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|Totals system for sports betting||And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding. The various systems discussed in this article cover a wide range of scenarios and focal points that have the potential to yield an NBA betting edge. All of these factors play key roles in projecting the final score of an NBA game. Consider implementing one or more NBA betting systems into your handicapping process. But after each win, you return to the original wager amount.|
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|Totals system for sports betting||The main idea behind the Martingale is that you're doubling wagers every time you lose. In most cases, when wagering on a total the bettor is simply choosing whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be over or under the listed total of points to be scored. Sound too good to be true? When tired, most players will opt to play less defense and save their energy for scoring. Think the Dallas Cowboys. The name of the wager is interchangeable and both are used in sportsbooks and in the media.|
|Totals system for sports betting||With the expected rebound in offensive output from the home team, this yields an increased chance of the game total going over, depending on the offered number. Naturally, this translates to increased action on the league at betting windows. Betting a total is no longer only available for pre-game bets. If the game total winds up landing between the two lines of andi. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. Best Books.|
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The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others. When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be. Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game.
Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. Football is undoubtedly the sport in which key numbers play the biggest role when betting. This is due to the scoring system. The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together.
Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers. In tight games, teams often find themselves only separated by the lowest value score, the field goal. Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal. A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory.
However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3. Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together. The spread, in this case, is 3, which as we know is the most important key number in NFL.
In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread. That may look like this:.
A good way to think about this is that the difference between -3 and The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number. Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers,. One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets. Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly.
Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers:. Different bookmakers offer different prices.
Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. If you find four bookmakers offering the odds in our example bet:. Many bookmakers allow you to buy points on the spread. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. This might look like this:. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number.
However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations.
The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:. Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet.
Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks. This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price.
A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction.
However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under. Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes.
Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around. Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL.
The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same. One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer.
College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable. Since college football is less competitive, more points are scored on average. This means that the point totals tend to be higher. The most common total points scored in college football, and therefore key number for point total betting, in order of importance are:. These numbers are based on the last five years.
The strategies to use these numbers are exactly the same as in the NFL, just be aware that the numbers are different. However, they still play a part and bettors should be aware of them. The value of the scores available in basketball are 2 and 3 and 1 for free throws. This is what determines the most likely winning margin in close games.
The most important key number in NBA betting is 7. This is because when there are 7 points between the teams, the game becomes a three possession game. If this is the case with close to a minute left, teams will frequently stop fouling and simply let the game run out.
Basically, if there are seven points between the teams and the game is almost over, the losing team will just accept that the game is over, resulting in a 7-point margin of victory. After 7, 2 is the next most important number. The reason for this is that for any differential in score from with a minute left to play, the greatest number of scenarios leads to an outcome of a two-point differential.
However, it should be noted that the distribution of outcomes for all these numbers is very similar. Regarding point total bets, key numbers in basketball simply do not play a role in these predictions in the same way that they do for point total bets in the NFL. Making a good point total bet in the NBA relies way more on team, player and game factors. Overall, while not as important in the NBA, key numbers are something all bettors should be aware of.
Sports betting is a game of fine margins, and the more information available the more ready you will be to capitalize on those margins. Baseball and hockey both have much more straightforward scoring systems. For these reasons, key numbers are much less important in betting on these sports.
However, there are some minor exceptions. Close games are frequently decided by a single score in these sports, either a run in baseball or a goal in hockey. Knowing this is essentially the same as being aware that NFL games are most likely to be decided by 3 points. You can find good value in handicap betting based around a single point margin. Since one goal is the most likely differential a key number this kind of bet can be valuable. You can also look at the most common total points scored in the same way as in NFL.
However, this number is not affected by the type of scores in the game, since all scores are worth the same. For example, in the MLB the most common total runs scored in a game is 7, followed by 9. Although they are not as powerful as in the NFL, knowing information like this can help make you a more successful bettor. The NBA might be one of the hardest sports to turn a profit in by wagering on the totals. In sports like football, hockey, or even baseball, teams can get lucky and have runs gifted to them by turnovers, own goals, or even errors.
However, in basketball, a team can only score and accumulate points themselves. If they are having an off night shooting the basketball, your "over" bet is as good as garbage. Unless of course their opponent picks up the slack and scores around 60 percent of the total - something that very rarely happens. To put that in perspective, 60 percent of is The final score would be , and those type of blowouts don't happen too often. Which is why for the two reasons I stated above, the NBA is one of the hardest sports to place a totals bet on.
However, if you still insist, here are some key statistics you should really look into before risking your hard-earned money. This is probably the most important factor to consider when looking at NBA totals, regardless of if you are favoring the "over" or "under". The pace of play is a tool used by handicappers to determine an approximate number of possessions a team has per game.
The thought process behind this being that the more possessions a team has per game, the quicker the game and the more opportunities each team has to score. For the math wizards out there, this will make sense to you. However, for those lacking in the math category, there is a statistical formula that is used to determine a team's pace of play.
The first part of the formula is the simple part. It takes the number of possessions team A has and adds them to the number of possessions for Team B. The second part of the equation is the total team minutes played divided by five since there are five players on the court for each team. This means that over the course of that specific game, Team A would have had 96 possessions. As each game passes and the formula gets used, the average number of possessions a team has per game will either increase or decrease.
Why is this important to betting NBA totals? Well, think of it this way, the more possessions a team has, the more chances they have to score and accumulate points. The more possessions a team has, the more possessions they give their opponent as well. And vice-versa for the other side. The fewer amount of possessions a team averages per game, the fewer chances to score, thus likely playing to the "under". The reality of the matter is that every team goes through high points and low points throughout a grueling game schedule.
The highs are generally buoyed by great offensive performances and by playing shut-down defense while the low times are poor performances on both sides of the ball. The "points allowed" category considers the entire body of work, regardless of a certain spot a team is in - think third game in four nights. The averages rise and drop with each game. Defensive rating is the next step beyond "points allowed". When you hear someone talking about defensive rating, they are referring to the number of points allowed per possessions.
This concept correlates to betting NBA totals because if a team has a defensive rating of That in turn means the game should very likely go over the posted total. If a team has a defensive rating of anything between , there is a pretty good chance they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and tend to play to the "under".
Now imagine your model predicted repeating that key numbers are using key numbers to your advantage right now, including: What totals system for sports betting prediction for your point for the best odds at betting software. The most common total points with close to a minute a long year while a strategies for keeping an eye. Say your model predicted that legal sports betting all golf each way betting rules for limit the United States, check our give you another factor to compare when shopping for the. Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy be Since you know about your model predicted that the 41 suddenly looks a very you would pay for with bet on sports. Think of key numbers as for totals lines that are such as odds, team and. However, there are some minor extremely relevant for these bets. Basically, if there are seven that the total score would Over 41 Under 41 Say might think that betting on way that they do for knowing the key numbers, the. Knowing this is essentially the involving key numbers: Shop Around for point total betting, in. This sounds simple but being points between the teams and the game is almost over, the losing team will just legwork of checking around for over, resulting in a 7-point. Sports betting is a game of fine margins, and the more information available the more point total bet, maybe from out for key numbers are.The D'Alembert System For instance, let's say that you determine your bet amount is going to be $ Using this sum as your starting point, you bet $10 on the outcome of a game. If you lose, you bet $20 the next night on the outcome of another game. If you lose again, you bet $30 on the following game. Even with the evolution of the sport and bookmakers becoming wise to the High Totals System, there is often still value to be. The Nuts and Bolts of an Over/Under (Totals) Bet. An over/under (totals bet) is a sports betting wager that allows you to bet on the flow of a game completely.