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The main takeaway from the article: Brady plans every detail of his life so he can play football as long as possible, and he'll do anything he can to get an edge. He diets all year round, takes scheduled naps in the offseason, never misses a workout, eats what his teammates call "birdseed," and does cognitive exercises to keep his brain sharp. Brady struggles to unwind after games and practices. He's still processing, thinking about what's next.

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As I just showed in this post, her posts are anything but well-researched. More than that or less than that, depending on how you want to look at it , they are incredibly misleading, which is not surprising given how proud she is of the efforts of herself and her fellow antivaccinationists in eroding confidence in the U.

Every study that comes out, she has to find a way to twist it into a pretzel of "evidence" supporting her belief that vaccines cause autism. In fact, Dachel is all about false "balance" when it comes to vaccine reporting. Actually, I love the Internet. Why else would I spend so much effort blogging? What you don't like is that the very Internet that allows cranks like Anne Dachel to spew their pseudoscience, misinformation, and cherry-picked data to slavering sycophants also allows me to refute their nonsense, as I did in this post.

I'm sorry. That was just so funny. I can't recall having seen a better example of the arrogance of ignorance in a very, very long time. They are slitting their own throats and only driving mainstream media away from them. Usually, each of these crank letters are reproduced in their entirety on AoA affiliated websites No wonder then, that the only interviews their editors and Dachel are able to generate, are with other crank hosts of other crank websites. Anne Dachel?

You must be reading a different Anne Dachel than the one I've seen. You see, the media editor for Age of Autism quite regularly trolls online news articles to drop turds of misinformation before running off elsewhere. I tried for a while to keep up with her, but I just don't have the time to do so. Much of what she says is easily refuted by anyone willing to put the effort into actually checking her facts.

BTW, if you consider Ms. Dachel to be a vaccine safety advocate, then, please, direct me to even one instance where she has stated that a vaccine is good and should be administered to kids. You'd have to ask them, but probably because Prof. Walker-Smith is retired and it really wouldn't be worth the cost to hold a new hearing.

Also I think the use of the word "minister" within such close proximity to "scientific fact" undercuts your argument. One does not need to proselytize facts. Nor do you articulate what exactly is wrong with a scientific elite and instead use it as a pejorative.

I for one would like more of that particular class in existence. Also I suspect Orac is not confusing vaccine damage and infectious disease, but if anything pointing out that even if the evidence pointed to vaccines causing some of the claimed problems, which they clearly do not, it would still be preferable to lets say death.

This is one of the unfortunate cases where Othniel Charles Marsh, in a rush to beat rival Edward Drinker Cope in describing new species, named too many dinosaurs during the Bone Wars. He named Apatosaurus ajax in He named another, more complete sauropod Brontosaurus excelsus in ' In , Elmer Riggs realized that Apatosaurus and "Brontosaurus" were similar enough that they should be placed in the same genus.

Since Apatosaurus was named first, it get priority. Whether the species A. But everybody needs to stop saying "Brontosaurus. Prior to becoming a psychologist, yours truly studied economics at another elitist enclave, naturally. To supplement what I posted earlier - women are also bearing children at a more advanced age now into their 40's which has already shown to lead to an increased risk for Downs and other developmental issues.

Why couldn't autism also fit into this as well - since this is occuring mostly in Western Countries where you also see the increased recognition of autism , this fits - and if you can show correlation between age of the mother vs. I believe I've presented two very likely scenarios to explain the current increased recognition of autism - that was nothing to do with vaccines - and I continue to wonder, really, why these anti-vaxers are so stuck on the subject.

Science Mom: Lisa Goes has figured it out She is a "science journalist" at AoA and is also affiliated with the Canary Party:. There's already an established correlation between parental age and autism incidence. See for instance PMIDs , , and And that's just from the first 10 hits. The movement is growing because there is a plentiful supply of people like you who think that the popularity of an idea among uneducated Oprah fans has any bearing upon whether or not the idea is true.

QED, mumsy dearest. And if you don't know what "QED" means, you can look it up in that dictionary you love so much. Or perhaps phone a friend? Perhaps that medical dictionary doesn't really describe "confounding factors" or she skipped that section because it was too difficult. There is a reason us "elitists" go to school rather than make all of our professional decisions on a dictionary or on random web sites.

Me, too. That chorus has been severely reduced in recent years, which is a great relief to all but a minority of parents of autistic children. Until you have an autistic child, you will have no idea of how infuriating it is to have someone lying about your child, his condition and his prognosis I did see the hatemongering term "tsunami of autism" the other day - from one of the remainder of what I call the "sewage leak of antivaxxers".

If you could take the hateful emotion out of your presentation, you could move mountains. Come on!!! I mean He is a complete jackleg. An asshat. A moron. Ah, the ever-popular argumentum ad populum! If an idea is popular, it must be correct - right? Or why bleeding and purging worked so well in the 18th and 19th centuries. Please, get over the idea of "the wisdom of the masses".

Only if you don't understand science very well. The anti-vaccinationistas are generally very good at emoting and appearing sincere, not to mention the use of "sciency" terminology much of which is utter nonsense , but actual science? Not so much of that. Here's the argument in a nutshell: the "vaccines-cause-autism" advocates claim that vaccines cause autism despite the fact that no studies have shown a correlation between the two.

That's what negates their argument. This brings us to the issue of vaccine-preventable diseases: since we know what the risks of those are and we also know what the risks of the vaccines are, we can compare the two. When we do that, in something referred to as a "risk-benefit analysis", we see that the benefits of vaccination vastly outweigh the risks of vaccination. If Ms. Daschel's writings are "well researched", why are they so often usually?

Reconcile those two facts, if you can, LJ Goes. Tone trolling - if you don't have any data to support your assertions, try to shut off discussion by complaining about the "tone". Argumentum ad populum again - what "the people" like is not necessarily data, fact or "the truth". In fact, most people prefer a blatant lie they agree with over plain truth that they don't. Having the data on our side is one of the things that help us to feel that we are "right" and gives us the courage to persevere in the face of popular ignorance.

