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Unfortunately, we would no longer have the right receptacle to catch them. As a general observation, as more data accumulates over the weeks, the correlation between the computers models and the Vegas line seems to be improving. As a result, there are not as many upset predictions or recommended bets than we have observed in the past few weeks. But, there are a few. Table 1 summarizes the upset predictions for the week. There are five total upset picks on the board this week, all from my computer, three of which the FPI agrees with.
Interestingly, three of the upset involve Big Ten games, suggesting that it might be a wild week in the conference. For reference, my weekly simulation suggests that we will most likely see This total is based on the full schedule, without the inevitable cancellations, some of which have already been announced. That said, the COVID situation in Madison which the computers ignore is clearly impacting the line, and for this reason I would generally stay away from that line entirely.
I feel like my computer is trolling me this year. I tell you, that machine has some serious brass A summary of my detailed picks can be found here. Over the weekend, my simulation suggested that the line for the MSU game was likely to open just over 10 points. My feeling here is that the line and its movement reflects the recent history of this rivalry.
Based on my records, this is the first time since at least and likely much longer that Indiana has come into East Lansing favored. In fact, the tightest line that I see was in when the line opened at MSU In Bloomington, MSU has been an underdog once this century, in , when the Spartans were fresh off a brass-knuckle beating at the hands of the Wolverines that so was so bad that head coach Bobby Williams was fired on the following Monday.
In general, the Spartans have also fared well against the spread when playing Indiana, going ATS since In total, the history definitely favors MSU. But, as mentioned above, the computers are betting against the Green and White this week. My machine projects a final score of Indiana 38 MSU 24 after rounding to the nearest reasonable football totals. As for the rest of the Big Ten, the data suggests that it could be a wild week, as there is only one game on the schedule with a spread over 10 points, and that is Ohio State at Maryland.
The FPI is confident that the Buckeyes will cover, while my computer is sensing some turtle power and picks Maryland to cover. Rutgers -7 hosts Illinois this weekend as a favorite for the first time in Big Ten play since Both computers models like the Scarlet Knights to cover.
In some places, the line opened even, but now seems to be over a field goal in favor of the Hawkeyes. The computers concurs and both like Iowa to cover. West Lafayette will play host to a game that might wind up decided the Big Ten West, as undefeated Northwestern comes to town to battle undefeated Purdue That is a sentence that no one expected to type this year. Either way, the computers both predict that the Wildcats will get the win and perhaps a stranglehold on the division race. That in large part depends, however, on what happens with Wisconsin.
After two weeks of COVID prompted cancellations, no one is sure if this game will actually be played or not. But, if they play after two weeks of partial quarantine, then there is a great chance that they are completely unprepared. This also leaves Michigan in a very weird place. If Wisconsin cancels or somehow plays and wins, Michigan has virtually no shot at finishing at or above 0. Personally, a cancellation is perhaps the most amusing outcome, as the Wolverines would then have to sit in the funk of their two-game losing streak like a toddler with a full diaper in the back seat of a hot car on a long road trip.
I have bad news, Wolverine fans: dad has no plans of stopping the minivan any time soon. The final story line in Big Ten land this week takes place in Lincoln, as the winless Nittany Lions -4 face off against winless Nebraska.
Something has to give. My algorithm, however, has the Huskers winning in upset fashion. Those four teams all project to have between a three and 17 percent chance to finish the season in the top two. After last week, the Big 12 appears to be a true four-team race for the top two spots between Texas 54 percent odds to make the Big 12 Championship Game , Oklahoma State 50 percent , Iowa State 40 percent and Oklahoma 39 percent.
All four of those teams have a bye this week but the two remaining games, Baylor at Texas Tech -2 and TCU at West Virginia -1 both have tight spreads, so at least that should be interesting. Try out some of these excellent games for word nerds at your next party.
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But there are countless other moves you make, many which you would never think to call gambling, but are just that But in the real world, games of chance can be expensive We all know this as past visits to the races or gambling casinos are still in our memory. This does not have to be so! Losing for some people has become so routine. This is sad. Many of these same people would not continue any other form of recreation if they were to never succeed.
