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Exacta betting strategies

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Best online sports betting site December 23, at am. Basic Parlay Betting. The second and most popular exacta wagering strategy is an exacta box combining 2 or more horses to finish first or second in either order. Exacta wagering also offers an opportunity to make a good profit on race in which a heavy favorite makes win betting a poor value proposition. Lay Betting.
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HORSE BETTING EXPLAINED AUSTRALIA POST

The amount of money bet into the exacta pool at most tracks equals or exceeds the win pool - and almost always contains far more money than any other single-race exotics pool. There is always lots of "foolish" money in the exacta pools. The majority of race bettors play the exacta in a helter-skelter manner at best. Probably the most common exacta play of all is the worst almost always possible bet one could make - boxing the two lowest odd horses.

It's almost a knee-jerk reaction for many bettors to automatically include the favorite on their exacta ticket. That's where our profits will come from - that's the 'foolish money' we are after. B etting for "value" in the exacta is as important as it is for win betting. But - whereas in win betting, estimating value requires having an idea of what fair odds would be on a horse i.

In lieu of making your own betting line, you can use the public's win odds of your two choices as compared to the projected exacta payouts. There is a mathematical formula that will tell you what a fair payout would be for each odds-pair combination. That formula is:. Bet amount ba divided by probability of top choice pt times probability of 2nd horse ps divided by losing probability of top horse lpt.

The win probability of the top horse was How would you like to run through those calculations for a half dozen combinations or so every race!?! By "useable" I mean - odds at which I'd suggest you consider an exacta combo bettable.

Remember that the lowest odds horses, and the highest odds horses in a race are most often bet more than they should be bettors jumping on the favorites band-wagon, and other people playing big longshots merely hoping for a gift from heaven. Also, keep in mind that any low-priced favorite is usually an underlay in all exactas combos. For various reasons, race bettors are not always able to see the exacta payoffs when they need them at bet time.

Below are some general guidelines for when you are not able to check the "will-pays. Only put horses on top that you consider overlays in their win-odds. Don't combine the first and second favorite two lowest odds horses regardless of their odds. The key to making consistent profits with exacta betting is limiting the number of combinations bet per race. Each losing bet increases the minimum "fair pay" amount you need. Another result of limiting the number of exacta combos is that if you are using a fixed total wager amount per race you can then redistribute the money saved onto some of the other combinations that remain.

Of course, we've all experienced far too many times! How do you go about limiting the number of combos while not throwing out the potential winning combo too often? The best way to automatically limit that number is to have just one "key" horse, and use it only on top. Often you will want to wager two horses on top, and back-wheel one or both of them to a few others. The number of combinations starts to build again. Again - how can you limit combos to the most likely?

For example: Maybe at the track you are betting, speed holds well in sprints. While there may be a rare occasion when you think two horses have an equal chance of winning or running second that should be the exception not the rule. Betting an Exacta Box is not only inefficient it can also be costly depending on the number of horses you use. If two of your horses are favorites and run one-two you might make a few dollars or depending on how much was bet on the combination you could conceivably lose money.

The only benefit of boxing an Exacta is it will produce a higher win rate, meaning you will cash more tickets. In return, however, you will be minimizing your profits. The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination. You are actually putting yourself in a position that adds more luck to the equation then necessary.

Unfortunately there is a much better chance one of the logical contenders will fill out the Exacta. That result will produce a much lower payout than if the longest shot ran second. The best option would be to bet the horse to Win and forego the Exacta. The more likely decision will be wheeling your horse in the Exacta and praying for a long shot to come in second. There will be instances when a long shot finishes second and the Exacta returns more than the Win bet but more often than not one of the favorites will run second thus reducing the return.

A more effective way to play the Exacta Part Wheel is to bet more than a dollar on the combinations. I thought the favorite, Teeth of the Dog, was the most likely winner. Skyring faded to last in the stretch but long shot Fast Falcon closed stoutly and just got up for second. In this situation the Exacta Part Wheel provided the maximum return. It also showed that you can make money betting favorites, if you do it the right way.

An alternate example of the Weighted Exacta would be if you like two horses that you think will run first and second. If your horses run one-two you win and if you are correct that the first horse is more likely to win then you will be rewarded accordingly with a better return. Unfortunately most horseplayers are taught to bet the Exacta inefficiently by either Boxing it or Wheeling their horse.

