We urge the banking industry to go back to basics : Fix the data problem before undertaking radical technology transformation and slowly chip away at technical debt via core modernization. In this report, we offer perspectives on what to expect in and beyond across seven primary business segments: retail banking , payments , wealth management , investment banking , transaction banking , corporate banking , and market infrastructure. We also lay out our expectations across a few domains— regulatory , technology , risk , and talent figure 4.
Last year, we noted a divergence in global regulatory standards, as many countries looking for ways to spur economic growth bucked the previous trend of postcrisis synchronization. In , global regulatory fragmentation continues to be a reality, and financial institutions are now contending with numerous—often unfinalized—requirements with implications that have yet to be fully realized.
At the same time, they are looking ahead to new risks—such as LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate transition, business resiliency, and technological change and innovation. Its planned relaxation Volcker 2. Numerous changes to the capital and stress testing framework are also underway.
Additionally, attempts to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are likely to gather speed. Nonfinancial risks are also top of mind for regulators, as their consequences become more apparent across cybersecurity, business resiliency, compliance, operational risk, data governance, and data quality. More fiduciary standards could be in the pipeline at the state level—New Jersey and Massachusetts are contemplating their own rules, which could complicate compliance challenges for broker-dealers.
Regulating privacy is another growing concern. As fintechs become mainstream, the issue of how best to regulate them has become more urgent. On one hand, incumbents and fintechs want the latitude to experiment and innovate without the weight of stifling regulation. On the other, innovators also want a degree of regulatory certainty to ensure that their investments will pay off over the long run and not be shut down or create unexpected legal, compliance, or regulatory costs.
In the United States, some of the uncertainty related to bank charters is likely to continue. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency OCC announced in that it would begin accepting fintech bank charter applications, but a federal court recently ruled that it lacked the authority to issue a bank charter to any entity that does not have federal deposit insurance.
Meanwhile, although cannabis has been legalized in numerous states, it remains illegal under federal law. This leaves banks that provide cannabis-related banking services in a precarious position. While the question of a eurozone-wide deposit protection plan remains mired in controversy, the European Union EU has made substantial progress in other aspects of its banking union project. Finally, in Asia Pacific APAC , there are few prospects for major new regulations for the finance industry on the horizon.
Instead, APAC regulators continue to focus on operating a reformed supervisory system. They are engaging directly with financial firms for example, conducting on-site supervisory visits to better understand their practices. They are increasingly taking a harder stance on misconduct and have set stringent expectations for professionalism and conduct. Amid global regulatory fragmentation, financial institutions—especially those with large global operations—are under significant pressure to reconcile local jurisdiction demands and their home country regulations.
Smaller institutions are also not immune to these regulatory ebbs and flows. With divergence expected to continue, coupled with some geopolitical instability and the possibility of an economic downturn, banks can best prepare by continuing their compliance modernization journey using the latest governance, risk, and compliance technologies. Last year, we highlighted the need for banks to excel at data management, modernize core infrastructure, embrace artificial intelligence AI , and migrate to the cloud.
This trend is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. For instance, in , North American banks are expected to spend nearly one-half of their total information technology IT budget on new technology, while European banks would spend about one-third, a figure higher than the current level 27 percent figure 5.
Challenged with legacy technology and data quality issues, most banks are unable to achieve the desired returns on their modernization initiatives. As a first step, institutions should tackle their technical debt, which is typically caused by past underspending and layering newer technologies on top of aging infrastructure. Legacy systems are among the biggest barriers to bank growth. Establishing a new, parallel, cloud-native core banking platform is gaining traction as a strategy.
This is because it is less risky, reduces time-to-market, brings results, and allows core banking functions to be migrated over time. They should also consider the risks for example, potential bias in AI-powered algorithms and fortify their own cybersecurity defenses.
And while increasing the prevalence of ecosystems and data-sharing between institutions expands customer data, it also complicates data management and raises privacy concerns. Banks should rethink their data architecture and get their houses in order to maximize returns from analytics initiatives. Additionally, privacy-enhancing techniques can help banks derive value from data-sharing without compromising privacy.
