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It is therefore difficult to see whether, and in what way, his results differ for a different wage rate, nor is it clear what he thought about the matter. An increase in the money supply, according to Keynes's theory, leads to a drop in the interest rate and an increase in the amount of investment that can be undertaken profitably, bringing with it an increase in total income. Keynes' name is associated with fiscal, rather than monetary, measures but they receive only passing and often satirical reference in the General Theory.
He mentions "increased public works" as an example of something that brings employment through the multiplier ,  but this is before he develops the relevant theory, and he does not follow up when he gets to the theory. Ancient Egypt was doubly fortunate, and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth, in that it possessed two activities, namely, pyramid-building as well as the search for the precious metals, the fruits of which, since they could not serve the needs of man by being consumed, did not stale with abundance.
The Middle Ages built cathedrals and sang dirges. Two pyramids, two masses for the dead, are twice as good as one; but not so two railways from London to York. But again, he doesn't get back to his implied recommendation to engage in public works, even if not fully justified from their direct benefits, when he constructs the theory. On the contrary he later advises us that Keynes' view of saving and investment was his most important departure from the classical outlook.
It can be illustrated using the " Keynesian cross " devised by Paul Samuelson. Keynes interprets this as the demand for investment and denotes the sum of demands for consumption and investment as " aggregate demand ", plotted as a separate curve. Keynes takes note of this view in Chapter 2, where he finds it present in the early writings of Alfred Marshall but adds that "the doctrine is never stated to-day in this crude form". Keynes introduces his discussion of the multiplier in Chapter 10 with a reference to Kahn's earlier paper see below.
He designates Kahn's multiplier the "employment multiplier" in distinction to his own "investment multiplier" and says that the two are only "a little different". The schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital is identified as one of the independent variables of the economic system:  "What [it] tells us, is Shackle regarded Keynes' move away from Kahn's multiplier as For when we look upon the Multiplier as an instantaneous functional relation Ambrosi cites as an instance of "a Keynesian commentator who would have liked Keynes to have written something less 'retrograde ' ".
This is the same as the formula for Kahn's mutliplier in a closed economy assuming that all saving including the purchase of durable goods , and not just hoarding, constitutes leakage. Keynes gave his formula almost the status of a definition it is put forward in advance of any explanation .
His multiplier is indeed the value of "the ratio Keynes did not investigate the question of whether his formula for multiplier needed revision. The liquidity trap is a phenomenon that may impede the effectiveness of monetary policies in reducing unemployment. Economists generally think the rate of interest will not fall below a certain limit, often seen as zero or a slightly negative number. Keynes suggested that the limit might be appreciably greater than zero but did not attach much practical significance to it.
Keynes and the Classics "  who recognised the significance of a slightly different concept. As Hicks put it, "Monetary means will not force down the rate of interest any further. Paul Krugman has worked extensively on the liquidity trap, claiming that it was the problem confronting the Japanese economy around the turn of the millennium.
Short-term interest rates were close to zero, long-term rates were at historical lows, yet private investment spending remained insufficient to bring the economy out of deflation. In that environment, monetary policy was just as ineffective as Keynes described. Attempts by the Bank of Japan to increase the money supply simply added to already ample bank reserves and public holdings of cash Hicks showed how to analyze Keynes' system when liquidity preference is a function of income as well as of the rate of interest.
Less classically he extends this generalization to the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital. Hicks has now repented and changed his name from J. Hicks subsequently relapsed. Keynes argued that the solution to the Great Depression was to stimulate the country "incentive to invest" through some combination of two approaches:. If the interest rate at which businesses and consumers can borrow decreases, investments that were previously uneconomic become profitable, and large consumer sales normally financed through debt such as houses, automobiles, and, historically, even appliances like refrigerators become more affordable.
A principal function of central banks in countries that have them is to influence this interest rate through a variety of mechanisms collectively called monetary policy. This is how monetary policy that reduces interest rates is thought to stimulate economic activity, i.
Expansionary fiscal policy consists of increasing net public spending, which the government can effect by a taxing less, b spending more, or c both. Investment and consumption by government raises demand for businesses' products and for employment, reversing the effects of the aforementioned imbalance. If desired spending exceeds revenue, the government finances the difference by borrowing from capital markets by issuing government bonds.
This is called deficit spending. Two points are important to note at this point. First, deficits are not required for expansionary fiscal policy, and second, it is only change in net spending that can stimulate or depress the economy. But — contrary to some critical characterizations of it — Keynesianism does not consist solely of deficit spending , since it recommends adjusting fiscal policies according to cyclical circumstances. Keynes's ideas influenced Franklin D.