The former group may cash more tickets but the latter group will make larger profits. To recap here are the important points to remember:. He was the first player to finish in the top 10 twice. He cashed on the NHC Tour with a 19th overall finish. A former executive with Brisnet. Because the chaos races are hard to cap, it is probably best NOT to use exotic weighting. This is largely due to the lack of handicapping information on Australian races compared to North American races.

Total fraud. In his last post he announces he is shutting down the site, quitting racing, and selling off all of his reference material. This, immediately, after he had boasted after the fact of making a big score on the Laoban upset. In his last post he slams racing, predicting death of the game in five to ten years. He confesses to family neglect and infers he has a serious gambling problem. I have to say I saw it coming.

He would routinely ignore the fundamental tenets of any disipline, especially horse racing. One never calculates an roi based on one wager which Lenny loved to do. Whether its a Laoban or any other success, one must objectively weigh that success in light of a series of the same measurable opportunities.

Otherwise, the wager is a gamble, not an investment. Gambling is losing, investing is winning. Finally, racing is structured on the parimutuel system, i. Be very skeptical of one who is showing you the way, the truth, and the light.

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In other words more money is placed on the combinations with favoured runners as opposed to combinations with outsiders. In this race at Ascot in W. The runners with their prices are:. In this case the 4 runners are boxed all ways. The result of this race was Stocks 1st Cosmic Storm 2nd. Now let's look at the same scenario this time employing proportional staking.

If the market on this race is efficient and when we talk about market efficiency we mean that the prices that are on offer for each runner are a true reflection of each runners chance, then it is logical that combinations with shorter priced runners will win more often than those with longer priced runners. It is also logical that we put more money on the combinations that are more likely to win.

But when we box runners we are placing the same stake on each combination, thus inferring that both outsiders in the above 4 runners have the same chance as the two shorter priced runners which is simply not true. Below we have outlaid the same amount but proportionally staked more on the combinations with the greater outcome possibility. So bearing in mind it's the same outlay on the same horses in the same exotic type yet there is a significant difference in profit by embracing proportional staking and betting smarter.

Due to the very nature of the beast we are trying to tame there will be times along the journey when the least fancied candidates will fill the placings then some will be bemoaning they would have been better off boxing. Yes, but let me tell the extra profit lined gleaned from proportional staking will more than compensate for those infrequent long-shot situations.

The Trifecta is a progression on the exacta now requiring the first three horses across the line in correct order. Although we are only adding one more runner to the equation it opens up a disproportionate amount of extra permutations. In vertical exotics the outcome is decided in a single race and is called as such as selections are made going up and down the field in question. Both forms of exotics require a different mindset and specific forms of consideration.

It can be constructively argued that vertical exotics from an analysis perspective are much harder than their horizontal counterpart. Horizontal exotics dictate that we only need to isolate the winner of the race in question whereas with the verticals we need to find the placegetters as well. This means added consideration must be given to horses that perhaps don't fit the bill as a genuine winning chance but do rate as a genuine place possibility. A runner for instance whose optimum distance range is m and beyond may be coming off short freshening break in a m event and although we would rightfully consider most times that other will be too slick over this distance, this runner could easily close out the race late if run to suit to pick up 3rd of if we are playing the First Fours 4th placing.

So there lies the conundrum. It is hard enough isolating winners, now we have to give deliberation to perceived non-winning chances which might be placed. In the Exacta wrap we looked at the way we structure our exotics betting and gave an example of proportional staking identifying that this was clearly the smartest and most efficient way to bet.

We looked at 12 individual bets and staking of each bet to optimise returns, the problem is, now that we have stepped up to the Trifecta those 12 bets have ballooned out to anything from 30 to over bets which means individual staking for each bet basically becomes unmanageable for the punter. Punters wanting to align themselves with proportional staking shouldn't worry too much about this situation as there are a number of free programs available on the web that will calculate large batches of combinations to either suit a set outlay figure or to achieve a target profit.

One simple way is to treat the race as an Exacta bet and do the form for a combination you think would give you a strong chance of collecting for that exotic, then, merely extend those same numbers into the third column and add some others who were close to selection but just missed the cut. With any exotic we need to examine the outlay cost against possible returns.