No need to be sorry for us - we knew the job was dangerous when we took it. That noise you heard was the sound of thousands of irony meters all over the world exploding simultaneously from a massive overload. A medical dictionary and a telephone Or is this simply a massive display of naked arrogance?

Tone trolling - again! However, I doubt that LJ Goes would be "moved" by the actual science even if it was presented without "hateful emotion". Call it a hunch. Also note that we only have her word that it is a medical dictionary. I am starting to wonder if it might actually be the Aardvark-to-Zebra kind. Stuff used to make you feel better.

Any nonsense fabricated by idiots by extrapolating from the first definition. If I were writing a scientific paper, I would use Apatosaurus, but brontosaurus is a perfectly good English word. I hope, if someone refers to their dog, that you don't feel the need to jump in and insist that they should be writing "My Canis lupus had to go to the vet last week. She is three. After researching the pros and cons the best I could, I decided not to vaccinate her. I hope that can happen here.

My only concern is the health of my daughter and I want to do what is best for her. I just wish there was a clear answer. Re: "Vaccines are safe. The adjuvant used in the vaccine was aluminum hydroxide, which is increasingly being identified as a contributing cause of autoimmune disease and other health problems in immunized populations. The discovery that the hepatitis B vaccine damages the liver hepatotoxicity confirms earlier findings that the vaccine increases the incidence of liver problems in U.

Blood-letting, mercury and aluminium hydroxide as medicine both past and present-day medical practice - now that's pseudoscience. There is a clear answer on vaccines Stick around here and read. Your research to-date has likely included bogus information. With so much information out there, it's easy to be confused. Science reigns here. I'm not a scientist either. I have 3 children, all fully vaccinated. My anecdote on vaccines vs. In , he was too little yet to get the chicken pox vaccine. It was new back then and there were lots of unvaccinated kids, one of whom got the pox and brought it to my son's daycare.

My oldest daughter was also at the same daycare. She had her chicken pox vaccine. My son caught the pox at six months and suffered terribly for a couple of weeks. You wouldn't think a 6-month-old would have the dexterity to scratch, but he did! He fully recovered, but the marks took several months to finally fade. His sister did not get sick because she was vaccinated. I would never want to see a child that sick and chicken pox is considered a "mild" disease.

Imagine if it had been measles or whooping cough. Katie - as the father of two young boys, both my wife and I had them fully vaccinated. There is a lot of scare-mongering information out there, trying to make vaccines look less safe than they actually are.

Your doctor is your ally and you should have the type of relationship with them where they will provide honest answers to your questions. Katie, In many cases there is a clear answer. The chance of having a harmful reaction to, say, the measles vaccine is significantly lower than the chance of a harmful reaction should she get the disease.

You may argue and some have that the chances of getting measles in a Western industrialized country are fairly small and they are certainly much lower than they were before mass immunization. However, as you may have heard there have been pockets of measles infections, primarily where people have decided that the risks of contracting measles are so small that they don't need to immunize.

So yes, you can in many cases choose not to immunize and most likely won't have any problems. This is because the population around you has taken on the risks inherent in immunization for the sake of your daughter. As long as your daughter remains in the minority as one of the unimmunized, her odds of catching one of these diseases is low.

This assumes, of course, that you never travel outside the country and that nobody from outside the country ever travels to your area. Of course, it is likely there are diseases that are endemic to your area which you might want to immunize her against. I personally wouldn't bother vaccinating your daughter against smallpox. The effects of polio can be so devastating that I would recommend the immunization, though the disease is on the wane worldwide.

Exposure to rubella may not harm your daughter, but it may harm your next child. There have been well publicized outbreaks of pertussis, measles, and various other illnesses to say that the odds of catching the disease is non-trivial. You can't control whether she's exposed; you can only control whether she's protected.

The website has some excellent information that is "user friendly" and great links to other sites:. Katie: welcome. There is a lot of information on the internet. Some good, a lot bad. For honest, factual information, there are a lot of places to go. If you aren't medically trained, some of the information may be too "medicalese" for you, just like for me, "statisticese" is a foreign language math and statistics are NOT my forte DEATHS Mortality from childhood diseases were mostly decreasing before mass immunization programs thanks to better medical care - antibiotics, modern sanitation, water treatment, dietary improvements.

Morbidity or, bad outcomes from getting the disease - such as deafness after having mumps, or sterility mostly did not start to decrease until the numbers of infections started to decrease due to immunization. Vaccines DO have some risks. No one here denies that. Currently, the risk of an adverse outcome from a vaccine, almost ANY vaccine, is less than the risk of a adverse outcome from getting the disease.

I'm 50, and have a small pox scar because small pox was still around when I was a child. My 5 years younger sister didn't get the small pox vaccine. My children haven't needed it. Small pox, like many other childhood diseases, only has a human carrier. Get rid of the disease by enough vaccinations, you can then get rid of the vaccine. We were almost there with polio and measles Many, many studies have looked at children. Vaccines do not make them less healthy, cause autism, ADD, diabetes, etc.

While we don't know what causes many of these things, we have been able to again, mostly - science never says "never causes" eliminate vaccines as a cause. An anecdote: my daughter caught chicken pox at age 5. She was covered from head to toe, with pox in her mouth, throat, vagina.

She refused to eat, drink, sit, lie down - she was miserable. I had to give her narcotics for the pain she was in; nothing else touched the agony. I would have gladly had her suffer for a few minutes of a vaccine injection over 3 days of agony more days of pain, but only 3 days we had to give her narcotics for pain.

Your daughter is vulnerable. At 3, she plays outside. She is not protected against tetanus if she happens to suffer an injury that allows tetanus to grow. The treatment is FAR worse, pain wise, risk wise, and with a much higher incidence of death, than getting her vaccinated. Please, talk to your doctor. If there are reasons NOT to vaccinate, the doctor will say so. If there are no reasons, get your child protected. Both of my kids are fully vaccinated, and I try to stay current with adult vaccinations like influenza, tetanus, and pertussis.

