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He also arrives with a big 6. Ferreira puts his solid record on the line against the UFC veteran Dariush in an intriguing fight early on the main card. Stamann was expected to face Andre Ewell, who was pulled from the card due to a positive COVID test, according to his management. Ewell is reportedly asymptomatic and quarantining in Las Please enter an email address.
Something went wrong. Conor McGregor McGregor is a heavy betting favorite in the main event despite being the No. Dan Hooker vs. Amanda Ribas Ribas is the biggest favorite on the main card with an implied win probability of Brad Tavares vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Makhmud Muradov Muradov is the betting favorite in a middleweight bout against Sanchez Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov The night begins with Albazi as a very slight underdog against Zhumagulov in a flyweight battle.
When is UFC ? Prelims begin at p. Where is UFC ? Where can I bet on UFC ? Alexander Volkov odds, picks and prediction. Manel Kape odds, picks and prediction. Clay Guida odds, picks and prediction. Frankie Edgar odds, picks and prediction Joe Williams.
January 22, From The Web Ads by Zergnet. Beneil Dariush odds, picks and prediction Joe Williams. Ferreira checks in with a two-inch reach advantage, while Askar Askar odds, picks and prediction Joe Williams. Share this article share. Most Popular. Email Sign up No, thanks. In that case, the bookmaker is set for a large payout if that outcome occurs. So bookmakers can hedge their bets by offering more favorable odds on the opposite outcome. In this way, they attract bets that cover at least some of the potential losses.
Kaunitz and co say this process also creates an opportunity for anybody able to spot it. Their method is straightforward. They start by assuming that bookies themselves are good at setting odds and that the prices they offer are an accurate reflection of the real probabilities of a win, draw, or loss, plus their own margin.
In that case, a good measure of these probabilities is a simple average of the odds offered by all the bookies—a kind of wisdom of the crowd. This gives the average odds, which Kaunitz and co say is a remarkably accurate reflection of the real probabilities.
Then it is a simple matter to analyze all the odds being offered and to find the outliers. Kaunitz and co next work out how favorable the outlying odds are. If they are good enough, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run. They built a Web crawler that gathered the odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world. They calculated the average odds, found any outliers, and then worked out whether a bet would favor them or not. This simulation paid out 44 percent of the time and delivered a yield of 3.
An important question is whether this result could have been pure chance. Could they simply have got lucky? So the team compared their results to 2, simulations in which they placed bets randomly on the same games. In that case, the bets paid out 39 percent of time at a return of That allowed the team to calculate the likelihood that their first result was a fluke.
That gave Kaunitz and co good reason to think their method would work in the real world, but there was a problem. Ordinary punters cannot always bet on closing odds, which can vary significantly from the odds given in the run-up to a game. So Kaunitz and co decided to simulate this, too. The way odds vary in the run-up to games is not publicly available, so the team created a bot that collected these odds from betting websites around the world from September to the end of February Then they tested their approach in this data set.
The results were even better. Their bets paid off Curiously, a random betting strategy on the same data yielded a return of 0.
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