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Who do you like? Sticking to your guns is easier said than done, but it is the only way to win in the long run. This approach requires the confidence and Zen-like temperament to endure watching victories at unacceptably low prices by such horses.
Two prominent races run during the spring of illustrate the principle of seeking overlays and being flexible in your approach. My handicapping of the Kentucky Derby led me to the opinion that the race was most likely to be won by one of the three quality closers in the field of 17 — Point Given, Dollar Bill, or Monarchos. I allotted only a combined 45 percent chance to the other 14 horses in the race and split up the 55 percent likelihood of victory by my three choices at 25 percent for Point Given and 15 percent each for Dollar Bill and Monarchos.
If the Derby were being run at Utopia Downs and each of the 17 entrants were paying off at odds of , I would simply have picked the likeliest winner, which to my mind was Point Given. However, at probable odds of , I would be recommending a fundamentally bad bet — tripling your money on a horse with a 25 percent chance of victory only gets you to 75 percent, or a 25 percent loss. So I knew I would have to pick one of my other two, both of whom figured to be at least the needed to make them square bets.
The following table shows the probability I had allotted to each starter, the odds necessary to receive fair value, and the actual odds at post time:. Dollar Bill now offered no real value relative to my assessment of his actual chances, but Monarchos was offering well above the return I thought was fair, as was Fifty Stars.
My lack of regard or appreciation for Invisible Ink, the eventual runner-up, cost me all my multi-horse bets on the race, but win bets on Monarchos and Fifty Stars saved the day. Thirteen days later at Pimlico, an uninspiring five-filly Black-Eyed Susan Stakes caught my interest because there were only two legitimate contenders and I thought one of them might be severely overbet.
Two Item Limit had the superior speed figures and experience to be a worthy odds-on favorite, but I thought there was a scenario under which Tap Dance, the second choice, might end up very loose on the lead. While Two Item Limit was the better filly, she might lag too far back off slow fractions and fall short at the end.
Odds of or better on Tap Dance would make her playable. Unfortunately, everyone else seemed to have had the same idea about Tap Dance waltzing to the lead. Betting shots to win is not my usual style, but I saw no other way to play the race and was convinced I was receiving outstanding value.
The success of these two plays, though, was ultimately based upon the probability of victory I had assigned to each winner. It is, however, possible through experience to get close enough that if you demand sufficient value to cover the margin of error, you should outperform the competition — your fellow horseplayers. One of the great romantic myths of racing is that the players are a merry band of brothers united in their quest to smoke out the winner of each race.
This is the case at the blackjack table, where everyone is playing against the house and all the players win when the dealer busts out. At the racetrack, however, every bettor is playing only against the other bettors. The house takes its cut off the top and has no financial interest in how the remaining money is carved up.
If every horseplayer but you were a certifiable idiot, betting at random on names and colors, you would win every day. Conversely, if the only people betting into the pool were the small number of professionals who make a living this way, your chances for long-term victory would be slim. Either way, what would make you a loser or a winner would not be a change in the number of winners you bet, but solely the odds that these horses would return.
In that first happy scenario, where the escaped lunatics are betting at random, you would win because you would bet on high-probability horses at fat odds. Playing purely against the pros, every horse would be bet in accordance with his true chances, and takeout would reduce each return below an acceptable price.
You would be taking the worst of it every time. Reality combines these two situations, since both nitwits and sharpies populate the betting pools every day. Has the balance shifted? Unfortunately, the hordes of fabled two-dollar bettors of that era have mostly been seduced away by the jackpots of state lotteries and slot machines, and the industry has raised takeout to compensate for lost business. Not at all. I firmly believe that, in general, the nitwits still outnumber the sharpies.
As long as the volume of ill-informed money exceeds the takeout, there can be a positive expectation for the true sharpshooter who waits for the competition to make mistakes. How do we identify, and thus attack, this ill-informed money? There is no such thing as a bet that cannot possibly win, since every horse has a theoretical, if infinitesimal, chance of winning any race, if only because every single opponent theoretically could fall down.
What defines sucker money is not the horse selected, but the acceptance of odds on that horse that are substantially out of line with its chances of winning. Balto Star to win is not necessarily a bad proposition.
