a sport based on a high level of training and specific skills.
This assertion may lead to the belief that football knowledge and expertise will allow better prediction of match scores. As suggested by Cantinotti, Ladouceur, and Jacques[ 9 ], to a certain degree, the utility of sport expertise in sport betting cannot be fully ruled out. For example, it was previously found that factors such as the home field advantage, team rankings, most recent results of teams, and injuries of key players significantly affect game results[ 10 — 14 ].
It was then suggested that skills could be helpful when betting on sports events[ 15 ]. This interpretation probably contributes to an overestimation of betting skills[ 5 ]. It would be relevant to determine whether expertise is essential for determining game scores. If this were not the case, the alleged skills in sports betting could be regarded as no more than a manifestation of the illusion of control, as observed in most gambling activities. Studies that evaluated gambling skills rather than the role of expertise in sports for betting activities showed that monetary gains from gambling skills were not significantly higher than would have occurred by chance.
Because of the wide popularity of football and football betting, it seems important from a public health policy perspective to assess the links between football expertise and prediction of match results. The present study examined whether football experts were better than non-experts for predicting the scores of the first 10 matches of the UEFA European Football Championship.
During the 3 weeks prior to the beginning of the first match of the UEFA European Football Championship, a questionnaire was completed anonymously by study participants recruited through local advertising and direct contact of football professionals players, handlers, and referees and sports reporters.
The questionnaire assessed professional and amateur activity in relation to football. It also included five questions Table 1 related to the degree of football interest questions 1, 2, and 3 , the degree of belief in the link between a good knowledge of football teams and accuracy of match-related prognoses question 4 , and sport betting habits question 5. The forecasts were analyzed for winning accuracy accuracy of the prognosis: winning team 1, winning team 2, or draw and score accuracy good score prediction.
An initial exploratory analysis involved the calculation of proportions, as well as means and standard deviation of the outcome values. Moreover, one-way analyses of variance ANOVAs were performed to compare the distribution of the mean numbers of correct outcomes and correct score predictions as dependent variables with regard to the above-cited first four questions as factors, adjusting for multiple pairwise comparisons.
We also used a paired samples t -test to test whether gamblers had a greater number of correct outcomes than chance when forecasting the results of the games. Indeed, by chance, that is to say in the absence of any information, the probability of a gambler predicting 7 correct outcomes out of 10 games 0. This last probability, referred to as conditional probability, means that before making a choice, the bettor will take into account all relevant information at their disposal.
Finally, a binary logistic regression for each of the 10 matches was done to predict the accuracy of the scores correct vs. After checking for multicollinearity and outliers, we assessed the goodness of fit of these logistic models by considering the following:. The classification table of the intercept-only model baseline or null model with that of the full model, where a significant improvement should be expected over the null model. The Nagelkerke R-square statistic with all the independent variables.
This statistic attempts to quantify the proportion of explained variation in the logistic regression. The statistical tests of the predictors, using the Wald chi-square statistics. P-values less than 0. Fifty-five Answers to the five questions in the questionnaire are reported in Table 2.
Sports betting appeared to be associated with football interest. There was no correlation found between question 4 believed role of football expertise for prognosis skills and sports betting. The numbers and percentages of accurate outcomes and scores by category of participants are reported in Table 3. The mean number of correct outcome or score prognoses and the relative frequency of the distribution of correct outcomes by category of participants are reported in Table 4 and Figure 1 , respectively.
But after adjusting for multiple comparisons, this difference was no longer significant. No significant difference before or after adjustment was observed for the other three questions. We conclude from the data that the bettors were more accurate in their predictions than chance.
The logistic regressions, which were done to test the research hypothesis, yielded poor results. The classification table of the full models showed no improvement over the baseline models, meaning that the classification rates were exactly the same in both situations Table 5 , column 2. This result means that compared with a layperson, being an amateur increases the likelihood of accurate score prediction by 2. It is worthwhile noting that no expert was able to correctly predict more than seven outcomes and no participant more than eight Figure 1.
In the present study, the results of the logistic regressions, although poor, were consistent across matches. Experts do not appear to be better than non-experts at predicting football match scores. Similarly, ANOVA results indicated that the average number of correct outcomes with respect to accurate scores were not significantly different across the four conditions first four questions in Table 1.
The belief that expertise is useful for sports gamblers seems to be simply an illusion of control. By chance alone, the probability of someone predicting 10 correct outcomes first winning team, second winning team, or draw out of 10 games is estimated to be 1. This is an interesting probability for the sports betting business, which mostly offers big monetary winnings on a combination of match results. Thus, in consideration of this probability and the lack of impact of expertise on football betting outcomes, sports betting appears to be nothing other than a game of chance, as suggested by other studies[ 7 , 15 ].
