Obviously, there is an increased chance that a positive test could impact the teammates compared to an injury, but I think we will trust the teams and league to communicate that as timely as possible. It has the potential to be a much bigger problem. But at that point, the problem becomes greater for the league, which will also provide guidance for the books.
If LeBron tests positive and is out until he clears two negative tests but no other Laker or even a small number of Lakers test positive, play continues. The occurrence of a small or otherwise expected number of COVID cases will not require a decision to suspend or cancel the resumption of the season. The NBA and NBPA will continue to monitor the campus environment and season restart and, based on circumstances over the course of the resumption of the season, may discuss any modifications to the campus environment or these protocols if the parties and their medical experts agree such measures are necessary to promote safety e.
Game 7s will be particularly challenging to handicap. Home court is no longer a thing. How does that impact things? That being absent definitely will have an impact on some lines. This decrease has largely been driven by better travel planning and more centralized decision-making, leading to greater consistency and less bias towards home support.
Therefore, the impact on lines in the current landscape is less than it would have been in previous years. But as for how this particular scenario will help teams? Avello noted that totals may be more impacted than the spread in this scenario, with a potential lean towards lowering the number in some instances. The other possibility is in play, however, according to two coaches consulted by The Action Network. Meanwhile, Dallas went on the road compared to at home, so their chances might be better based on that model.
This is the sentiment bookmakers are operating with, understanding they may have to adjust, perhaps drastically, on the fly. For now, most odds reflect what they were back on the morning of March 11, before contact tracing, before masks and social distancing, before Rudy Gobert tested positive, before America stopped cold. Everything is based on full steam. Sports Betting. Best Books. Matt Moore. Download App. Question 1: If a star player tests positive, are those futures, series, or game bets still valid?
All bets will stand provided the season is finished as planned. In general, I expect the majority of wagers to stand. For player awards, etc. Futures are based on all the teams participating. But for that to happen, the games have to stay intact. If you played a game and the player is out, you have action. A player prop will be a refund.
If the games are held, the bets are actionable. If you know the home-field advantage is real, so do oddsmakers, and they set the prices accordingly. That means betting home teams can be costly, and while these bets win more often, the profits are smaller and the risks are high. Betting on teams that are almost a lock at home is a good idea if you can get a good price. However, finding road underdogs with a shot at winning, at attractive prices, can be much more profitable.
But at the same time, try to avoid high prices on home teams that offer very little reward for what you have to risk. The teams playing at home earned it and are often better. Plus, all of the things that make home advantage real become even more pronounced, particularly the support of the home crowd, who often take things to another level come playoff time. Oddsmakers may overvalue the home-park and home-ice advantage, offering better prices on road underdogs than they should.
NBA teams enjoy more of a home-court advantage than any other pro sport. However, college football is program-dependent. However, the best teams win on the road more often than not as well, skewing the numbers, and making the home field look like much less of an advantage for the majority of college football programs. You can bet oddsmakers are taking more than a first glance when they set the lines and so should you.
Ask yourself:. Finally, ask yourself if oddsmakers have baked in any home-field advantages into the lines and adjust your betting accordingly. Some football teams had a huge home winning percentage in the 60s and 70s. Other basketball teams have been dominant at home in a more modern era. A group of statisticians came up with the following top-five home winning percentages in all of the sports through :. You can see from this list, the NBA enjoys the largest home-court advantage in all of sports.
Looking deeper, you can see all five teams are in one-sport cities where they truly enjoy the focused support of the hometown fans. Interestingly, these are all considered small market teams, suggesting that market dominance is much more important than market size when it comes to crowd support and the home-field advantage it helps create.
Tennessee teams enjoy a home field advantage. Take a look at some stats for the following Tennessee-based teams and decide for yourself:. Home-field advantage most definitely matters less when there is no crowd in attendance. No crowd means a lot less noise.
In turn, that means players can communicate better, lessening the advantage a loud crowd gives a home team. For the NBA and NHL bubbles, travel has also been taken out of the equation , putting a damper on the home-court advantage even further.
Home Field Advantage in Sports Betting. What exactly is home field advantage? Are home games a real advantage for sports bettors? Real-life factors can make the home-field advantage just as pointed. What is the home field advantage worth? Should I always bet on the home team? Does home field advantage mean more in the playoffs?
What sport does home field advantage matter most? Which team has the advantage at neutral venues? Does the time zone or weather give one team an advantage over the other? How big will the crowd be, are they likely to have an impact on the game, and will they support one side over the other?
Is it a new arena, an old one, a big cavernous stadium, or a small one? What kind of impact would you expect this to have on each team? Which team could somehow enjoy a neutral-site advantage? Which pro sports team has the biggest home field advantage?
The home fans are a major factor for some teams while fan apathy and empty arenas are a point spread influence for others. There are several long road trips that every NBA team has to deal with during the course of the season.
Teams that play several consecutive road contests tend to play worse on the back end of these trips, thus increasing the point spread value for these home teams in the eyes of the oddsmakers. These long road trips can be even more pronounced when it is a team from the far west taking a long trip east or vice-versa.
If the Detroit Pistons were to travel to Portland and play one road game, who knows, the spread might be close to 'pick'em or Portland might be a small favorite. But if Detroit has just made a West Coast road trip where they played the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and then at the end of all that in a week they play Portland, I think you would see that the handicappers are certainly going to look at that as more of an advantage for Portland than if Detroit just showed up to play them on the first night.
Since there are only five players on the court for each team at any time, a key injury on a team can cause a huge fluctuation in the point spread for a particular game. A superstar that is injured can mean a difference of as many as six or seven points in the line. Even the NBA's toughest players will likely miss a few games throughout the course of the season. If a key player is out for the home team, its home value is significantly decreased. At the same time, a visiting team with an injured superstar can make a home team an even larger favorite in the eyes of those that set the lines.
Home underdogs have been considered a sharp play in the NFL for many years. However, Beil contends that the home dog is not as much of a factor when it comes to NBA betting. In the NBA it probably fluctuates more and it depends more on the circumstances. As a result, bettors can find greater value when they buy low on road teams. In addition to home teams, the betting public loves favorites. It does make sense. Because the public loves home favorites, bettors can often find more value in betting on road underdogs.
Bettors that can find the right road dog have been pretty successful this season. The away underdog is against the spread so far this season. They have also been a road underdog nine times this season. Their record so far is ATS. Find teams like the Bulls and the Thunder that play well on the road. Just like home teams and favorites, the betting public also loves Overs.
The casual bettor is a fan of the game that wants to see excitement, which is really code for a high-scoring game that is fun to watch. Again, sportsbooks are completely aware of this and will shade numbers toward Overs. The best Under bets are on divisional games. Teams in the same division play each other four times per season. With the number of games comes some familiarity with the opponent.
Teams can game plan and defenses know what to expect. When you add in a total that falls by a point because of sharp money, the Under has tremendous value. If you also look at Offensive Pace data and find a team in the bottom half of the league, you have a no-brainer. Divisional Unders that experience a point drop are a strong value for bettors.
If you really want to succeed with your NBA betting this season, read the injury report daily. It is released three times each day, the last one coming at PM ET. Teams have to release their starting lineup 30 minutes before tip-off. Oftentimes, you can find out if a player will miss a game by checking the injury report throughout the day.
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