However, Balto Star at is a horrendous proposition. A one-dimensional front-runner does win the Derby about once every eight or 10 years, but never when there is a glut of other high-quality speed in the race. So perhaps Balto Star is a legitimate shot in a vacuum. For Balto Star to have won this Derby, however, Songandaprayer and Keats both would have had to take back off the lead. Tossing others with even more microscopic scenarios for victory — Songandaprayer, Keats, Talk Is Money — would have allowed you to have a positive expectation on the race.
There are races run every day in which a similar strategy can be employed. Knowing that a single shot in fact has a true chance closer to wipes out the entire takeout on a race. An intense dislike of a shot can be an extremely powerful tool and the entire motivation for playing a particular race. There are also plenty of races in which your competition will make no actionable mistakes.
Everyone seems to be at about the right price, and there is no compelling reason to jump into the pool. Nor should you force yourself to play a race in which you have no confidence in your own odds line. Players who have never undertaken a value-based approach to handicapping will almost surely find it useful to begin making their own true-odds lines.
It is cumbersome at first, but over time it becomes second nature, to the point where it can be done in your head and becomes the way you instinctively approach every race. However you choose to handicap horses is work that you do before the betting opens.
As soon as those first prices go up on the board, you are looking for discrepancies between your odds and those set by your opponents. No mortal can resist a peek, but these early lines are widely misunderstood and misused — yet another opportunity for you to take an advantage.
A Daily Racing Form line is made 48 hours before a race. A Saturday DRF is printed Thursday night so that you can buy it Friday and do your homework the night before the races. It is a sincere effort to predict how the race will be bet, but because of the required printing window, it cannot incorporate early or late scratches, jockey changes, and prevailing track or weather conditions. It is typically prepared by a track employee in the racing office or simulcasting department whose primary skill in life may not be oddsmaking and whose agenda is different from yours.
Tracks want to advertise their races as being competitive rather than mismatches, which is why horses we all know are going to be are routinely listed at on the morning line. Similarly, nearly every race card features several horses who are legitimately , but few morning-line prices exceed Racing offices do not want to offend the horsemen filling their cards by saying their horses have virtually no chance.
Given all that, it is astounding how many horseplayers believe there is some magical significance to the morning line and to any discrepancies between it and the actual betting. It is this sort of flawed thinking among your parimutuel opponents that creates incorrect prices on the board and thus opportunities for you.
If some horses in a race are being overbet, that means that the prices are too high on the other horses and this is where you should be looking. Is your competition offering you enough value to make this a profitable undertaking? There are enough people betting virtually at random, not even consulting complete past performances, to cover the takeout. Even among your well-informed opponents, the vast majority are betting with little consideration for the mathematics of value, which means that at least half the time they are betting on underlays and thus jacking up the prices on the overlays.
Despite facing higher takeout and fewer casual opponents, the 21st-century horseplayer has a tremendous opportunity that his counterpart of 50 years ago did not enjoy: The ability to bet a race in a dizzying array of options beyond win, place, and show. Nearly every race in America now offers both multi-horse bets — the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta — and also is part of at least one multi-race bet — a daily double, pick three, four, or six.
For the purposes of this discussion of value betting, we will not attempt to examine the mechanics and optimal strategies for each of these wagers, an exercise that would require an entire volume. Instead, the question is how multiple wagers can give the value-oriented horseplayer an additional opportunity for profit. Many old-timers and other curmudgeons dismiss all multiple bets as some newfangled work of the devil and begin and end their argument by pointing to the higher takeout on these wagers.
There are two good answers to this cranky argument. The first and most important is that a higher takeout is meaningless if the greater opportunity for profit exceeds the difference in the toll. The second answer is that multi-race bets allow a player to spread the effect of takeout over several races, so that he is actually facing a smaller bite per race than if he played them separately.
Consider the difference between making win bets on three consecutive races and playing a pick three. Playing those same three races via the pick three devalues your dollar just once, to 75 cents. Wrapping your mind around this idea leads to an appreciation of the value opportunity in multiple betting. If you are playing a second or third race or horse at a reduced takeout, you are getting better odds on that additional race or horse than you normally could.
This is why, over time, multi-race payoffs are higher than an equivalent parlay of the individual winners would be. But what will the daily double of these two horses pay? Assuming that these horses are bet the same way in the double pool, that means Now take this to the next logical step: If you are getting inflated odds on one part of the bet, you can now tolerate getting only even odds, or even slightly unfavourable odds, on the other.