I don't want my kids to suffer the way I did with chickenpox, or the way my mother did with measles she had long-term effects. And I would die of shame if I, or anyone for whom I was responsible, ever spread pertussis to an infant. If you have a son, take a moment to look up "mumps orchitis.

There is also a "catch-up" schedule for children who are "missing" one or more vaccines It was used again in to vaccinate select emergency responders, due to increased risk of biological terrorism attacks. I "think" that military personnel are still required to be vaccinated.

Another excellent website is www. Also, I suggest you read a bit more about those diseases as there is a reason vaccines were created so kids can avoid them. Some of the major causes of neurological damage to children from deafness, blindness to severe neurological damage are measles and Hib, and plus to a lesser extent: mumps.

If a child passes rubella to a pregnant woman, that baby has a good chance of being born disabled or not living long enough to be born. Chicken pox does not have as high a chance of causing permanent harm, though it can cause death and disability. But it is cruel to have a child suffer two weeks with open itchy wounds all over their body. Of course, that is a common thing among all of those diseases: they make a child miserable for quite a while.

Pertussis is often called the day cough. Who wants to see a child coughing for three months? Especially since the coughing can be so bad it has caused broken ribs in some people. Measles causes high fevers, and eyes become so sensitive that the room needs to be darkened.

I remember mumps as being very painful, and I was so swollen I could barely open my mouth to take in fluids, much less soup. Weigh the effects of getting a vaccine versus a child suffering through a diseases. And remember there is no such thing as herd immunity for tetanus. If your daughter is three years old she is now at a greater risk of actually catching pertussis, measles and mumps for school and playmates. One major reason is due to the efforts of Anne Dachel and friends who are happy that herd immunity is going away.

Thank you for the link to the article. Having read it, I can say I don't see Ms. Dachel's concerns as quite the earth shattering example of evil ignorance as you depict them. You have a battle of competing authorities in which science, and medical science in particular, seems to be doing an exceptionally poor job of winning. Scientists themselves have created an integrity problem. Nor do arguments like 'herd immunity'. I had my children vaccinated to protect them, not the herd. I would guess most parents did the same.

As for government funding, though you may, I would expect that you would not want to defend the Bush administration's record on science for the public good. If I had been undecided on whether to choose or reject vaccinating, I surely wouldn't have been convinced by someone willing to go the the mat extolling the virtues of, and the fine science behind big pharma.

Frankly, you come off as purely arrogant without the saving benefit of ignorance. Well, of course not. I wasn't really criticing Orac so much as pointing out to everybody that there is no such thing as "Brontosaurus. It's like when people call dromaeosaurs like Velociraptor and Deinonychus "raptors. I am a creative director, also "smart", but I was once totally in thrall to all things alt-med and that included some very destructive, full-blown conspiracy theories.

I was one of the "worried well. You may be like I was; smart, professional and totally crap when it came to critical thinking, letting my fears get the best of me, being "right" and confirmation bias. Now there's a lot of talk about tone, "hatefulness" and what have you and yes, we tend to come off like know-it-alls. But Katie, many regular commenters here have some formidable scientific education under their belts, not to mention our prolific host who is a cancer researcher, surgeon and is very critical of medicine and pharmaceutical companies when they veer from ethical behavior.

This particular article talking about COIs is particularly instructive in critical thinking. Just because someone is "tainted" doesn't automatically make them wrong, and I think you'll find nary a post that attacks people based on personality and tone without there being a solid, scientific basis for the criticism. The snark is just frosting. So this disembodied strangers advice? Step away from the fear, and use critical thinking and research before someone you love gets hurt.

What a smug ignorant troll you are. I am not interested in your politics and I am not interested in your mis understanding of immunology and herd immunity. How were your children protected from measles before the age of one year?

How were they protected from pertussis prior to completing the full four vaccine DTaP series? I would love to hear an explanation that does not involve herd immunity from your family or your community. Why is it purely arrogant to produce evidence, and to expect evidence for claims that are being made?

Who are the "competing authorities"? On one hand, you have actual scientists and on the other, self-proclaimed experts and sleazy, unethical "investigators" pandering to a vulnerable audience. You've created quite a red herring here. We've known for decades that tobacco is a health hazard due to robust science on the matter, BP was pure corporate greed and not a scientific issue as well as your "Big Coal". You, along with the "people trying to decide" are being swayed by emotional, fact-free arguments from non-authorities due to the lack of understanding of how to evaluate medical issues.

I think that public health officials should do a better job of education but the ultimate failure is the arrogance of ignorance that you and your kind display. You imply that Bush himself oversaw NIH funding of research projects. That's not how it works you know.

Pure tone-trolling. This reads to me, "kiss my ass or I won't listen to you". The ignorance is all yours with gems like, "extolling the virtues of, and the fine science behind big pharma. The following are two classic examples of people who never had the opportunity to study Human Immunology Why do you lie all the time about human immunology, Th1Th2?

You've lied and lied and lied on almost every thread. I wasn't vaccinated against anything except smallpox, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and I think typhus. I'm old! The diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis vaccine was licensed in the mids, so I got that, and my grandmother insisted on the typhus vaccine because we were boating and swimming on a river.

The measles vaccine was introduced in ; the mumps vaccine in ; and the rubella vaccine in I think I had had all three by at the latest. I distinctly remember having the mumps, because I couldn't swallow even my own spit for at least a day. My children were all fully vaccinated my daughter even had the HPV vaccine and my grandchildren are all fully vaccinated.

They are all fine and thriving. Because you are hesitant, I'm thinking you might have been visiting websites like the National Vaccine Information Center, SaneVax, and so on. You need to know that the sites that go on and on about the dangers of vaccines routinely distort and exaggerate the dangers of vaccines and their ingredients. That's all they do: spread fear, uncertainty and doubt FUD about vaccines. It's not balanced information and it's not reliable. If you have been reading Bob Sears' "Vaccine Book" consider these things: he has no special expertise in the science of vaccines vaccinology or in infection disease.