One possible limitation of the present study is that it was not carried out as a real gambling condition. The results should be then taken with caution. Further studies may include measures of gambling-related cognitions e. Further studies may also include betting related to other sport activities. Another limitation was the small sample of games surveyed and the non-random selection of these games, which resulted in a non-probability sample.
The possibility that, by pure chance, the games selected happened to be more or less predictable than the standard ones should not be ignored. The absence of these potential predictors may explain the small predictive power of our models. Expertise, gender, and age did not have an impact on the accuracy of the football match prognoses. Eurobet finances eight clubs that could be identified as mid-level power players of the Italian economy: Cagliari, Chievo, Fiorentina, Empoli, Genoa, Sampdoria, Atalanta and Udinese will be directly concerned by the ban.
A similar scenario is the ban on cigarette advertising introduced in Italy in , which reportedly has not decreased smoking addiction. Category: Article. Tech law firm JAG Shaw Baker has joined international law firm Withers to create a unique legal offering that meets the needs of entrepreneurs, investors and technology companies across the world. Italy bets against prognostics Share Tell us what you think Full Article.
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Basically a football prognosis is to try to guess something that could happen in any sport, both soccer, basketball, tennis, volleyball, rugby among others, this will depend on the choice of each bettor. There are several people who hit the score of the favorite sport, the champion of the year, or even minute that the next goal will be marked, etc.
Some even before the match starts are already making comments and trying to guess what will happen. Unfortunately, the method also has some drawbacks that need to be taken into account before betting is made. Among these disadvantages, it is worth mentioning:. The bookmaker assigns a probability that each event will occur and this translates into quotas or "Odds" in English. The smaller the number, the greater the likelihood that something will happen.
There are many options of sites to start betting and making your football predictions, just choose the most reliable and with the best odds. If you are abetting fan as well, you can even work on your betting strategy with Chuck No Risk and ensure some tidy winnings! The number of betting companies has become countless and pretty much all of them offer online betting. Given the number of bookmakers, there are of course great differences in the subjects of portfolio, integrity or bonus offers.
To get an overview of this would be time-consuming and needs extensive research— and here is where the Chuck No Risk sports betting comparison takes you under its wing. We have scrutinized all betting providers active in the UK market and rated them in respect to various criteria. Whether it is bonus offers, pay-out conditions, bet-portfolio, odds keys or integrity, Chuck No Risk brings enlightenment! Chuck No Risk definitely pulls no punches in its sports betting comparison.
Every sports betting provider is mercilessly dissected and evaluated here. The results of the bookmaker comparison are presented in a very structured way as briefly as possible in the clear test reports. Betting providers have to fight for every individual player with the competition ruling the betting market.
Ultimately that is only to your benefit because the bookmakers are always trying to out-bid each other with new customer offers and so tempt punters onto their platforms. There are bonuses and bonuses though. They differ not just on the level of the bonus sum, but also and this is probably even more important in the playthrough conditions. You have to play the sum received through x times before you can have it paid out.
Of course, the Chuck sports betting comparison has also busied itself with that. If you want to start to bet, you must first, of course, charge your player account. Bank transfer, Skrill, credit cards or, probably the most popular payment provider for online transactions, PayPal, are only a few of the possibilities available to you for charging your player account.
What is important here is mainly how fast the transaction is carried out and of course whether fees are payable. Our bookmaker comparison provides clarity here too and deals thoroughly with the individual betting providers in the test reports. Of course, you as a punter will also want to be able to withdraw your winnings as quickly and easily as possible. We have also ensured that we have compared the bookies to each other in this respect.
It is not just the bonus and the payment methods that a bookmaker has in its portfolio that make it a good betting provider. For new customers, for example, customer service is particularly important because it must be in place for questions that primarily arise for new players. Select a competition. Comp Name FT. Team Home. Team Away. Brasileiro Serie A. Internacional RS. Sport Recife PE. Fortaleza CE. Vasco Da Gama RJ. Coupe de France. FC Girondins Bordeaux. Toulouse FC. Grenoble Foot. AS Monaco.
Racing Strasbourg. Montpellier HSC. AJ Auxerre. Olympique Marseille. FC Nantes. RC Lens. SC Amiens. FC Metz.
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Note that all of the first half and win the. Again prognostics sports betting can be found banker doubles onto these as part of our NBA tips. Check out our other sports betway betting kenya tips here:. Data Disclaimer Help Suggestions. Our tip : Manchester City FC win. Our tip : Sheffield United. Game Totals - This is a handicap system based on game to win the Overs a game. If the game total is a whole number and ends up being the same as the total points scored then the Unders. Our tip : Atalanta win. Our tip : PSG win.Boost your betting success by reading our informative free betting tips and match Are you a fan of sports and sports betting, and you want some help with your As such, to know how to orient your prognosis, it is often helpful to view the. News, statistics, predictions and other sports betting information for all major sports and leagues. There was no correlation found between question 4 (believed role of football expertise for prognosis skills) and sports betting. Table 2 Distribution.