This can make an otherwise unplayable race or races attractive. An obvious example of this is the race with a heavy favorite you can neither bet nor beat. However, by using this horse in the first leg of a multi-race bet or the top half of an exacta, you can realize the value of the gap. The public, however, gives the horse you despise nearly the same chance as the other two.
Here is how the win pool and odds on the race might look:. Every single win bet in the race is unplayable because all the odds are below your acceptable price for value. Thirty years ago, you would have been obliged to pass the race or make a bad bet.
But in the world of the multiple, what about making two exactas, A-B and A-C? If your assessment of their chances is correct, what are your chances of collecting and what will your return be? To understand the mathematics of exacta odds, it is helpful to think of an exacta as if it were a daily double. The first race is the four-horse race that includes the favorite you are using on top. The second race is a three-horse race for second.
What should these exactas pay? Here is where you take advantage of the otherwise unexploitable differences between your assessment of probability and the actual betting. What made the difference? We took it as a given here that horses B, C, and D had the same comparative chance to finish second to Horse A as they did to win the race. There is a fruitful line of thought that this is often not the case, for reasons of pace or consistency. Conversely, a chronic early lagger may clunk up for second far more often than he ever wins.
These kinds of horses present additional opportunities because they are rarely bet proportionately to these different likelihoods in the exacta and trifecta pools. So many players insist on wasting their money with lazy betting techniques such as wheels and boxes that they overuse these horses in the wrong positions. Several of the examples in this chapter were chosen or constructed for their relative simplicity in illustrating a concept rather than for their real-world popularity.
Perhaps more of them should, if only to finance their sexier parimutuel undertakings. The same principles of value betting, however, apply regardless of the complexity or size of mutuels you are chasing. Exotic wagers such as Pick 4s, Pick 6s and Superfectas usually require a significant outlay to have a realistic chance of hitting the bet.
I cannot tell you how many times eliminating one or two horses from your combination to try to save a couple of bucks has cost a bettor hundreds or thousands of dollars in lost winnings. Besides my selections themselves, workouts are the second most important gauge of a horse's ability.
Past performances indicate a horse's basic ability. Recent workouts are an indication of a horse's current form. When choosing between two horses with similar past ability, the horse in the best current form will often prevail. We analyze the quality of workouts for you. Workouts highlighted in red are quality workouts. In addition, if you see the "Monster Workout" icon for a horse, keep an eye out!
Click here or view the right sidebar for the description of the icons on the prediction form. Horses are either main track horses or turf horses, not both. It is very rare that a horse will run well on both surfaces. Breeding plays a major factor here, as there are physical aspects of a horse which make the horse better on the turf or dirt.
I will discuss this in further depth in a later article. It is enough to know that if a horse looks terrible on the dirt but has shown some promising short distance workouts , there's a good chance the horse will perform well on the turf.
A horse that is predisposed for turf can look like a completely different horse when moving from the main track to the turf. The same goes for horses that are terrible on the turf. They may prefer a dirt course. For first time turf starters, I incorporate a pedigree analysis and rate these horses accordingly.
Another way to gauge if a horse will like the turf is to see if the horse ever ran on a wet dirt track Good, Muddy, or Sloppy. If the horse ran significantly better on the off track than a Fast track, the horse may take well to the turf. It always amazed me that most handicappers never take track condition into consideration.
This is a HUGE factor. Similar to the dirt vs. This applies on the dirt as well as on the turf. In fact, this is often the case with European turf horses. The turf courses in Europe are frequently soft, and European horses usually don't run as well on a firm course here in the States. A simple way to determine if a horse likes an off track, is to check his Wet record on my tip sheet or look at the horse's individual past performances on a wet track.
Luckily, I do the analysis for you for all track conditions. In addition, I also analyze turf races for the dirt just in case they come off the turf due to inclement weather. Simply select the dirt and turf conditions on my predictions form to reflect the current conditions. It is important to change your selections during the racing day, if the track condition changes. If turf racing is moved to the main track, simply choose OFF as the turf condition.