Roosevelt 's view that insufficient buying-power caused the Depression. During his presidency, Roosevelt adopted some aspects of Keynesian economics, especially after , when, in the depths of the Depression, the United States suffered from recession yet again following fiscal contraction.
But to many the true success of Keynesian policy can be seen at the onset of World War II , which provided a kick to the world economy, removed uncertainty, and forced the rebuilding of destroyed capital. Keynesian ideas became almost official in social-democratic Europe after the war and in the U. The Keynesian advocacy of deficit spending contrasted with the classical and neoclassical economic analysis of fiscal policy. They admitted that fiscal stimulus could actuate production.
But, to these schools, there was no reason to believe that this stimulation would outrun the side-effects that " crowd out " private investment: first, it would increase the demand for labour and raise wages, hurting profitability ; Second, a government deficit increases the stock of government bonds, reducing their market price and encouraging high interest rates , making it more expensive for business to finance fixed investment.
Thus, efforts to stimulate the economy would be self-defeating. The Keynesian response is that such fiscal policy is appropriate only when unemployment is persistently high, above the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment NAIRU. In that case, crowding out is minimal. Further, private investment can be "crowded in": Fiscal stimulus raises the market for business output, raising cash flow and profitability, spurring business optimism. To Keynes, this accelerator effect meant that government and business could be complements rather than substitutes in this situation.
Second, as the stimulus occurs, gross domestic product rises—raising the amount of saving , helping to finance the increase in fixed investment. Finally, government outlays need not always be wasteful: government investment in public goods that is not provided by profit-seekers encourages the private sector's growth. That is, government spending on such things as basic research, public health, education, and infrastructure could help the long-term growth of potential output.
In Keynes's theory, there must be significant slack in the labour market before fiscal expansion is justified. Keynesian economists believe that adding to profits and incomes during boom cycles through tax cuts, and removing income and profits from the economy through cuts in spending during downturns, tends to exacerbate the negative effects of the business cycle. This effect is especially pronounced when the government controls a large fraction of the economy, as increased tax revenue may aid investment in state enterprises in downturns, and decreased state revenue and investment harm those enterprises.
In the last few years of his life, John Maynard Keynes was much preoccupied with the question of balance in international trade. He was the leader of the British delegation to the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in that established the Bretton Woods system of international currency management. He was the principal author of a proposal — the so-called Keynes Plan — for an International Clearing Union. The two governing principles of the plan were that the problem of settling outstanding balances should be solved by 'creating' additional 'international money', and that debtor and creditor should be treated almost alike as disturbers of equilibrium.
In the event, though, the plans were rejected, in part because "American opinion was naturally reluctant to accept the principle of equality of treatment so novel in debtor-creditor relationships". The new system is not founded on free trade liberalisation  of foreign trade  but rather on regulating international trade to eliminate trade imbalances. Nations with a surplus would have a powerful incentive to get rid of it, which would automatically clear other nations' deficits.
Every country would have an overdraft facility in its bancor account at the International Clearing Union. He pointed out that surpluses lead to weak global aggregate demand — countries running surpluses exert a "negative externality" on trading partners, and posed far more than those in deficit, a threat to global prosperity.
Keynes thought that surplus countries should be taxed to avoid trade imbalances. His view, supported by many economists and commentators at the time, was that creditor nations may be just as responsible as debtor nations for disequilibrium in exchanges and that both should be under an obligation to bring trade back into a state of balance. Failure for them to do so could have serious consequences. In the words of Geoffrey Crowther , then editor of The Economist , "If the economic relationships between nations are not, by one means or another, brought fairly close to balance, then there is no set of financial arrangements that can rescue the world from the impoverishing results of chaos.
These ideas were informed by events prior to the Great Depression when — in the opinion of Keynes and others — international lending, primarily by the U. Influenced by Keynes, economic texts in the immediate post-war period put a significant emphasis on balance in trade. For example, the second edition of the popular introductory textbook, An Outline of Money ,  devoted the last three of its ten chapters to questions of foreign exchange management and in particular the 'problem of balance'.
However, in more recent years, since the end of the Bretton Woods system in , with the increasing influence of Monetarist schools of thought in the s, and particularly in the face of large sustained trade imbalances, these concerns — and particularly concerns about the destabilising effects of large trade surpluses — have largely disappeared from mainstream economics discourse  and Keynes' insights have slipped from view. Keynes's ideas became widely accepted after World War II , and until the early s, Keynesian economics provided the main inspiration for economic policy makers in Western industrialized countries.
