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Prime betting opportunities for exactas and quinellas occur when horses are over bet in the win pool. Also similar to win betting, if an exacta or quinella payoff listed on the tote board before the race is lower than you think it should be, it represents poor value and should probably be left alone.
The worst value in exacta betting is usually the favorite on top in the win spot with the second and third choices on the bottom in second place. These types of combinations often pay lower than they should. Another type of exacta bet that often pays less than it should is the combination of two longshots.
While multiple-horse exacta boxes are thought by many handicappers to be poor wagers, due to money being wasted on combinations that have little chance of winning, there is a situation when these types of bets can be very lucrative. If you determine that a favorite has a good chance of running worse than second in a race in which the secondary contenders are also weak, you can make some good scores using multiple-horse exacta boxes.
Other types of exacta combinations that represent good value include favorites on the bottom, and combinations of medium priced horses. The latter almost always produces payoffs higher than it should. If you have determined the favorite has a good chance of finishing worse than second, try playing some boxes of medium priced horses with smaller saver combinations including the favorite on the bottom of the exacta.
Quinella betting involves slightly different yet still lucrative strategies. Most people think because a quinella costs half the price of an exacta for the same number of combinations, it will pay 50 percent less. While this often the case, you can take advantage of this thought pattern to make money in situations that include: combinations of longshots, combinations of low-oddscontenders, and over bet favorites combined with underbet contenders. In races where both exactas and quinellas are offered, sharp handicappers will play both wagers profitably by combining underbet horses on top of overbet horses in the exactas and combining the same horses in quinellas.
If the overbet horse does happen finish first in the exacta, the exacta will pay lower, but the quinella will often pay more than 50 percent of the exacta price. Combinations of low-priced contenders in quinellas also pay more than 50 percent of the exacta payoff on a regular basis. Pairs of longshots in the exacta are often overbet, which produces lower payoffs than expected, while pairs of longshots in the quinella are notoriously underbet, leading to some lucrative scores. Combinations of horses in exactas and quinellas can be bet in two ways, with boxes and wheels.
The cost of an exacta wheel combining one horse on top with five horses on the bottom is the number of horses in the second spot multiplied by the amount of your wager per combination. Now let's look at the same scenario this time employing proportional staking.
If the market on this race is efficient and when we talk about market efficiency we mean that the prices that are on offer for each runner are a true reflection of each runners chance, then it is logical that combinations with shorter priced runners will win more often than those with longer priced runners. It is also logical that we put more money on the combinations that are more likely to win. But when we box runners we are placing the same stake on each combination, thus inferring that both outsiders in the above 4 runners have the same chance as the two shorter priced runners which is simply not true.
Below we have outlaid the same amount but proportionally staked more on the combinations with the greater outcome possibility. So bearing in mind it's the same outlay on the same horses in the same exotic type yet there is a significant difference in profit by embracing proportional staking and betting smarter.
Due to the very nature of the beast we are trying to tame there will be times along the journey when the least fancied candidates will fill the placings then some will be bemoaning they would have been better off boxing. Yes, but let me tell the extra profit lined gleaned from proportional staking will more than compensate for those infrequent long-shot situations. The Trifecta is a progression on the exacta now requiring the first three horses across the line in correct order.
Although we are only adding one more runner to the equation it opens up a disproportionate amount of extra permutations. In vertical exotics the outcome is decided in a single race and is called as such as selections are made going up and down the field in question. Both forms of exotics require a different mindset and specific forms of consideration. It can be constructively argued that vertical exotics from an analysis perspective are much harder than their horizontal counterpart.
Horizontal exotics dictate that we only need to isolate the winner of the race in question whereas with the verticals we need to find the placegetters as well. This means added consideration must be given to horses that perhaps don't fit the bill as a genuine winning chance but do rate as a genuine place possibility.
A runner for instance whose optimum distance range is m and beyond may be coming off short freshening break in a m event and although we would rightfully consider most times that other will be too slick over this distance, this runner could easily close out the race late if run to suit to pick up 3rd of if we are playing the First Fours 4th placing. So there lies the conundrum. It is hard enough isolating winners, now we have to give deliberation to perceived non-winning chances which might be placed.
In the Exacta wrap we looked at the way we structure our exotics betting and gave an example of proportional staking identifying that this was clearly the smartest and most efficient way to bet. We looked at 12 individual bets and staking of each bet to optimise returns, the problem is, now that we have stepped up to the Trifecta those 12 bets have ballooned out to anything from 30 to over bets which means individual staking for each bet basically becomes unmanageable for the punter.
Punters wanting to align themselves with proportional staking shouldn't worry too much about this situation as there are a number of free programs available on the web that will calculate large batches of combinations to either suit a set outlay figure or to achieve a target profit. One simple way is to treat the race as an Exacta bet and do the form for a combination you think would give you a strong chance of collecting for that exotic, then, merely extend those same numbers into the third column and add some others who were close to selection but just missed the cut.
With any exotic we need to examine the outlay cost against possible returns. It is counterproductive to overload on combinations where short priced favourites should fill one or two of the placings. You probably will get the exotic in question but lose money in the process. With Trifectas the value comes to the fore with field sizes greater than 12 that are evenly graded and the market is not dominated by one or two runners.
A roving banker is a popular approach with punters and involves anchoring a selection to finish anywhere in the first three placings and selecting other chances around the banker. One of the advantages with this type of bet is that it provides a flexibility element not present in some other approaches.
It is possible to have more than one roving banker in any single event. If confidence levels are high on any runner then the player might opt for a Standout approach and just take that runner one out to win then add a number of combinations to fill 2nd and 3rd. The ABC approach is another popular method where the field is broken down into respective chance groups. Combinations are then structured around this tiered approach.
With any of these approaches punters should still adopt the proportional staking model for best long term returns. Although we are against boxing we have added the chart below more from point to give the player an idea of increased costing by adding 1 runner at a time to the equation. The First Four is again a further extension on previous covered Trifecta.
It requires the backer to select as the name implies the first four runners past the post in order, or as someone put it, it's a Trifecta on steroids. Like its horizontal counterpart the Quaddie it holds the attraction of huge payouts.