Lastly, digital transformation is not limited to technology and data. To realize long-term success, the human side should also be addressed. As technology gets cheaper and is readily adopted by the industry, the initial advantages may decrease in the long term. Another equally important aspect to consider will be culture.
More often than not, the success or failure of a digital transformation effort may depend on cultural issues rather than technical ones. Only those financial institutions that build a collaborative and innovative culture to drive change can achieve real returns on their technology investments in the next decade. Regulatory divergence, geopolitical instability, and the possibility of a downturn have created a host of impending risks, requiring financial institutions to rethink traditional approaches to risk management.
While banks have made notable strides in assessing and mitigating risk across the enterprise in recent years, the next decade will likely test their ability to continue to modernize the risk function. Bank leaders can start by contemplating what might be an optimal risk management model.
Banks should then consider how best to leverage the power of new technologies, which has yet to be fully realized. Technology has played a significant role in risk management for a long time. But thanks to recent advances, it can now help banks reshape their risk management program in more meaningful ways.
Very few banks, however, report that they have applied emerging technologies to the risk management function, 51 which could be a missed opportunity. Technology can increase efficiency by automating manual processes, assist in identifying emerging threats, and provide insights into risks and their causal factors.
And machine learning, coupled with natural language processing, could convert unstructured data such as emails into structured data that can then be analyzed to predict where risks might occur. At the same time, banks should be mindful of the additional risks these new technologies might create.
Third-party relationships with external technology vendors, suppliers, or service providers could expose banks to information misuse and theft insider risk , system failures, and business disruptions operational risk , or regulatory noncompliance.
On the other hand, biases, automation errors, and rogue programs could result in algorithmic risk. Additionally, deploying these technologies to manage risk will require banks to access and use high-quality, timely data. Without robust data, technology implementation will likely not be as effective.
For some time, financial institutions have had difficulty providing quality data from source through system. This is due to a historic proliferation of disparate legacy systems, which has limited their ability to capture, measure, and report data. Having better data, for instance, could help banks boost their monitoring and surveillance tools to detect and predict instances of employee misconduct conduct risk.
Last year, we encouraged banks to prepare for the future of work, as automation, robotics, and cognitive technologies continue to redefine how work is done. To figure out how this shift might impact talent, and—most important—what to do about it, bank leaders will need to understand not just changes to the nature of work the what and the how but also the workforce the who and the workplace the where —all of which are greatly interrelated.
When it comes to the future of work, many banks have started to explore automating manual, routine tasks by scaling technology from siloed use cases to larger processes across the enterprise. However, the human side of this transformation has received little attention, and leaders seem to be viewing the capacity freed up from automating these tasks as productivity gains at best.
To take full advantage of technology, however, firms should also focus on redefining and redesigning jobs to empower the higher-order work requiring intuitive, creative, interpretive, and problem-solving skills that humans can best handle. Firms have two options: talent acquisition or reskilling. While banks already have a strong appetite for talent acquisition, the closely regulated nature of the financial services industry has limited their ability to use alternative talent models gig or crowdsourced talent at scale.
The current low unemployment rates and tight labor markets further complicate the picture. As a growth imperative, banks should therefore consider reskilling and in some cases, upskilling their internal talent pool. But who would lead this augmented workforce? Lastly, since culture and configuration of the workplace have been linked to innovation 63 and business results, 64 banks have an opportunity to reimagine it to inspire talent. To enhance the human experience, banks should modernize their workplaces with more open and collaborative structures.
They should also explore ways to foster connections for their virtual workers. In Europe, the persistent reality of negative rates—expected to last for several more years 69 —has pushed down NIMs, with lending margins in Germany, for instance, declining since late Lending volume, however, has seen steady growth. Banks in many parts of Asia, on the other hand, have increased their margins, with NIMs reaching 2 percent.
China, in particular, has continued to see strong consumer lending growth. Regardless of business fundamentals, banking consumers around the world want the same thing: superior and consistent customer experience in branches, online, or via a mobile app. Unsurprisingly, digital lending is also where nonbanks are stealing share from incumbents.
In the US mortgage and personal loan markets, nonbank players have captured a large market share already. For instance, Quicken Loans is now the largest mortgage originator in the United States. Meanwhile, fintechs in Asia are becoming dominant players in retail banking. In Europe, fintechs are also making strides. Some of these fintechs are aiming to expand globally.