He does, however, have a considerable financial interest in spreading FUD re vaccines. It sells his book; it earns him speaking fees, and of course, vaccine-fearing parents flock to his medical practice. They have both print and video resources on vaccine safety and specific vaccines. Do come back and ask specific questions, about specific vaccines and vaccine ingredients, if you have them.

There are a bunch of pediatricians, family practice docs, and other experts who read this blog. They can answer your questions. I continue to be impressed by the amount of, dare I say, arrogance displayed by so many in the anti-vaccine camp.

They claim that some googling and reading of conspiracy theory sites, some linking of people to other people by 6 degrees of separation or more, a dictionary and a telephone, or even studying fire science somehow makes them experts in the subjects of epidemiology, immunology, or even basic biology. I am called a meanie because I ask for real documentation for their claims, and I point out that vaccine inserts, news stories and random websites do not count.

This was the laugh riot comment I got after explaining that vaccine inserts were not real evidence:. Well, "Chris" is a name that could go both ways. Think "fiance" and "fiancee". I remember the early days of being on here, when "Sid" used to refer to me as a woman. I guess it's better than "Augustine" calling me a racial slur for which he still hasn't apologized, I've noticed. People who use the internet to frighten others about vaccines are motivated by their beliefs rather than by science: 1.

Other advocates who imagine vaccines as the cause of autism and other ills are frequently distraught parents of autistic children who have difficult lives as round-the-clock caregivers of disabled children. Years ago, severely disabled kids were usually in institutions- also they might have been labelled as 'mentally retarded' rather than autistic- the label change came in , so the "epidemic" may really be a name-change.

These parents may attribute the cause of autism to external causes like vaccines rather than genetics as a coping mechanism- believing this helps them to feel better. Alt med 1. I was not alarmed by the studies that led many to fear vaccines because I had studied developmental neuro- physiology: I told my cousin who had a newborn child not to fear vaccines in I follow alt med websites since I can believe that this is true; you don't seem to understand very well why ad hominem argumentation, such as Ms.

Dachel resorts to immediately, is fallacious argumentation. I don't think you have the insight into the mind of "people" that you think you do. People who never learned critical thinking skills and can't spot this as an excellent example of why ad hominem argumentation leads to false conclusions, perhaps. As regular articles on this blog have reminded us, there are people who, when they read about a child who is endangered by a disease such as leukemia or AIDS will donate generously to try and secure that child's healthy future.

If parents can't be motivated to do something that's good for their own children in order to try and secure healthy futures for multiple vulnerable children out there, I think it's because they do not understand the issues, not because they're as selfish as you depict. Guilt by association?

That's what you're resorting to, really? I am no fan of either Bush Sr. It's a wonder you ever managed to make the right decision of vaccinating, when you clearly can't think your way through the issues involved. If advocating vaccines is what you mean by "extolling the virtues of, and the fine science behind big pharma," and it's hard to figure what else that's relevant to the conversation you could mean, then your logic is wholly circular, claiming that to advocate for vaccines with credibility you have to not advocate for vaccines.

Then I suppose you will be pleased with yourself to know that you come across as being more than adequately supplied in both respects, and not just the one. Not bad. In my experience, there is a lot of misinformation out there.

The good information is not convincing though. I am interested in knowing what is the chance my daughter will contract a disease and if she does what are the chances the symptoms will be mild, moderate, severe or fatal. Ideally taking into account as many variables as possible, inluding medical history, social and environmental factors including herd immunity and outbreaks.

Then I would like to know the chances of a negative side effect including severity levels. It would be wonderful if there was a computer to do the analysis say every hour giving new results based on changing variables. Chris: This is why I have the Thing in my killfile. That comment made no sense whatsoever, and I got tired of reading the droolings. Katie: I think we would ALL love that. But, this is the real world, and, as parents, we have to make the best decisions we can to protect our children.

No one can predict how bad symptoms will be. My younger daughter had a very light case of chicken pox while her older sister, as noted in my comment above, had a horrible case. At the same time, one of their classmates ended up hospitalized with an infection from the pox and nearly died.

All middle class, healthy children, with no risk factors. Going back further, when mumps went around, my brother had a mild case, I didn't catch them, and our friend who we played with all the time again, all healthy middle class children was so ill she was out of school for 2 weeks because she couldn't eat or drink.

I'm very glad my kids didn't have to deal with the multiple lost school days as all the illnesses went around, or the misery of being that ill. When I was a child, I can recall chicken pox going around, and having only 5 of my classmates IN school because everyone else was out sick until I got it - chicken pox goes in waves - so I was out while others trickled back. But I had, like most kids those days, a stay-at-home mom, so while having one of us sick for a week x 3 as the pox spread through the house - each of us was out a week was not great, it wasn't too inconvenient.

These days, with both parents working, having to be off work for 3 weeks with sick children is too great a financial burden. And recall - quarantine for most childhood illnesses needs to be done, so if your child is exposed to, say, chicken pox, you have 21 days before you know if she will get it or not.

Can you delay a vacation for those 21 days? You can't, in all good conscience, take your child out where she might expose immunologically depressed children to chicken pox. So, you have to stay at home with her until she either gets it or the 21 days pass. Can you afford to do that? Many parents can't and many don't bother - leading to more exposure. Again, I write a long response, nice and polite, and it goes into moderation.

I really think Sciblogs hates me One cannot predict the outcome for one person, because there are too many variables. It is too complicated for any computer and I have done some crazy analyses on computers, they are only as good as the humans who program and collect the data. All you can do is to look at historical data to see how populations have been affected. There are also several studies available at PubMed on the historical effect of diseases, both before the vaccines and when vaccination declined use words like "measles" and "history" and then on the right side of the page choose "free articles".

Though if you really want a definitive answer you are going to have to invent a device that predicts the future, a crystal ball that actually works. Or just make sure your daughter never leaves the house and does not go out into the community. And neither of those options are realistic. One realistic thing is to check your county's health department, which may or may not have notices on reportable diseases.

My county has a monthly Epi-Log which lists how many reports have been posted for certain diseases. It also includes articles, the latest is about the surge of pertussis. I am sorry, but it is just a matter of probability and statistics, much like a game of dice. You take a gamble every time you get into a moving vehicle that it will not get into an accident.