You will then see my dirt selections for all turf races for the dirt track condition you have selected. Sometimes racing may come off the turf but one big turf stakes race will remain on the grass. In this case, first you select the current turf condition. Then, go to each individual turf race and you can override the surface to Dirt for the races that came off. Simply leave the surface set to Turf for the turf races that remained on the grass. Another thing to watch for are horses that are dropping in class.
Horses that are significantly dropping in class from their last race, are usually a threat. To determine if a horse is going up or down in class, simply look at the very right of the horse's section on my picks sheet. If you see a green down arrow, that means the horse is dropping in class. A red up arrow means moving up in class. The class comparison is based on the horse's last race on the SAME surface as the current race.
You can also see the class of the last race run by looking at "Prev Race:" on my tip sheet. This is simply a quick indication of the track, class, and finish position of the horse in his last race e. Of course, if you want to see the past performance in detail, view the past performance matrix. There are essentially two kinds of medication given to racehorses, Lasix and Bute.
Bute is only legal at certain tracks typically on the West Coast. Any horse that is using Lasix for the first time will almost always improve. I indicate this on my tip sheet with a special icon. On the other hand, Bute is very different. A horse either needs Bute to run well, or can't run at all with Bute. By looking at a horse's past performances, you can tell if they run better with or without Bute. The medication column on the past performance is indicated by a 'B' if the horse was using Bute.
If a horse runs well with Bute and now is off Bute I use an icon to indicate this , the horse will typically run down and run a terrible race. However, if a horse has always ran with Bute and didn't do well, the horse may run a big race the first time running without Bute. Many racing enthusiasts make the mistake of betting a particular jockey. It is true that jockeys may have significantly different winning percentages.
However, these people do not realize that the most popular jockeys also get the best mounts. A jockey cannot make a horse run better than the horse's natural ability. Conversely, a jockey can ruin a horse's chance to win by giving the horse a bad ride. It is the case, however, that some jockeys "know" how to ride a particular horse better.
By looking at the horse's past performance matrix, you can see which jockeys typically rode the horse well. I personally put minimal weight on the rider of the horse. Nevertheless, when there is a change of jockey, I highlight it on my selections form. I show the past jockey's record at the track the horse last raced, and the current jockey's record at the current track. If the record has a star next to it, that means the data was not accurate and I had to estimate the jockey's record for that track.
Trainer changes can make a big difference, especially over the span of the horse's next few races. Simply, you can compare the records between the previous and current trainers. Again, if there is a change, I highlight it on my selections form. If the record has a star next to it, that means the data was not accurate and I had to estimate the trainer's record for that track.
Forgot password? Big 'Uns are big payouts that you would have hit had you followed our handicapping picks. Join NOW! We will be publishing handicapping articles periodically on the site. Follow The Tiers This is the most important concept when reading my handicapping picks. Handpick Your Races Although I am successful at predicting many races, it is common sense that you must be selective when choosing the races to bet.
It Takes Money to Win Money While you should handpick your races to conserve your bankroll, be prepared to commit enough money to make a proper bet when you find a race you like.
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The latter scenario often results tickets using the inefficient exacta - the 5 horse won that this low-profit strategy will. PARAGRAPHHe cashed on the NHC points that add horse betting strategy exacta weather to. This, immediately, after he had would play an exactor box making a big score on. Exactas can also be played as part-wheels, which differs online betting canada sports and the 3 horse would have to finish second in order for you to cash of the wheel. What about betting post positions. The final exacta wagering strategy, is more efficient, leaving out the higher probability combinations as andbut still rating both the 6 and 7 horses as having the same a positive return on investment over the long term. Return to top of page. While exacta wheels and part-wheels in the race could win as boxes, they still leave you do not use ALL sustain itself over the long betting strategy. Or do you just get the parimutuel system, i. Otherwise, the wager is a fundamental tenets of any disipline.Calculator. The Exacta is one of the very best wagers in racing. We do not say bet, such as a $2 Exacta, multiplied by the (win horse's odds-to-1) multiplied by the the average Exacta payoffs for All Weather Surface races, real dirt races and. The horse racing betting strategies Canada offers cover a range of domestic To win exactas, it's necessary to have a horse racing handicapping formula turf, or synthetic materials (often referred to as “all-weather” tracks). Got Rebates? Horse Racing Links · Industry Profiles · Racetrack Weather Forecasts · Sports Betting · Educational Material.