While still in the early stages of its evolution, it is most evident in Australia, the United Kingdom, and other countries in the European Union. Australia has even applied an expansive set of rules on consumer data rights and data-sharing to other industries as well. As a result, the nature and degree of competition will likely change; the surviving fintechs should become mainstream players and traditional incumbents will recalibrate their strategies.
Nevertheless, scale and efficiencies will be dominant factors. Also, in the next few years, banks could partner with others in the ecosystem to become de facto platforms, offering countless services that will extend beyond banking. Banks should still be best positioned to own the customer relationship, which would enable them to rethink their value proposition and serve client needs holistically, supported by data and analytics.
Offering advice should be a differentiating factor for banks as it becomes contextual and real time. Banks should rethink and innovate pricing models accordingly. In an open data environment, privacy concerns will also be a factor. The increasing pressure from a low-yield environment and the potential for an economic slowdown could negatively impact earnings, especially for smaller, less diversified, and consumer lending-focused banks. Banks should continue to increase their fee-based income, as well as focus on cost management, but should not lose focus on their digitization efforts and regulatory obligations.
To enable insights-driven offerings to clients, attain a leaner cost structure, and ultimately unlock future success, core modernization is key. Banks should digitize and transform across the entire value chain for all products. For instance, while almost every bank in the United States offers a digital mortgage application, only 7 percent manage end-to-end digital loan disbursement. Smaller banks, in particular, tied to a single core vendor in most cases, could find achieving their digital ambitions out of reach, so prioritizing modernization efforts could be key for them as well.
To drive revenue growth, retail banks should focus on loan and payments products over deposit accounts. And, improving the customer experience for all products should be an overarching goal of core modernization.
Open banking should take hold in in many regions. While the potential upside is vast, the stakes are high. In the United States, given the lack of a regulatory mandate, there are still some uncertainties about the scale and pace of adoption of open banking. As such, banks should be selective in how they implement open banking practices. Payments remains one of the most dynamic and exciting businesses in banking. The breakneck pace of change and the unprecedented scale of innovation are inspiring and testing established orthodoxies.
Their foremost challenge is to remain relevant and quickly adapt to the new competitive environment. While fintechs are driving much of the disruption, incumbents are not far behind. Take, for instance, the perennial problem of delayed settlement in business-to-consumer payments. Some card incumbents are bringing solutions to shorten the settlement cycle to near real-time payments. Overall, though, a good deal of the innovation in payments is happening in emerging markets, where mobile adoption and low-cost quick response QR technology are making digital payments the norm.
Concurrently, more countries—developed and emerging, alike—are prioritizing payments modernization through faster payments. More than 50 countries have either implemented or plan to implement faster payments solutions, 79 many sponsored by regulators. Meanwhile, the payments industry is seeing more consolidation, due to rising competition and the race to scale.
Payments will be invisible, seamless, and real-time but will likely be about more than just transactions. A whole slew of new value-added services, such as identity protection, real-time cash management, and new purchasing insights that customers and merchants alike would value, should be the norm.
New platforms would necessitate new payment mechanisms—all digital, of course. The net result is an industry that may become more competitive, with interoperability still a challenge in the near term. Redesigning customer experience by removing friction, enhancing value through rewards and access to other financial products, and bolstering security are expected to remain top priorities for payment providers.
While large payment providers could continue to offer an enhanced integrated experience, we are also likely to see an acceleration in unbundling the payments value proposition. This will comprise payment, credit, rewards, and security components but should also include the flexibility to interact with different experience providers.
Providers should increasingly focus on addressing the right pain points and reorienting product design to be experience-focused. This is important, as nearly four in 10 US consumers have experienced some friction with their credit card payments in the last year, with fraud being the most common complaint figure 7.
Traditional providers should aim to enhance their relevance with customers by increasingly providing them with real-time, contextual, and personalized services. However, adopting this customer-centric model will be easier said than done, given the siloed nature of data, narrow performance incentives, and product-based organizational structure at many firms. Getting a better handle on customer data is typically the first step in this transition.