In the early era of social liberalism and social democracy , most western capitalist countries enjoyed low, stable unemployment and modest inflation, an era called the Golden Age of Capitalism. In terms of policy, the twin tools of post-war Keynesian economics were fiscal policy and monetary policy. While these are credited to Keynes, others, such as economic historian David Colander , argue that they are, rather, due to the interpretation of Keynes by Abba Lerner in his theory of functional finance , and should instead be called "Lernerian" rather than "Keynesian".
Through the s, moderate degrees of government demand leading industrial development, and use of fiscal and monetary counter-cyclical policies continued, and reached a peak in the "go go" s, where it seemed to many Keynesians that prosperity was now permanent.
Beginning in the late s, a new classical macroeconomics movement arose, critical of Keynesian assumptions see sticky prices , and seemed, especially in the s, to explain certain phenomena better. It was characterized by explicit and rigorous adherence to microfoundations , as well as use of increasingly sophisticated mathematical modelling. With the oil shock of , and the economic problems of the s, Keynesian economics began to fall out of favour.
During this time, many economies experienced high and rising unemployment, coupled with high and rising inflation, contradicting the Phillips curve 's prediction. This stagflation meant that the simultaneous application of expansionary anti-recession and contractionary anti-inflation policies appeared necessary. This dilemma led to the end of the Keynesian near-consensus of the s, and the rise throughout the s of ideas based upon more classical analysis, including monetarism , supply-side economics ,  and new classical economics.
However, by the late s, certain failures of the new classical models, both theoretical see Real business cycle theory and empirical see the "Volcker recession"  hastened the emergence of New Keynesian economics , a school that sought to unite the most realistic aspects of Keynesian and neo-classical assumptions and place them on more rigorous theoretical foundation than ever before. One line of thinking, utilized also as a critique of the notably high unemployment and potentially disappointing GNP growth rates associated with the new classical models by the mids, was to emphasize low unemployment and maximal economic growth at the cost of somewhat higher inflation its consequences kept in check by indexing and other methods, and its overall rate kept lower and steadier by such potential policies as Martin Weitzman's share economy.
Multiple schools of economic thought that trace their legacy to Keynes currently exist, the notable ones being neo-Keynesian economics , New Keynesian economics , post-Keynesian economics , and the new neoclassical synthesis. Keynes's biographer Robert Skidelsky writes that the post-Keynesian school has remained closest to the spirit of Keynes's work in following his monetary theory and rejecting the neutrality of money. In the postwar era, Keynesian analysis was combined with neoclassical economics to produce what is generally termed the " neoclassical synthesis ", yielding neo-Keynesian economics , which dominated mainstream macroeconomic thought.
Though it was widely held that there was no strong automatic tendency to full employment, many believed that if government policy were used to ensure it, the economy would behave as neoclassical theory predicted. This post-war domination by neo-Keynesian economics was broken during the stagflation of the s. Post-Keynesian economists, on the other hand, reject the neoclassical synthesis and, in general, neoclassical economics applied to the macroeconomy.
Post-Keynesian economics is a heterodox school that holds that both neo-Keynesian economics and New Keynesian economics are incorrect, and a misinterpretation of Keynes's ideas. The post-Keynesian school encompasses a variety of perspectives, but has been far less influential than the other more mainstream Keynesian schools. Interpretations of Keynes have emphasized his stress on the international coordination of Keynesian policies, the need for international economic institutions, and the ways in which economic forces could lead to war or could promote peace.
In a paper, economist Alan Blinder argues that, "for not very good reasons," public opinion in the United States has associated Keynesianism with liberalism, and he states that such is incorrect. Bush supported policies that were, in fact, Keynesian, even though both men were conservative leaders.
And tax cuts can provide highly helpful fiscal stimulus during a recession, just as much as infrastructure spending can. Blinder concludes, "If you are not teaching your students that 'Keynesianism' is neither conservative nor liberal, you should be. The Keynesian schools of economics are situated alongside a number of other schools that have the same perspectives on what the economic issues are, but differ on what causes them and how best to resolve them.
Today, most of these schools of thought have been subsumed into modern macroeconomic theory. The Stockholm school rose to prominence at about the same time that Keynes published his General Theory and shared a common concern in business cycles and unemployment. The second generation of Swedish economists also advocated government intervention through spending during economic downturns  although opinions are divided over whether they conceived the essence of Keynes's theory before he did.
There was debate between monetarists and Keynesians in the s over the role of government in stabilizing the economy. Both monetarists and Keynesians agree that issues such as business cycles, unemployment, and deflation are caused by inadequate demand. However, they had fundamentally different perspectives on the capacity of the economy to find its own equilibrium, and the degree of government intervention that would be appropriate.
