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Bagaimana perkembangan industri rokok Indonesia saat ini? Dampak regulasi pemerintah terkini terhadap industri rokok? Prospek industri rokok ke depan? Persepsi investor saham terhadap industri rokok? Lingkungan Ekonomi Pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik berada pada tren perlambatan sejak tahun yang antara lain disebabkan oleh lemahnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan tren rendah harga komoditas dunia.
Perekonomian Indonesia mendapatkan momentum pemulihan pada semester kedua tahun ketika program belanja infratruktur dari pemerintah Jokowi mulai menunjukkan dampaknya. Tingkat inflasi pun dapat dijaga rendah pada tahun yang sebesar 3. Terjaganya tingkat inflasi membuat Bank Indonesia memiliki ruang yang lebar untuk melakukan pelonggaran moneter. Hal ini terlihat pada penurunan suku bunga acuan sebanyak empat kali pada tahun ini total bps.
Dengan ditopang oleh belanja pemerintah, terjaganya inflasi, serta kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif diharapkan dapat menjaga daya beli konsumen yang lebih lanjut akan dapat menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik. Menggunakan data tahunan dari — , maka korelasi antara pertumbuhan volume industri rokok terhadap pertumbuhan GDP adalah sebesar 0. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa volume industri rokok akan bergerak mengikuti tren pertumbuhan GDP dan bergerak terbalik terhadap tren tingkat inflasi.
Gambar 1. Lingkungan Industri Pertumbuhan industri rokok mengalami stagnasi dalam empat tahun terakhir apabila dilihat dari sisi volume penjualan. Maka apabila dilihat secara jangka panjang, laju pertumbuhan dalam empat tahun terakhir dari industri rokok saat ini berada di bawah rata — rata laju pertumbuhan jangka panjangnya. Gambar 2. Gambar 3. Gambar 4. Hasil Survey Terkait Konsumsi Rokok Berdasarkan Area Survey tersebut juga mengungkapkan bahwa dari sisi demografi, segmen yang mengkonsumsi rokok lebih rendah adalah kelompok konsumen muda dan kelompok dengan tingkat penghasilan yang tinggi.
Sementara untuk kelompok konsumen dewasa tingkat konsumsi cenderung stabil dan menariknya menariknya, kelompok konsumen dengan tingkat penghasilan yang rendah justru menunjukkan tren peningkatan konsumsi rokok dari tahun ke Gambar 6. Sedangkan untuk konsumen dengan tingkat penghasilan tinggi cenderung mengalami peningkatan tren konsumsi.
Segmen dengan tingkat penghasilan rendah mencatat peningkatan konsumsi konsu untuk periode — Gambar 8. Lingkungan Pemerintah Industri rokok adalah salah satu industri yang diregulasi ketat oleh pemerintah. Pada semua rantai pasokan setidaknya terdapat satu regulasi pemerintah di dalamnya. Tabel 1. Poin utama dalam peraturan tersebut adalah: 1. Pemerintah menaikkan batas produksi untuk masing — masing golongan produsen rokok.
Perubahan Batas Produksi Rokok per-Golongan Industri Dampak dari peraturan baru tersebut adalah tingkat kompetisi diperkirakan akan semakin ketat ke depannya. Maka apabila volume produksi tahun depan diasumsikan flat sama dengan tahun maka dari pemain Golongan II akan terdapat tambahan produksi supply sebesar Lingkungan Bahan Baku dan SDM Industri rokok di Indonesia melibatkan sekitar 5,98 juta pekerja yang terdiri dari 4,28 juta pekerja di sektor manufaktur dan distribusi, dan 1,7 juta pekerja di sektor perkebunan.
Kediri, Kudus, Malang, dan Surabaya merupakan daerah sentra utama industri rokok Indonesia. Jumlah perusahaan rokok di Indonesia mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan dari 3. Gambar 9. Namun demikian apabila dilihat dari areal luas lahan perkebunan tembakau di Indonesia mengalami penyusutan dari Penurunan produksi tembakau ini antara lain dipengaruhi oleh PP No. Melalui peraturan tersebut pengusaha terpaksa menggunakan tembakau impor untuk dapat memenuhi peraturan tersebut.
Akibatnya, Indonesia masih mencatatkan defisit neraca perdagangan pada produk Tembakau sebesar USD Sedangkan kebutuhan cengkeh akan berbeda-beda untuk setiap jenis rokok. Sementara segmen produk lainnya mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan. Gambar Persaingan yang semakin ketat. Pertumbuhan biaya pokok penjualan lebih tinggi dari pertumbuhan pendapatan.
Semakin banyaknya regulasi pemerintah yang membatasi pertumbuhan industri rokok. Dari pengamatan terhadap empat perusahaan rokok Tbk. Hal ini berdampak pada tergerusnya Gross Margin untuk kedua perusahaan tersebut. Sementara WIIM walaupun tidak konsisten, terdapat dua periode yaitu tahun dan ketika perusahaan mampu mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan di atas pertumbuhan COGS. Khusus untuk HMSP, perusahaan melakukan perubahan pencatatan beban pita cukai sejak tahun dengan memasukkan pita cukai atas barang dagangan yang dibeli dari PT Philip Morris Indonesia yang telah terjual.
Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa tingkat persaingan antara pemain nomor satu dan dua cukup ketat. Studi Kasus Industri Semen Untuk dapat memahami bagaimana persepsi investor saham terhadap perkembangan industri rokok, maka kajian ini mencoba melihat perkembangan yang terjadi pada industri semen.