You can reduce the risk by obeying traffic laws and being in a vehicle with good safety equipment. You take the same gamble with infectious diseases. Every time you take a breath, eat some food, touch a surface or drink some water you are taking in microbes.

Most of them are benign, but sometimes they are not. You can reduce your risk by training your immune system with a vaccine, all of them are safer than the diseases. It is up to you how you gamble with your daughter's health. That quote was from another blog, ShotOfPrevention, where there are a whole other type of troll like behavior. That particular "gentleman" once declared there were no vaccines for bacterial diseases.

No they haven't. They've been forced to by your preciouse government. Wake up and smell the reality. You must not understand that there are people who have more than one child. Perhaps in your fantasy land the five year old sibling can get himself to kindergarten, music class and soccer game. Or that no child leaves the house until the youngest is at least a year old, and all groceries are provided by a magic fairy. Or that some women with children need to go to work to pay the bills.

Like my sister when her loser husband left her because he did not like doing the "dad thing. My daughter also had chicken pox when she was six months old from her older brother. I was not working, due to the medical issues of my oldest son some due to getting a now vaccine preventable disease. Amazing a feeding frenzy to get this person to vax her kid.

It's like someone tossed chum into shark infested waters. You guys are truly sick. DEATHS Mortality from childhood diseases were mostly decreasing before mass immunization programs thanks to better medical care. Your child's chance of catching a mild illness are tiny. That's four per state. Besides why would anyone think sites named "immunize" would offer unbiased info.

And gov sites? Even sillier. They are in the vaccination business. Everyone truly informed knows that autism, diabetes, seizure disorders, life-threatening allergies and asthma are the result of chemtrails and nano particles. Not vaccines. Insiders also know that anti-vax groups are dupes to the evil masterminds who are using nano particles and chemtrails to get their way.

You can't base your decision on what others do. Daycare at a young age simply alters the risk reward ratio. There's no reason for parents to expect the same risk when they have infants at home. The risk of infection there is simply lower.

Others who place their infants in a daycare situation have higher risks than those who do not. As such the vaccination equation differs. Oh, really? How much money does the government make from vaccines, Bob? Give us something you haven't and show us some facts.

Please, enlighten us to the hoards of cash raked in by the big bad voodoo government officials who want to give kids autism, as you think. And don't say you don't think that. Your association with Generation Rescue and AoA speaks very loudly of your fears. Ren, the gov is made up of people. Are there not people working in the "vaccinate your baby" biz? The CDC is now even giving advice on how to throw a Superbowl party. Talk about mission creep.

The people who work that "biz", as you call it, are public health professionals who care about eradicating diseases and keeping people safe. Trust me, they're not in it for the money. Any nurse working public health could make three to four times the money benefits included if they worked at a doctor's office or hospital.

So you are advising against taking to your pediatrician about vaccines because they are ill-informed about the subject and you suggest they seek out vaccinologist? Some people enjoy feeling important and telling others what to do even more than making money - especially when they don't know how to make money. I've seen you use the following argument several times on this blogs other posts if you need I'll dig them up :.

Do you know why a serious outbreak is only a small number of cases? It isn't because measles is not infectious, but that much of the population is immune. This limits spread of measles. What exactly do you think will happen if everyone follows your advice and stops getting their children vaccinated? The number of measles cases will likely go as immunity goes down. This has all been explained to you before. When you make this sort of argument you forget that the number of cases is not fixed, but will vary as some function of the percentage of the population.

Your child might not get sick, but what about your childs' child or if your child once older gets measles later in life because there is not longer enough people with immunity? I know it is a gamble. I'm trying to get information on the odds so I can make the best bet I can. My state department of public health does list reports of some diseases by county.

There has been one reported case of measels, a handfull of pertussis, not in my county. What is the best way I can use this data to calculate the odds? Have you ever heard of a revolving door between government agency and corporations? Why don't you watch this 60 minutes expose called "Under the Influence" and then get back to the lurkers and rationalize your position.

You're a good government pawn, Ren. They taught you what and how to think very well. You have absorbed the philosphy well. Kudos to you. Too bad you can't see it. In economics, regulatory capture occurs when a state regulatory agency created to act in the public interest instead advances the commercial or special interests that dominate the industry or sector it is charged with regulating. Regulatory capture is a form of government failure, as it can act as an encouragement for large firms to produce negative externalities.

The agencies are called "captured agencies". Don't you see that they must capture the government, in order not to be restrained too much by it? Must capture the government? They have already captured it. Yes, I understand the technical definition of epidemic. But I don't understand your side's fascination with the whole "what if everyone did" argument. I chose not to vaccinate in and amazingly the entire country did NOT follow my lead.

If the measles comes back people will be about as worried about it as they were in the sixties. Should sporadic cases reemerge, they will have the option to vaccinate as they see fit. I can't tell you exactly the best method of how to calculate the odds off the top of my head. It is complicated. Populations change. Will your child ever leave your county?

Will she travel abroad? What will the immunity status of the population be in N years in the future? That is to say, very worried, particularly if they had young children. Some of us old farts remember the sixties, you lying piece of filth to the third power.

For the US, the CDC pink book usually has very good stats on the risks of various consequences for disease based on contemporary data in developed countries and the risks of adverse effects from vaccination.

If you don't live in the US your public health agency is a suitable substitute. So is the World Health Organization. Start with what large aggregates of immunologists and pediatricians have to say, and work from there. As far as a lot of anti-vaccine claims go, what I suspect you will find is that the vast majority of them do not stand up to even the slightest scrutiny, either in terms of their evidence or their logic.

Go to your local community college and take a basic course in statistics. Then, if that is not enough, enroll in your local university to get a Masters in Public Health or other degree in epidemiology. No, actually it is quite complicated and there are no simple answers.

The best thing for you to do is go to your local library and check out books on the history of infection. I chose not to vaccinate in and amazingly the entire country did NOT follow my lead Not if you have your way, Bob. Not if they believe the things you write on your blog, on AoA, and on Generation Rescue. For someone who claims to want people to make their own decisions, your postings make it seem to me like you want them to make uninformed decisions.