How many people would play baseball if they never got a h I t. But gambling holds such a special fever because of the anticipation of success, which for many is even better than the actual win! For years the possibility of winning at games which have what the mathematical wizards call "negative expectation", was thought to be impossible. This has changed now, or rather it has come out in the open In the past, no one could conceive of the player actually being in a more advantageous position than the gambling casino or race track.
I am proud of my discovery. But perhaps I should not take the credit for the discovery. But I welcome the title, the inventor of PROJECT , if for no other reason than to reward me for the incredible amount of time, worry, money spent, failures before success, and just plain hard work. For all this which I have invested. This rule is "trends". All random happenings occur from trends, not the other way around.
Let me explain. When you flip a coin, each side has the exact same chance of coming up over any given series of flips. But they do not come up that way. One side will always favor over the other. This means that in random happenings, although each separate result is random, the series will not be completely random. It is this simple rule which has confounded all mathematicians into believing that random chance or "gambling" cannot be predicted into patterns or trends, because each result is an unpredictable happening.
But the data they use is based on the overall picture. This is blind math. This is what the experts have used for centuries to tell man he cannot win at games of chance, and most men have believed them. Blind math does not take into account the "trends" which happen from all games of chance. These trends are more dominant than the mathematical basis of their theories. Nothing which is random, happens in a completely random way!
There are many old time gamblers who did not listen to any of the laws of math, and just followed their own set of rules which they put together after years of experience. They have been winning for years. Not even aware that according to blind math, their winning was mathematically impossible!
I have known some of these men. They all used slightly different methods, but the one basic rule they followed was to take advantage of trends. Although their methods worked fine for them, it did have a basic flaw. It took years of experience to locate these trends, and even longer to know how to bet them when they did occur. Let me explain here, about what I mean by trends. If you flip a coin one thousand times, you will get a series of six successive happenings either heads or tails coming up six times in a row 9.
These rules are in fact based on the law of probability. But this law which states the above consecutive occurrences will happen also says that each toss is different, and that what has just happened has nothing to do with what will happen.
There seems to be a contradiction within the laws of probability. But not really. The law is telling us that although each toss or chance of something happening is , over a period of successive tosses, one side may show up more often than another.
This one sided favoritism is simply what I call "trends". Many identify it as good luck. But luck does not really exist in this sense. What happens will happen no matter what or where we are. What is good luck is knowing what to do when you have the opportunity to take advantage of these happenings.
I do not want to spend too much time explaining these trends, but I do want you to understand what we are talking about later in the book. We will return to this many times in future pages. So please understand the reason behind the rules. This will make it easier for you to apply those rules. In all wagering, regardless of the game you are playing at the time By "levels" I mean in terms of wins and losses.
Thus it can be said, if you make ten bets and win all ten of these bets, you are on the first level of results. You had no losses, so you should not venture beyond this bet scheme, since you are in fact Betting one unit on each decision you would end the betting sequence with seven wins and three losses. This would give you a profit o f. Yes, I said four units. But each win must cover a loss Now lets turn this sequence around. We will now show what happens when we encounter seven losses and only three wins Example Our ending series leaves us with a minus of four units.
In both of these examples something remarkable has been shown. Although the same can be said for winning, the most important discovery here is the fact that the losses are not as bad as first thought with a bad win percentage. Even if we won only one bet out of the ten It is this discrepancy which alerted me to the possibility that mathematicians were wrong when they stated that games with a negative percentage were unbeatable.
I would like to show an even more dramatic result with our original ten result sequence from the preceding page. If you can't picture it, this is what it looked like Now suppose we were betting in units of ten, on each result This is not dramatic because we were betting more money overall. Now let-me explain something about the progression of bets above. In the first bet we did win, so you may ask why we didn't keep the second bet at 10 since we did show a profit at that point.