Studi pada industri semen dilakukan karena industri ini memiliki tantangan yang serupa dengan industri rokok yaitu: penurunan demand di tengah kompetisi yang semakin ketat. Seiring dengan terjadinya perlambatan ekonomi Indonesia sejak tahun , maka rasio Cement Consumption to GDP Ratio juga terlihat mengalami perlambatan. Hal ini disebabkan ketika perekonomian melambat maka pembangunan konstruksi dan infrastruktur cenderung turut melambat sehingga permintaan terhadap semen berkurang.
Pertumbuhan supply tersebut disebabkan oleh aktivitas ekspansi para pemain terutama Top 3 dengan meningkatkan kapasitas produksi penambahan pabrik. Pertumbuhan Supply — Demand Industri Semen Pada periode waktu tahun — , terlihat bahwa pertumbuhan demand yang tinggi membuat utilisasi kapasitas pabrik semen meningkat yang artinya excess capacity berangsur turun setiap tahunnya. Dengan struktur pasar oligopolistik, tingginya permintaan semen serta profitabilitas yang menarik membuat para pemain agresif untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksinya.
Akibatnya excess capacity berangsur meningkat pada tahun — dan tren ini diperkirakan akan terus berlanjut hingga tahun seiring dengan masuknya beberapa pemain baru seperti Semen Bosowa, Semen Merah Putih, Siam Cement, dan Anhui Conh. Barrier to entry utama dalam industri semen adalah tingkat investasi yang tinggi, kepemilikan sumber bahan baku, dan jaringan distribusi.
Namun hal tersebut tidak mengurangi minat para investor dan pemain lain untuk berusaha mengambil celah pasar dalam industri semen. Apabila dilihat perkembangan market share per-tahun, pemain Top 3 mulai kehilangan market share sejak tahun sementara pemain lainnya mengalami peningkatan market share. Perkembangan Market Share Top 3 dan Non-Top 3 Dengan demikian secara perlahan pola persaingan pada industri semen sedang mengalami pergeseran dari dominasi tiga pemain besar menuju beberapa pemain besar.
Tingkat persaingan pun diperkirakan akan semakin ketat karena para pemain meningkatkan kapasitas produksi sementara pertumbuhn permintaan cenderung mengalami perlambatan. Automatic Kurkure Nik naks Keropok plastic bag packing food snack packaging machine. Up to 5 years warranty Easy to operate. Chin chin snack food packaging machine automatic puffed keropok chips packing machine with nitrogen multi heads weigher.
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Candidates must have strong mathematical and programming skills, with a minimum of 3 years' experience ideally in EM in the financial industry. We have recently opened an exciting new role to lead our data team - this role will lead development of a data strategy at RCM, managing the costs for data and turning data into a strategic asset for RCM. We are looking to hire a Data Analyst to join our new Data Management team. This new hire would initially work on static data using the world renowned EDM platform but over time will also cover market data.
Prior experience with EDM would be beneficial. This new hire will initially look at building a repository of our market data contracts and over time work will work with the market data team to build tools and practices to ensure we are being efficient with our data.
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If you wish to remove cookies set by our site from your browser in the future, you may delete them. A Chartered Engineer, Jonathan has worked in engineering and management roles for electronic and automotive businesses and was also a Consulting Director for a big 4 consulting firm working mostly on supply chain improvement, customer service and the implementation of lean methodologies for Hi-tech businesses around the world.
For Kero, Jonathan has provided broad business analysis and project management support to investee companies allowing the management teams to focus on the achievement of business goals. In his spare time, Jonathan is a keen amateur astronomer and also volunteers at the Museum of Zoology in Cambridge. She works with start-ups and spinouts companies covering energy, oil and gas, infrastructure, engineering including digital and sensor technology.
With a career in global sales and marketing in the engineering and energy industry, Gillian brings operational, commercial and strategic board expertise to Kero investee companies. Debbie is a part qualified chartered management accountant. As the company trebled in size Debbie set up systems and controls to manage both the Finance and Customer Service Departments.
Debbie also held the roles of Customer Services Manager and Project Accountant, and was involved to some degree in every department within the company. Debbie brings a wealth of experience gained in revising systems and controls needed to ensure the effective running of a small company as it expanded.
Having recently joined the Kero team, Hannah will be assisting with the day to day tasks that are essential for the daily running of the companies. This involves providing administrative support as well as assisting with the financial aspects such as bookkeeping and accounts. By taking care of the daily organizational and financial tasks this will allow for the companies to refocus their critical resources towards their core goals and future development.
For key individuals this will free up time that would have otherwise been spent on administrative tasks and allow for increased operational efficiency. Hannah is from accountancy practice background and is currently studying towards her Level 3 Advanced Diploma in Accounting.
She will also be progressing onto her Level 4 Professional Diploma in Accounting this year. Outside of Kero Hannah enjoys exercising and spending time outdoors. When she is not feeling quite so active, she likes to unwind with a good book and spend time with friends and family. If you have an opportunity which you'd like to bring to our attention, our contact information is as follows:. Website by Limely. Get in touch.
Investing in Engineering Innovation We develop and support early stage and University spinout engineering businesses. Find out more Scroll. Kero Development Partners How we work. Kero invests in innovative engineering technologies that solve real world problems. Investment Process We make prompt decisions about each opportunity we evaluate A quick, efficient investment process is our aim. What We Look For. Our Services What we can do. Funding We understand the importance and challenges of properly funding innovation and growth and have the resources and flexibility to provide effective solutions.
Strategic Insight We work closely with you to understand your goals and aims, and develop a strategy to succeed. Build Value Exit planning can be complex. Portfolio Our current investments. Visit Website. Our story We are Kero Kero was founded in by Roger Doo and Keith Jones following their exit from Henrob, a global engineering business that Keith had set up to develop and exploit an innovative fastening technology. Meet the Team We are Kero.
Keith Jones Chairman. Corina Ogea Data and Financial Controller. Jonathan Clough Technical Consultant. Gillian Fleming Investment Associate.
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