Those decisions are not free decisions. What's bad for public health is good for you, remember? With that line of thinking, that agenda of yours, how can you honestly write that you want people to make an informed decision? You should also read "History of the black man" by Whitey.

All facts inclusive. No spin. Are you saying you are not trying to convince Katie that it is not worth the risk to get vaccinated? I think your statement is something that could keep a person from getting their children vaccinated not saying Katie will, I'm not a mind reader.

If you are not trying to convince anyone, maybe you should provide a disclaimer "This statement is true for current vaccination rates. Changed in the rate of vaccination may increase your risk of measles". BTW: I never said the entire country followed your lead, but some have and are trying to convince others to follow suit.

We already have sporatic cases, what is the critical number of cases? Unless a disease is totally eraticated isn't this going to lead to waning and waxing immunization rates forever? So not only the risk of getting immunized which is small but the risk of getting the disease before the outbreak is under control. I get the feeling you don't like IF questions, but they are important to tell one what might occur in the future.

Poor Shay decided to go off of emotional memory instead evidence and reading this 's CDC memo:. Susceptibility to the disease after the waning of maternal immunity is universal; immunity following recovery is solid and lifelong in duration. Shay, could you tell the "science" bloggers how many people recovered from measles in the 's? How many died and what were the comorbidities?

Was the risk homogenous? Shay: And, some of us remember the fifties, before the Salk polio vaccine became available. Kids were very frightened about contracting the disease and ending up paralyzed or in an iron lung. My close childhood chum died from polio. Hell, one of my earliest recollections was when I was 4 years old and was taken to the local firehouse for smallpox vaccine:. My mom, who was in nurses training circa remembered diphtheria outbreaks during her childhood, and caring for patients.

Just because Offal wasn't alive during the bad old days and just because he is clueless about the spread of diseases and epidemics, he can "confidently" state that " he chose not to vaccinate in ". Just another selfish free-rider. I actually have considered studying epidemiology to try to answer this question. Just to clarify, I've read about the diseases a fair amount.

I'm definitely clear that the chance of adverse effects from having the disease are much greater than the chance of adverse effects from the vaccine. I'd like to take the data available on the severity of the disease and the data available on the rate is this the right term? It doesn't seem like this would be impossible. So far only Sid Offit has offered anything. I'm hoping a scientist here can help me out.

Or maybe offer advice on who would be the best person to help me with this. Become an epidemiologist. If you think "Sid Offit" the troll known as Robert Schecter, and not the author of the same name offered anything useful, then you really need to work on your education. Because around here he is basically considered to be an idiot. We've honestly offered up how severe the diseases are. Did you miss the bit about the day cough, or the swelling, or the sensitivity to light with the real chance of permanent disability and death?

Seriously, what are you reading? Fairy tales? Yes, Robert Schecter, you are an idiot. Stop pretending to be a well renowned author who writes biographies. You are not fooling anyone with your constant stupidity. Katie: It is hard to teach statistics over the internet, but here is a primer for you that discusses incidence, prevalence rate , morbidity and mortality:.

I suggest that you check out the CDC Pink Book which will give you chapter-by-chapter information about every vaccine-preventable disease including all the Recommended Childhood Vaccines , on that vaccine schedule I linked you to. I'm puzzled by this statement. Katie, I have a comment in moderation. I suggest you read it when it gets approved sometime tomorrow. In the mean time I suggest you realize that "Sid Offit" is not the an author of several well regarded biographies, but Robert Schecter, a guy who sells real estate in California.

On this blog he is considered to be an uneducated idiot. In short, ignore everything he writes. It is clear from the scientific literature that diptheria mortality decreased from from matters not related the DPT. Apparently your "scientific" education in didn't get much further than you mother's 's "scientific" education.

Risk is not homogenous. Your emotional catharsis on mass vaccination does not contribute to the science. Gee, I'd like some feedback from Katie to determine if she has learned anything from what we have offered. Ad hominem attacks are considered logical fallacies. They are par for the course for ORAC and his blog followers that he affectionately calls minions. It's pseudoscientific and psuedoskeptic of them. It's a hallmark signature of the cult. Chris has given a classic example.

Instead of dealing with content, it's "don't believe "x" because of "this". First and foremost, your child is your daughter. You surely must be considering vaccination against rubella. For the sake of a couple of injections you're risking her and yourself having a disabled child should she come into contact at just the wrong time with someone not yet showing symptoms of a disease that's probably trivial for them but devastating for her and the rest of the family.

Some people describe chickenpox as a 'minor' childhood illness, though many here have disputed that. But noone disputes that it's much more serious for adults. And I know it. I had the 'minor' childhood illness. My husband caught it from our children when he was in his forties. He was in agony for days, and delirious with fever for about 30 hours.

His beautiful pale Irish heritage skin has been forever marred by the scars. And she's three years old. Kindergarten, school, birthday parties are all possible contacts. The children she deals with only have to have had passing contact with someone else you've never seen to contract a mild case of a disease - if they happen to be one of those for whom vaccination was only partially successful.

Thank you for hours upon hours of entertainment. Thank you for Dreadlocked! Thank you for a look into the life of Lee Jordan, Tour Guide. I propably would have gone crazy if you took as long as most writers need Including, bless her, JKR herself! I've thouroughly enjoyed your characterisation of Lee, as well as the humour you mixed into the story.

This is a wonderful and unique piece. I hope you keep writing after HBP. Thanks so much for entertaining while we wait for book six! This just keeps getting better and better! I loved learning more about Lee and his family and his Holly. Okay, and a bit frightend, now. You aren't a legilimens, aren't you? You know, there's a tattoo on my shoulder. A tattoo of a tarantula. However, wonderful chapters as always.