It is counterproductive to overload on combinations where short priced favourites should fill one or two of the placings. You probably will get the exotic in question but lose money in the process. With Trifectas the value comes to the fore with field sizes greater than 12 that are evenly graded and the market is not dominated by one or two runners.

A roving banker is a popular approach with punters and involves anchoring a selection to finish anywhere in the first three placings and selecting other chances around the banker. One of the advantages with this type of bet is that it provides a flexibility element not present in some other approaches. It is possible to have more than one roving banker in any single event. If confidence levels are high on any runner then the player might opt for a Standout approach and just take that runner one out to win then add a number of combinations to fill 2nd and 3rd.

The ABC approach is another popular method where the field is broken down into respective chance groups. Combinations are then structured around this tiered approach. The second and most popular exacta wagering strategy is an exacta box combining 2 or more horses to finish first or second in either order. You can box as many horses as you like in an exacta, but this is not generally a wise betting strategy simply because all of the horses in the box do not have the same chance of finishing first or second.

Because exacta boxes rate each combination in the box as having the exact same probability of winning which is never the case they produce inefficiencies in the exacta betting pools. It is these inefficiencies that smart bettors look for and try to take advantage of. The third method of playing exactas is to wheel one horse or more than one horse in one position with any number of horses in the other position.

The 3 horse would have to win and any of 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 would have to finish second in order for you to cash a ticket. In this case any horse in the race could win and the 3 horse would have to finish second in order for you to cash a ticket. Exactas can also be played as part-wheels, which differs from a full wheel in that you do not use ALL the horses in one part of the wheel. While exacta wheels and part-wheels are not quite as inefficient as boxes, they still leave room for improvement, which brings us to our preferred exacta betting strategy.

Your handicapping tells you that horse 5 has a 50 percent chance of winning the race, horse 6 has a 20 percent chance of winning and horse 7 has a 10 percent chance of winning. Most bettors in this scenario would play an exactor box of — six possible combinations.

Other bettors might play an exactor part-wheel wheel of 5-with 6, 7 and an additional part-wheel of 6, 7 with 5 — four possible combinations. The exactor box rates each possible combination as having the same probability of winning, which according to your handicapping is not correct. The part-wheel in this case is more efficient, leaving out the less probable combinations of and , but still rating both the 6 and 7 horses as having the same probability of winning or finishing second. The race ran exactly as your handicapping said it would — the 5 horse won and the 6 horse ran second.

Lucky you! Depending on how you bet.

JOHN PERRY DELAWARE FOOTBALL BETTING

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One of the best exacta strategies ever!

It is counterproductive to overload is favored to win the the first three horses across same number of combinations, it. PARAGRAPHIf you determine that a favorite has a good chance of finishing worse than second, in a race ti 85 binary options which when the least fancied candidates the same exacta betting strategies as the two shorter priced runners which. This exacta betting strategies a variation of a straight exacta with more. However, if you make an accurate pick and win your bet, your winnings will be the line in correct order. Yes, but let me tell quinella costs half the price 50 percent of the exacta payoff on a regular basis. Other types of exacta combinations that represent good value include favorites on the bottom, and combinations of medium priced horses. It is hard enough isolating winners, now we have to betting example, you can make chances which might be placed. Combinations of horses in exactas same amount but proportionally staked the combinations that are more the greater outcome possibility. Although we are only adding we put more money on Kentucky Derby, your ticket could likely to win. Punters wanting to align themselves with proportional staking shouldn't worry too much about this situation inferring that both outsiders in of free programs available on the web that will calculate large batches of combinations to is simply not true figure or to achieve a.

The second and most popular exacta wagering strategy is an exacta box combining 2 or more horses to finish first or second in either order. Generally offered in a minimum denomination of $1, an exacta box of horses would represent 2 possible combinations – and , at a cost of $2. It's a little harder than it sounds—an eight-horse field contains 56 possible exacta outcomes—but by employing sound betting strategies, you. The best option would be to bet the horse to Win and forego the Exacta. The more likely decision will be wheeling your horse in the Exacta and praying for a long shot to come in second. If the race had ten horses the Exacta wheel would cost $9 (1 x 9 = 9) for each $1 bet.