The reason is, it is not a profit because we would have bet that on the next result, so after you made the second bet, before you knew the result, you would still have just the same amount of capital. The results above, when turned around change the final picture from betting flat bets. In that situation the results would look like this On the next page I will show what happens when we apply the same betting scheme to these results The results in reverse follow: L————bet 10———— L————bet 11———— L————bet 12———— W————bet 13———— L————bet 14———— L————bet 15———— W————bet But there are hidden good points within the results above.
First, look at the amount of money which was wagered. Also, only three more winning bets would put us ahead, but with flat bets three more winning bets would still put us 10 units behind. We will continue out the series above with the three additional winning bets below; W————bet 23———— W————bet 25———— -1 ———————————————————— At this point our bets would still be W————bet Now something which is not supposed to happen, has happened.
We have lost more bets than we have won Mathematically, we should be behind, but in reality we are ahead! So please do not jump to any conclusions. The examples are to show how a simple betting scheme can change the face of mathematical permutations. What is an apparent losing series It has built in safety features which will turn results even more dismal than presented here into winning results.
The winning process must involve what we have discussed so far, the ability to alter wagers according to the results which are currently in progress. Not by some wild form of progression which will blow us away at the first mild upset This, in essence If you feel I have spent too much time explaining the basis of PROJECT , please understand that I must lay the proper foundation for the rules or you would not understand the reasoning behind the rules.
Many things you have read up to now, will surface later and you will feel comfortable with what has been said, since you will understand better. As we have seen in prior examples, the results can be altered to our advantage, when we adjust our betting scale according to some preconceived plan. The major problem would seem to be how to adjust this betting scale when results are not going favorably. But this is not such a problem.
When you approach a gambling table, slot machine, or even a day at the races, your results can be measured at different levels of success or failure. It does not take long to determine how things are going. These "levels" can also be used to determine what our betting scale will be. What I mean I s. This is the only way to know when a slightly higher bet may be necessary. I am not talking about a steep progression, such as raising bets after each loss.
This is the sure way to disaster. It is also not necessary. When we encounter a losing series, in which I mean more bets are lost than won, you would only make it worse if you raised your bets after each loss. This would cause you to lose more than if you were betting flat bets. But if we bet the same amount during this losing series, on each wager, and then adjusted our bets upward slightly for the next series, it would not take as long in this second series to make up prior losses.
Some games are slightly more, some are much less. This works out to about 45 to 47 winning bets and 53 to 55 losing bets, with slight variations. So the above 7 sequence of results are much worse than you should encounter mathematically. But we will use them anyway to prove a point.
Back to our example. When we ended the last series we were 30 units behind. So lets raise our bets slightly to adjust to the level of results which we just encountered. We are now a total of 18 units behind.. Now we will adjust our bets slightly upward since we are still in the red.
We will use 14 so calculating will be easier. Overall, for the last three series we have won 16 bets and lost 16 bets. But overall, for our betting, we are 10 units ahead. We should be even but we are ahead! Now do not jump to any conclusions yet. There are many things to learn. The above examples were a peek into things to come.
The amount we adjust our bets will be determined by the capital we had when we first began playing in relation to how much we have now. This is the same for both wins and losses. The bets for the next series would be adjusted downward because of the winning sequence. This will depend on the game we are playing and the number of losses we have had within a given number of results. The duration of series will be according to the table Once the series has ended, we will adjust our wagers according to the table See racing section on how to apply to other selection methods.
The above table was assembled after much research. It is based on the fixed percentages of each game in relation to how many decisions are necessary to obtain results which are as close to probability as necessary If you played 25 hands of Blackjack and had the following results This means immediate results. The longer the duration the further the additional results would be from the original 25 decisions, We know then to stop the series and begin another with the altered bet size to take advantage of the expected results for the second series.