Keynesians emphasized the use of discretionary fiscal policy and monetary policy , while monetarists argued the primacy of monetary policy, and that it should be rules-based. The debate was largely resolved in the s. Since then, economists have largely agreed that central banks should bear the primary responsibility for stabilizing the economy, and that monetary policy should largely follow the Taylor rule — which many economists credit with the Great Moderation.
Some Marxist economists criticized Keynesian economics. Sweezy argued that Keynes had never been able to view the capitalist system as a totality. He argued that Keynes regarded the class struggle carelessly, and overlooked the class role of the capitalist state, which he treated as a deus ex machina , and some other points.
In the article Kalecki predicted that the full employment delivered by Keynesian policy would eventually lead to a more assertive working class and weakening of the social position of business leaders, causing the elite to use their political power to force the displacement of the Keynesian policy even though profits would be higher than under a laissez faire system: The erosion of social prestige and political power would be unacceptable to the elites despite higher profits.
James M. Buchanan  criticized Keynesian economics on the grounds that governments would in practice be unlikely to implement theoretically optimal policies. The implicit assumption underlying the Keynesian fiscal revolution, according to Buchanan, was that economic policy would be made by wise men, acting without regard to political pressures or opportunities, and guided by disinterested economic technocrats.
He argued that this was an unrealistic assumption about political, bureaucratic and electoral behaviour. Buchanan blamed Keynesian economics for what he considered a decline in America's fiscal discipline. First, he thought whatever the economic analysis, benevolent dictatorship is likely sooner or later to lead to a totalitarian society.
Second, he thought Keynes's economic theories appealed to a group far broader than economists primarily because of their link to his political approach. In response to this argument, John Quiggin ,  wrote about these theories' implication for a liberal democratic order. He thought that if it is generally accepted that democratic politics is nothing more than a battleground for competing interest groups, then reality will come to resemble the model.
He argued, "if you have a problem with politicians - criticize politicians," not Keynes. Brad DeLong has argued that politics is the main motivator behind objections to the view that government should try to serve a stabilizing macroeconomic role.
Another influential school of thought was based on the Lucas critique of Keynesian economics. This called for greater consistency with microeconomic theory and rationality, and in particular emphasized the idea of rational expectations. Lucas and others argued that Keynesian economics required remarkably foolish and short-sighted behaviour from people, which totally contradicted the economic understanding of their behaviour at a micro level.
New classical economics introduced a set of macroeconomic theories that were based on optimizing microeconomic behaviour. These models have been developed into the real business-cycle theory , which argues that business cycle fluctuations can to a large extent be accounted for by real in contrast to nominal shocks.
Beginning in the late s new classical macroeconomists began to disagree with the methodology employed by Keynes and his successors. Keynesians emphasized the dependence of consumption on disposable income and, also, of investment on current profits and current cash flow.
In addition, Keynesians posited a Phillips curve that tied nominal wage inflation to unemployment rate. To support these theories, Keynesians typically traced the logical foundations of their model using introspection and supported their assumptions with statistical evidence.
The result of this shift in methodology produced several important divergences from Keynesian macroeconomics: . From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Part of a series on Capitalism Concepts. Economic systems. Economic theories.
Related topics. Basic concepts. Fiscal Monetary Commercial Central bank. Related fields. Econometrics Economic statistics Monetary economics Development economics International economics. Edward C. Sargent Paul Krugman N. Gregory Mankiw. See also. Macroeconomic model Publications in macroeconomics Economics Applied Microeconomics Political economy Mathematical economics. See also: Underconsumption , Birmingham School economics , and Stockholm school economics. This section has multiple issues.
Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. Learn how and when to remove these template messages. This section includes a list of general references , but it remains largely unverified because it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations.
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Please help improve it by rewriting it in an encyclopedic style. Main article: Stockholm school economics. Main article: Monetarism. See also: Marxian economics. See also: Public choice. Main article: New classical macroeconomics. See also: Lucas critique. Business and economics portal. The World Transformed: to the present. Palgrave MacMillan. Der Spiegel. Retrieved 13 August Economics: Principles in Action. Concise Encyclopedia of Economics.
Library of Economics and Liberty. Retrieved 23 August In Glasner, David ed. Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia. Retrieved 15 June Economic Journal. History of Political Economy. The Fallacy of Saving. Kitchener: Batoche Books. Dimand, op. Samuelson, Economics: an introductory analysis , and many subsequent editions. Kahn's presentation is more complicated owing to the inclusion of dole and other factors.
See below. Samuelson, Economics: an introductory analysis and many subsequent editions. See a discussion in the work by G. Ambrosi, Keynes, Pigou and Cambridge Keynesians
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