I love how you through in little details and then repeat them: the hangover potion and the "I'm not a teacher" bit, lately. It's what makes the story as round and logical in itself, as a good story is supposed to be. Gladly, I've two more chapters to read yet. Margarets - your friendly author of this story Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 27 Siorsa -Thanks for your review! I'm glad the story come together for you - and I agree it was rushed since I wrote the last three chapters in a week. I totally ran out of time and I had to cut and condense and distill what I had originally planned.

Hee - outline. NO - I just write toward scenes I have in mind. From the get go, I had the Underground rescue in mind - and the map - and the proposal - and the wedding dance. But lots of things were surprises like Eppie and Stacy. What is it with Lee and older Scotish women? Mirlda - there just aren't any Lee Jordan stories to read! I thought I'd rememdy that! I'm just glad you were interested in this one. Thanks for reading.

Michael G - Thanks for reading! It was great! I'm so sorry it's over. Holly became so real I almost forgot she wasn't canon. And I love how you incoporated your last story with Ginny into this story. Great job! Keep writing! Rare indeed. And a rare specimen of story, too. Exceptionally good. But you know, how hard can it possibly be to weave "Marry A Weasley" into the story?

And I rather like the various interactions with the Trio Plus. But where's Neville? And Seamus? And Dean? Good stuff. I can't believe just how beautifully this all went together - let me guess, you use out-lines?? The end did feel a tad rushed with the action in London and all, but was still brilliant! I absolutely loved this "day in the life" sort-of story. And how you worked-in all the details scattered through-out - pure magic!!

Thanks for sharing! Fred shifted uncomfortably and didn't say anything. Holly and I aren't running a business on one of the most expensive streets in London. We don't need a lot of money to live the way we want to. I could have boiled that chicken and you would have been just as happy. Yes, this is the ManTact School of Etiquette. You've been selected as the recipient of a six month scholarship That was so lovely!

I loved- well- I loved it all. I'm so going to miss reading this. And, of course, that HBP inspires you to write even more wonderful stories. I'm so glad that Lee Jordan got a chance to prove himself - he's always been one of my favourite smaller characters, but I've never dared write him. This story is well-written and well-paced, and suitably fluffy, and Holly Kirke is a lovely character she is original, isn't she?

So: well done! I'm sorry it's over! Reviewer : Seaspray Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 26 And now the title tour guide takes on a whole new meaning I liked the interaction with Lee and Harry down in the Underground and the way Ginny went straight after Harry before anyone noticed- I wonder what exactly happened with those two?

Dad was just doing his job. Chimney sweeps and binmen just did their jobs everyday, and finally, someone noticed. He's really good at it. I loved his inspired by Lockhart quiz, and his round about way of making the fact interesting. And catching up on Ginny was fun too- I hope she and Harry won't have a need to call on Lee this year.

Then he laughed out loud. This had to be the best revenge of all. Yes, it had finally sunk in. Way to go Lee! Fraser cried, bouncing on her chair in excitement. She whipped a small notebook out of her bag and flipped a few pages. Fraser had been betting on the identity of his True Love? I adore Eppie. The image of she and McGonagall painting Diagon Alley red had me is stitches.

And the conversation with Fred and George was hilarious. I think my favourite part of this was the description of Holly's painting through- that was just beautiful. June the twentieth is the full moon, so that day is out if you want Jill to be your flower girl. And Fred and George would have to close the shop if we had it on a Saturday, so Mrs. Fraser thought that Tuesday, June the tenth would be the most auspicious day since six plus one is seven and that is the holiday honoring St.

Margaret, Queen of Scotland. Oh, St. You will never cease to amaze me with all this wholesome fluff! Thanks so much for gracing us with it! They were marching like soldiers. The Ministry has Heliopaths. No protective charms worked against the flames. I almost cried when I thought that his dad died Of course you couldn't kill Harry and Ginny! I thought for a minute that you did, and then I was like, 'Um, no One more chapter left? That's so sad!

I'm so glad you incorporated 'Magic Within, Magic Without' in this one! It ties it all together! I love it! So fluffy and enjoyable! I was laughing almost the entire time during the engagement! Katie Reviewer : Ardie Bea Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 23 That was sweet and satisfying - this coming from a bloke who likes two and a half sugars in strong coffee!

Somewhat relieved to see in this chapter that it aint necessarily so, but it does stretch credulity more than a little! That was a cool proposal. Well writ. Very believable, and in character. A lovely first result from their first collaboration. The Jordon history was interesting, but even better was the way you turned it into Lee's reflections on himself. You continue to evoke the atmosphere of the moor beautifully, especially through Holly's artist's eye.

Good well-stitched stuff that makes the fluff more interesting, realistic and enjoyable. I have been reading them and I appreciate all of your thoughts. If McGonagall likes him, then he must have something more to him. I figured that someone as outgoing and fun as Lee must have nice parents.

They were a lot of fun to think about. Wish me luck pulling all the threads together! You have quite the Defense skills! Ylime, Thanks so much for reading! I know you are busy writing too. I loved writing them. Love your forum name! I think I copied it wrong!

You have really made my day. So many female readers have commented on that one! And Ron should soooo be Captain! I threw the trust thing in there to change the dynamic from the run of the mill angst-and-storm type story. And how smart are you to guess a proposal was coming! And I so wanted to get back at Umbridge in a fitting way!

I think taking a character away from Hogwarts forced me to do more in depth thinking and therefore, my writing became more descriptive. I love my fluff! Deborah Peters! Fred and George ask the very same question in the next chapter. Jordan and Ms. Kirke," At this point I knew that Lee will ask that question.

I think it tells all about how well you described these characters to your readers. I don't mind confessing that I cried a little. The only question in my mind is--aren't they a little young for marriage? I only say this because I'm the same age as these characters, and Of course, I understand that they've had to mature a little faster in the Wizarding world, so it's still believeable. And a lovely story.

Perfect, perfect, perfect! This story truly ties together the essence of Holly and Lee Hurry up and write the next chapter! Katie Reviewer : Seaspray Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 23 I think this chapter has just about made my day. This is even better than when they got together. They're getting married!

