If football is the undisputed king of sports betting, basketball is second in line to the throne. The NBA has always been popular with casual fans. But the success of daily fantasy sports and the sweeping legalization of sports betting in the U. The league has embraced betting as a way to connect with fans and grow the sport.
This means bettors are tasked mostly with picking not just who wins each game but by how much who covers? The juice is typically 10 cents, known as " Anything above that means you're turning a profit. Let's break down a few helpful tips for bettors entering the season. Home-Court Advantage Is Overvalued.
Home-court advantage is real, but it's also overvalued. Oddsmakers typically will award 3 points for the home court. Public bettors love betting home teams, which leads to the books shading lines further toward home teams, forcing casual bettors to take overpriced numbers. This creates added value to buy low on road teams. According to Bet Labs Sports, road teams have gone 8,, against the spread with pushes since This accounts for a But because of the juice, you would be down This sounds pretty awful, but in comparison, home teams have covered only at a So home teams were nearly seven times worse ATS against the spread compared with road teams.
Rested Road Dogs. The public also likes to bet on favorites, which makes sense. If you're going to bet, you might as well back the "better" team expected to win. However, this bias also creates shaded lines toward favorites, creating added value to back underdogs. Underdogs "get" points while favorites "give points. The key is focusing on road dogs, specifically those enjoying a rest advantage. The NBA plays a busy game schedule with lots of traveling and back-to-back games.
Bettors should always consider these factors when placing a bet, especially when one team has tired legs and the other is rested. One great spot to lean on: road dogs coming off four or more days of rest against teams on two or fewer days of rest. Look For "Severe" Line Moves One of the few ways to capitalize on home-court advantage is backing dogs with big line moves in their favor.
In the NBA, it's common to see a line move a half-point or a full point in either direction. But when you see a big 1. Since , home dogs receiving at least 1. Because the NBA market is flooded with recreational money from Average Joe bettors, going contrarian or "betting against the public" is a smart move. More often than not, the public loses. They bet with gut instinct and bias. And the house always wins. So going against the crowd mentality is a profitable long-term strategy.
The easiest spots to bet against the public are the nationally televised prime-time games on TNT or ESPN that get lots of attention and heavy bets from public bettors. One of the best ways to go contrarian is to look for inflated lines in which the public is extremely heavy and lopsided on one team and forces the books to move the number further toward that popular team.
By being savvy and betting on that unpopular underdog, you just got an extra point or more of value simply due to the public artificially inflating the number. If the line is inflated two points or more, the cover rate jumps to Think of it this way: When two teams are facing off and one looks like a massive blowout and easy cover, it's smart to buy low and back the unpopular team, especially if they're getting extra points.
They'll likely lose, but their chances of covering increase dramatically. Divisional Unders That Drop. Unders are a smart bet in general because, just like favorites and home teams, the public is biased toward overs. They want to see a fun, exciting, high-scoring game and root for points. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers toward overs, creating added value to bet unders.
Since , unders have cashed at a Again, a big loser. But overs have been much worse, losing Providing soccer live scores, soccer live TV schedule, live soccer TV, Betting online, Betting news, betting prediction for today, best soccer tips , soccer free games and tips, free bets, and much more. Cukup dengan 1 User ID sudah bisa bermain Banyak games loh!!
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Walker is the sports book director at the Mirage Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which means that every week he fields thousands of bets in sports ranging from pro football to Ivy League basketball. For all those games, Walker has to offer a line or point spread , which lets bettors know which team is favored to win and by how many points.
The way the tine works is simple. Say the Giants are favored this week by three and a half points over the Rams. If you bet on the Giants, they have to win by four points or more for you to win the bet. As a bookmaker Walker's job is not to try to pick what team will win. He leaves that to the gamblers, at least in theory. Instead, his job is to make sure that the gamblers bet roughly the same amount of money on one team as on the other.
Why would Walker be satisfied with just breaking even? Because bookies make more money on every bet they win than they lose on every bet they get wrong. Imagine there are only two bettors, one who bets on the favorite and the other who bets on the underdog.
And the bookie keeps that advantage only when he avoids having too much money riding on one side of a bet. To keep that from happening, Walker needs to massage the point spread so that bets keep coming in for both teams. So the line moved. The opening line is set by the bookmaker, but it shifts largely in response to what bettors do—much as stock prices rise and fall with investor demand.
In theory you could set the opening line wherever and simply allow it to adjust from there automatically, so that the point spread would rise or fall anytime there was a significant imbalance between the amounts wagered on each side.
The Mirage would have no problem doing this; its computerized database tracks the bets as they come in. It does not have a crystal ball: point spreads only weakly predict the final scores of most NFL games, for instance. But it is very hard for even well-informed gamblers to beat the final spread consistently. In about half the games, favorites cover the spread, while in the other half underdogs beat the spread. This is exactly what a bookie wants to have happen. So you have to search hard to outperform the betting crowd.
The same is true in many other sports. Because sports betting is a kind of ready-made laboratory to study predictions and their outcomes, a host of academics have perused gambling markets to see how efficient—that is, how good at capturing all the available information—they are.
The results of their studies are consistent: in general, in most major sports the market is relatively efficient. There are exceptions: odds are less accurate in those sports and games where the betting market is smaller and less liquid meaning that the odds can change dramatically thanks to only a few bets , like hockey or golf or small-college basketball games. These are often the sports where professional gamblers can make real money, which makes sense given that we know the bigger the group, the more accurate it becomes.
And there are also some interesting quirks: in horseracing, for instance, people tend to bet on long shots slightly more often than they should and bet on favorites slightly less often than they should. This seems to be a case of risk-seeking behavior: bettors, especially bettors who have been losing, would rather take a flyer on a long shot that offers the possibility of big returns than grind it out by betting on short-odds favorites.
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