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Sportsbooks have to defend against one-sided action. But this is the NFL. Do you know how often underdogs in that range spring upsets? All those separate bets lose if an upset happens. A 6-point favorite is likely to be a 5. Generally speaking, most new bettors or recreational bettors focus on those two losing strategies — trying to bring all favorites down so it feels safer to take them, and trying to ask favorites just below a TD to win straight up because superior teams are supposed to win.
Quants have done studies on teasers since they were first offered, first by hand, then by computer. The general lessons from those studies were as follows:. The exceptions? It was realized very early that you could put the odds in your favor in the very tight window that allowed you to cross both the key numbers of 3 and 7 in one fell swoop.
The success rate for teaser nominees that crossed both the 3 and the 7 was a moneymaker. If you use only teams that meet those parameters and use all the possible two-teamers they could create, that would put the odds in your favor. A lot of games land right on the 7, and pushes lose as always, check the house rules at your preferred establishment.
What about -9 down to -3? Same thing with the 3 — you need to sweep both parts of your teaser to cash. The 3 and the 7 are the most common final results in the NFL. You need to focus on options that put both within the adjustment window. One of the ironies of NFL betting is that confident team side and totals bettors attack soft lines early in the season.
Then it gets more challenging later in the season as the lines better match on-the-field realities. But for teasers, the value of taking six points to put in your pocket gets stronger as the year goes on. Tighter lines add value to crossing the 3 and the 7. Deeper in the season, moving dogs in the plus 1. If you see a solid, widely available line of Fading a disrespected favorite with a respected dog at plus 8.
You can move seven points and pay some extra juice. Three-team point teasers used to be very popular with the public. Hilton should exceed 1, receiving yards. With Rivers, Keenan Allen has done that in three straight seasons, so Hilton has a reasonable opportunity to follow suit. Fournette is a terrific running back, make no mistake. But he only scored three touchdowns in to 1, rushing yards , and the Jaguars could very well be trailing in games often in meaning — rushing the ball may be an afterthought.
Heck, Fournette was rumored to be traded last season, so the franchise may not be too in love with him. Shoot for the under on his rushing total. Last season, Patrick Mahomes "only" notched 26 touchdowns passes. In an odd way, Mahomes won a Super Bowl in a "down year" by his individual standards.
In , he will reaffirm his aerial supremacy and account for more than 36 touchdowns. He better — he's the half-billion-dollar man. This prognostication does not mean Ruggs won't be good or explosive. He probably will be. In fact, only two first-rounders have achieved this since , Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper. Ruggs will be fun to watch, but he'll check in south of receiving yards during his maiden voyage. The Chargers are giving it a whirl with Justin Herbert awaiting a patch-over at some point in the near future.
Los Angeles indeed has an assortment of playmakers, but uncertainty at the quarterback position will level them out at a or record. Aaron Donald has won two of these trophies already, but let's sign him up for one more. He totally transcends the defensive tackle position and adds an unholy strategic advantage to the Rams defensive line. In terms of his versatility, his skill set is akin to a tight end than can go up and grab deep balls like Randy Moss on a consistent basis. And, he's only Miami is amidst an admitted rebuild.
The talent on their depth chart is no-frills; that's what typically happens during a rebuild. The Dolphins won't necessarily be trashy, but they will not reach seven wins. Not yet, anyway. The Vikings enter with an undisputed starter at quarterback for the third straight season. This continuity hasn't happened in Minnesota since the days of Daunte Culpepper. Head coach Mike Zimmer will ensure the defense is stingy. For a normal team, these ingredients have written all over them.
But let's not be foolish. The Patriots will find a way. Bill Belichick wants you to think the team is rotten. In the meantime, he will continue to beat up on the AFC East and find a pathway to another division title. Photo by Kevin C. One of these days or games, Drew Brees isn't going to have "it" anymore. Or, he will be retired by then.
Reference Peyton Manning's individual performance in Legends that unceremoniously find their abilities diminished typically don't win Super Bowls as did Manning. Brees could regress finally this season or the Saints could be upended by the new-look Buccaneers a couple of times.
In any event, New Orleans won't reach 11 wins. Aside from fumbles, Daniel Jones was quite good for a rookie last year. We know Saquon Barkley cannot be tamed. And there's a new sheriff in town with Joe Judge from New England. If Judge can shore up the Giants defense and Jones-Barkley mature into the duo New York hopes, the Giants will have not have difficulty going at least Put simply, there are too many moving pieces that need to happen for the Jets to be above.
Sam Darnold has to take the next step, Le'Veon Bell must play better than he did in , and somebody has to anchor the defense as we thought C. Mosley would. This is dicey. Sanders is a dual-threat scatback type, so he could rack up one of those David Johnson statlines from a few years back. Indeed, Sanders will break out into stardom, but a lot it could come via pass-catching.
However, with Jordan Howard gone, Sanders should get the bulk of the carriers. Bet on him surpassing the 1,yard barrier. File this one under "least certain" of this analysis. Gutsy prophecy. Not so fast — have you forgotten the wherewithal of Mike Tomlin? Roethlisberger is back, and we will soon find out if that's a good or bad thing.
Also, Tomlin's defense never struggles. Head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to run the football. Couple that with Deebo Samuel's injury status up in the air and new wideout Brandon Aiyuk "just a rookie," and the 49ers will not be a team seeking to light up the air with a bunch of pass attempts.
It's time. The man owns the second-best passer rating of all-time. When a game is close late in the fourth quarter, you know Russell Wilson will win the thing. We pretend, for the past couple of years, that the Seahawks have a great defense to complement Wilson. They used to, but the Legion of Boom is dead. Wilson has received nary a single MVP vote in his eight-year career.
Voters have some makeup work to do. He wins the award in When that happened, Moss only set the single-season record for receiving touchdowns. Head coach Bruce Arians is due to bust through to a conference championship, and the Buccaneers run defense in was secretly wonderful. Mike Vrabel's team is not a fluke. They have a running back that maintains a time-of-possession advantage for the team. Brown had a tremendous rookie showing. And, Vrabel will ensure the defense is top-notch.
Whether it's Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins, the Redskins will look more efficient on the field in their anonymous uniforms. That's because Ron Rivera is in charge. However, the Football Team still doesn't have enough talent to surpass six wins.
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