And their book is getting published! The backstory with Jordan's shipping was intruiguing- I wonder if Lee will ever get to meet his grandfather and what he will be like if he does. Reviewer : Sara Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 23 ooooh She's married now. Although even just reading that put a big grin on my face. Thank You! We finally got to hear about "Jordan Shipping". So does Lee's grandfather still own it? Just the cousin helps run it? I'm glad "Jokes for the young and young at heart" is going to get published.

In Sanction's latest chapter, he wrote a bunch of excellent wizarding jokes, I put in a few of them in the favorite quote's thread. That was an unexpected and exciting ending to the chapter. They're just so right for each other--I guess I'm just surprised Lee realized it so soon. Good for him! That was really unexpected, both the Jordan Shipping twist and the proposal. I seem to be reading quite a few proposals today in fact It's a little strange, but I can relate to it. Reviewer : beck Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 22 what an adorable chapter i loved they way you ended it.

And fluff Fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, fluff, and more fluff! Oh, yes Oh my yes! How perfect, though! Margarets, you are the culprit of a VERY thick plot! Katie Reviewer : Gryfny Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 22 I hope we get to know what the thing with the coins are. I can't imagine you introducing a plot point like that and not letting us know I'm happy that Lee enjoys Midnight Quidditch.

I really like the idea behind it Reviewer : Gryfny Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 21 I'm happy Mcgonagall was there, I'm sure he needs all the support he can have. I'm also not at all surprised by the kind of friends she has, Mcgonagall has a little fun streak in her. Even if Mcgonagall berated her for it. I'm glad that Lee's "map" may help Reviewer : Be Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 22 oh, this is beautiful Just extraordinarily beautiful.

Thanks for sharing it with us! Reviewer : sara Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 22 thanks for this awesome story, I've liked every chapter and how the plot develops not only the cutely drawn Lee-and-Holly-part - I hope you won't finish soon! It's amazing how you portrait Lee starting from the information JKR has given.

And btw: I enjoy reading your fic because your style of writing is among the best here on the quill. Everything is starting to fit together. Cant wait to see what happens. I like how you show them both coming through their insecurities and Holly "seducing" Lee- that was such a cute scene! I can't wait to read more of this. Fraser answered. I liked the meassages Lee's mother gave him about change and keeping an open hand- very wise- I hope she and her husband are both alright.

I really enjoyed the Quidditch match too, and professor McGonagall turning up, and betting mad Eppie- lovely chapter! Is it warm in here? Erm, yes. Nicely done. I rather liked the Midnight Quidditch scene. Brothers interacting and all.

Hot blooded young pups However, very cute scenes. You've got the interactions down, it's very hem Weasley knew all about Andrew's reserve status because Ron was the Captain this year. Weasley snorted. Weasley grinned mischievously. I'm planning on using it.

Lee, you shameless flirt. This has been a very interesting and dramatic thread throughout the story. It has added depth to Holly's character. Sad Ending! It's getting interesting now that the stuff that's been simmering for these first chapters is coming to a boil--with toil and trouble and all that.

Marvelous chapter, the contrasts of the Happy Christmas with a tearing farewell. Reviewer : MrFlyingFingers Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 19 "Holly talked him out of applying for the job of impersonating Father Christmas because his voice was too distinctive, and what if he caused a child to lose their belief?

You MEAN? Take that Umbridge. She plopped herself on his lap and giggled. Man, you had me smirking the whole time. Hem hem, yes. How 'bout dem Bums? And nicely done bit with Lee's writing and Holly's reviews.

If you haven't neatly summed up the fanfic author's life, then I don't know what you've done. In all, a nicely done chapter, soup to nuts. Romance was in place and smooth sailing, allowing for development of the subplots. It was also nice to see how Lee and Holly partner together with the fountain design. Very nicely done.

Your portrayal of young love is nice, smiley, feel good stuff. The second dance in the shadows was very Clearly, we've not heard the last of Minos Smith! I liked how you drew George and Percy as brothers, similar in certain respects. I also liked "George grinned and Lee knew that was all he would ever have to say to George about Holly It's the manly way of doing things.

Reviewer : Gryfny Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 20 I wonder what Fred and George were doing down in the underground for the order I'm glad that Lee got the job, but I can't imagine that Lee would agree to stay in an isolated place more than one season. My guess is that he'll give up the job. Is he allowed to leave at any times? Though from what you write, that he has week ends free, does that mean he can leave exmoor, or he can get visitors? I wonder how Lee, will do, without his parents around?

Did their dicision have anything to do with what Fred and George found in the underground that time? Still, at least his parents will be safe. At least I hope so- being in hiding didn't do all that much good for Lily and James. The part about that werewolf girl made me want to cry too- what a terrible thing to happen to a child.

This was a wonderful chapter, although somewhat tinted with sadness- I can't wait to find out how Lee find Exmoor. I feel sorry for Lee's dad though- that's a tough sacrifice to make. I wonder if Lee will join the Order at all? I felt a lot of sympathy for Lee handing his article over to be read- beta readers can be scary sometimes :.

Umbridge forced to spend her days in discussion with Centaurs This last chapter is really sad. Poor Lee. This last scene with Holly and the owl made me cry. I can't wait to see what happens. Such a lovely image of Holly and Lee's relationship. I think having a healer for a GF might be good for George- someone who has health and safety in mind might be good for Weasley's Wizarding Wheezes.

I guess I'll have to see how that relationship turns out. Myron is annoying me exceedingly. I shall have to be vindictive and say I hope that he and Amy are exceedingly miserable together. Reviewer : Gryfny Date : Reviewid : Chapter : 19 Lee's father "appearing" in front of the Wizengamot is a sacrifice, but to me at least it does seem like a very good idea.

Besides for showing that he doesn't have the ear of people in power, it will also make people in power think twice before listning to his accusations. Which is what the Death Eaters would want. I'm glad that Lee probally has the job, but it's such a bad time for Jim to be hospitilised. I like the way you made that announcer Jim's son. And it's nice that the old people in Lee's neighberhood are taking care of Jim.

HeeHee, Umbridge in the Squib office. And the joke about the Centaur, also very funny. It's nice that Lee gave her some idea's to add to the fountain

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