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Successful gamblers back just as many, if not more, losers than winners. The second model I tried was based on the Euro Club index , which assigns points based on the result of matches between teams. Every time a team wins a match it gains index points and when it loses, the team loses index points. This is similar to the Elo rating that is used in chess and other sports. The third model was based on a concept called expected goals.
In this model, each shot a team makes is assigned a value based on historical data of shots taken in similar situations. My model based on expected goals resulted in some spectacular gains early on in the season. It predicted the decline of Chelsea, but it overrated Arsenal and Liverpool. As the season progressed it became clear that a fourth and final model, which I called the odds bias model was the most reliable.
The bias can be explained by punters being attracted by the potential of big profits offered by large odds, and undervaluing the smaller gains to be had by betting on the favourite and bookmakers adjusting their odds accordingly. I found a long-shot bias in earlier Premier League seasons. For example, in , putting money on Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City against teams lower in the table would have given a small but reliable week-on-week pay-off. Not only did some bookmakers initially offer Leicester at 5, to 1 to win the league, but they were also undervalued in almost every match they played.
When Manchester United host Manchester City or Arsenal visit Liverpool, these matches see two very well matched teams play each other. But punters like to see a win in one direction or the other and the bookmakers increase the odds for a draw. This is a consistent bias over a number of Premier League seasons, and the season was no exception.
After that, my betting became more sporadic. I placed a few bets when I had time, but I often forgot. There is more to life than gambling. It is, however, possible for me to assess how I would have done if I had continued to bet. The website www. It turns out that my model continued to hold its own throughout the season. Not bad at all in the current economic climate.
It is this. Lovisa Sumpter is a very talented individual. She is an associate professor of mathematics education in Sweden, where we live, and a qualified yoga instructor. She also has a much better record than her husband in football betting. When she was still a student, Lovisa correctly predicted the outcome of every one of the 13 matches in the Swedish Stryktipset. Given her record, I asked Lovisa if she would try her luck as a benchmark model. She would represent the typical punter.
I have to admit, I expected her to lose. How wrong I was. In fact, given that Lovisa cashed in her winnings after only four weeks, the rate of return on her investment was higher than mine.
If they are good enough, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run. They built a Web crawler that gathered the odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world. They calculated the average odds, found any outliers, and then worked out whether a bet would favor them or not. This simulation paid out 44 percent of the time and delivered a yield of 3. An important question is whether this result could have been pure chance.
Could they simply have got lucky? So the team compared their results to 2, simulations in which they placed bets randomly on the same games. In that case, the bets paid out 39 percent of time at a return of That allowed the team to calculate the likelihood that their first result was a fluke. That gave Kaunitz and co good reason to think their method would work in the real world, but there was a problem.
Ordinary punters cannot always bet on closing odds, which can vary significantly from the odds given in the run-up to a game. So Kaunitz and co decided to simulate this, too. The way odds vary in the run-up to games is not publicly available, so the team created a bot that collected these odds from betting websites around the world from September to the end of February Then they tested their approach in this data set.
The results were even better. Their bets paid off Curiously, a random betting strategy on the same data yielded a return of 0. This is important because it allows them to check whether the quoted odds are actually available with an online bookmaker. Indeed, they discovered that about 30 percent of the time, the odds had changed by the time they attempted to check online.
In those cases, they discarded the bet. But the strategy was still profitable. After three months of paper trading, their bets retuned a profit of 5. During that period, their bets paid off Eagle-eyed readers will notice that the number of bets they placed was significantly less than during the paper trading period. But their story comes with a sting.
The team points out that this kind of practice could be illegal. And they call on governments to properly regulate the gambling industry and to prevent this kind of practice in the future. All companies are not the same and all games are not the same.
Find a betting company that suits you and has odds that are slightly better than the market. Therefore you will be able to get 1. If you look at betting amounts of 1, euros cumulatively, winnings will be euros and so on. You need to prioritize your needs and understand that betting is not a job. It is also not a life-long profession that you can do forever because there is risk involved, unless you are a top betting guru.
A lower profile money management and a little moderation does not hurt. Play your bet with as much money as you can bet and no more than you can afford. See the game you played and enjoy the game. During the game, if you are not relaxed and you can not see the game because you have wagered your whole money then you have to change direction.
If you are not relaxed and you feel stress then you will not have fun and you will not enjoy football betting. Last but not least, you need to have some capital to invest in betting. Do not spend enormus amounts of money whenever you have some. Calculate each month your profits and see how many matches you have lost and how many you have won.
Your goal is winners to be more than losses. Your job is to identify opportunities and identify which game has those characteristics that will give you the odds you want and that you can easily win. Your capital is very important and it should not be lost but only to grow. Each bet is a separate one but we must always have more wins than defeats per month in order to increase our working capital and make profits steadily each month.
You can keep match results in Excel.