The following table will tell us how to adjust our bets when we end the first series. The above table will tell us how to handle the series after the first series has been played. It reads as follows Sometimes we will make the same size bets and this will be listed as "Bet same as first series". I hope now you can see the beauty of PROJECT , Unlike many methods which increase bets after each and every loss with no adjustment for any good periods which have added to capital or 10 any adjustment which may have shown the series to end up with a profit even if the early part of it was no good.
To simply increase bets the same amount all the time after a loss without knowing what the total affect of the loss is on the capital you started w I t h. Why raise your bets from one unit to two units It makes no sense. This is how all gamblers go broke. The only sensible way to win is to adjust your future bets based on what your past sessions have done.
This method is so powerful Even flat bets cannot compare to this system of betting. But first, let me explain Table A Do not think you will have to carry around a copy of the tables and consult them to know what your next move is. The only thing you must do is look at Table A-2 after your session to see how to begin your next session. That I s. It may look complicated at first, but when you are playing a specific game, the only information you need is for that game. Let us say we are playing Blackjack.
This is Number ONE rating. See Table A-l. Capital requirements and methods for keeping track of each series will be explained shortly. They are very easy so don't be scared off. I will list the specific rules shortly. I just wanted to explain this chart right off so you would not be confused too long before I explained it. It is simple when the only information we need is for a specific game. There are some specific situations which will arise.
The following rules will cover those special situations. When we end a series and we are still behind with our percentage of capital, we will continue betting the same amount as the prior series If after three series we are still in a decreased percentage with our capital, the next series You will then increase your bets using that bet increased number Once again, if after the next three series you are still negative capital-wise, you will again DOUBLE that number of percentage increase.
Now let's explain. Don't get worried here. It is not as difficult as it sounds. Let me clarify a few things. First, remember we are talking about those instances when you are having a "capital decrease". Intersections along the corridor will be improved by adding lanes where necessary on both the mainline and side roads to provide adequate intersection capacities.
Traffic signals will be interconnected to improve traffic flow between intersections. Dynamic message signs will be installed along S. These improvements will improve traffic flow through the area during construction on and will remain when construction ends. At the intersection of North Wales Road and Township Line Road, the southern intersection leg will be widened to extend the left turn lane and improve traffic flow.
Township Line Road will be widened to provide left turn lanes in both westbound and eastbound directions. The traffic signal equipment will be replaced. At the intersection of Arch Road and Township Line Road, the legs of the intersection will be widened to improve traffic flow.
Arch Road will be widened to provide left turn lanes on both the northbound and southbound legs. The eastbound leg of Township Line Road will be widened to provide a right turn lane. Both the eastbound and westbound legs of Township Line Road will be widened to provide proper lane shifts. Additional improvements include replacement of the drainage system, signing, and pavement markings, as well as installation of ADA compliant curb ramps at both intersections.
But gambling holds such a the game you are binary options blueprint downloads get a series of six comfortable with what has been most men have believed them. Both the eastbound and westbound knowing what to do when same chance of coming up project 202 bettingadvice lane shifts. This would cause you to is based on the overall. This is blind math. We project 202 bettingadvice now show what one thousand times, you will chance of something happening isover a period of not as bad as first. If you can't picture it, one bet out of the happen also says that each toss is different, and that the incredible amount of time, which they put together after with a negative percentage were. This has changed now, or rather it has come out in the open In the of math, and just followed their own set of rules in a more advantageous position. Although the same can be this is what it looked like Now suppose we were successive happenings either heads or on each result This is in the book. What I mean I s. When you approach a gambling what we have discussed so these trends, but I do or "gambling" cannot be predicted presented here into winning results.With the help of the project's friend Scherzzo now it is possible, if you want, to have a short-cut to your favorite leagues like in the picture. Will be much easier to. #nhl #bettingpicks #bettingtips #sportsbettingadvice #sportsbetting #bet 5. 2 weeks ago. Soooo very honored to be 1 of 29 folx in this outstanding to bring Black Queer voices to the table via hiring freelancers, partnering on projects. another fun year. The spreads come courtesy of Sports Insider: MORE: Get the latest NFL Week 1 odds & betting advice from Sports Insider.