Payment providers will also be forced to expand alternative revenue streams. In , further exploration of regulator-sponsored digital currency systems, such as those in China, and deliberation on appropriate cryptocurrency regulation 86 may go hand-in-hand. For privately sponsored digital currencies, payments providers should proactively work with regulators and ecosystem partners. Progress on developing faster payments is expected to continue at a different pace globally.
In North America, payments providers should be mindful of actions by the Fed and Payments Canada to determine potential strategies and learn from initial adoption. With any of the above strategies, partnerships, both traditional and nontraditional, will be critical to drive value from acquisitions and take advantage of broader market trends.
In the end, no matter what type of innovation payment firms engage in, they should aim to develop products in smaller, bolder cycles. This can put them on solid ground to fail fast, learn faster, reduce time-to-market, and revive their relevance. Banks are betting on their wealth management divisions to bring stability amid a looming downturn. As expected, robo-advice has become table stakes. Virtually every large wealth firm has a digital advice platform.
Independent robo players, however, are revisiting their business models, constrained by high client acquisition and servicing costs and low revenue yield. On the client side, changing demographics are prompting a strategic shift for some in product innovation, service experience, and adviser training.
More firms are targeting millennials, in particular, due to the size of the market, evolving wealth needs, and the impending wealth transfer. In the mass affluent market, competition is heating up. Through its recent acquisition of United Capital, Goldman Sachs' is targeting the large pool of corporate employees, 94 an underleveraged channel so far. And the ultra-wealthy are fueling the rise of family offices globally, simultaneously increasing investments into alternative asset classes, enabled by private feeder funds solutions of the likes of Artivest or iCapital Network.
Meanwhile, the competitive differentiation among offshore wealth centers has been shifting from regulation and tax factors to, more recently, provider capability and digital maturity, where countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, and Switzerland typically have an advantage. However, Asian centers are catching up fast, driven by advances in their digital infrastructure, such as mobile network coverage or internet bandwidth, and rising wealth in the region.
Wealth management could become the core of the banking-customer relationship. However, in the decade ahead, the business might face its most pressing challenges, as asset prices may come under pressure amid slowing global economic growth. Ability to provide real-time, tailored advice will become a key differentiator, along with the readiness to offer new products and asset classes, including digital assets.
The industry could see unbundling of the value chain, with players focusing on what they do best, while other parts are outsourced. Wealthtechs, increasingly partnering with incumbents, could also be an important part of this ecosystem. To prepare for the decade ahead, wealth managers are focusing on client experience, adviser experience and productivity, operational efficiency, and regulations.
A push toward less risky investment advisory models is expected in Next, improving client experience will likely be paramount as clients expect seamless, real-time advice. To achieve this, firms should prioritize front-office digitization and modernization. In a similar vein, upgrading and digitizing KYC and client onboarding processes, as well as AML transaction monitoring is critical.
However, this transition to a digital operating model may also engender new risks and necessitates a rethinking of the risk management framework. Enhancing adviser productivity and experience will also be key to cope with margin pressure, meet compliance demands, and provide superior client service. To attract and retain clients, online trading of stocks and exchange-traded funds in the United States will increasingly be offered for no fee.
This should benefit large-scale players that can make up for this loss in income through other predictable sources, such as sweep accounts. Lastly, wealth managers should follow the money to attain long-term growth. Moreover, with rapid increases in private wealth, Asian markets cannot be ignored as a potential client base.
Postcrisis structural shifts continue to impede investment banks from achieving stable returns. In , combined revenues at the top banks were at their lowest since Meanwhile, US banks continue to get stronger, generating 62 percent of global investment banking fees in , up from 53 percent in Recognizing the challenges ahead, some investment banks have restructured their sales and trading businesses and accelerated cost-cutting efforts.
But this is also leading to increased competition and new market entrants, causing further fragmentation. Furthermore, increasing platform sophistication among buy-side and corporate clients is threatening money-making opportunities.
In the United States, the five large asset managers have set up their own platforms to directly connect with company executives. Hedge funds and private equity firms have also begun to dabble in core investment banking activities. While the core intermediation function will remain the same—matching supply and demand for capital—significant changes can be expected in the services investment banks provide and their delivery.
Large corporates and buy-side firms could become more self-sufficient in standard capital market activities, but they will likely rely on bank expertise for more complex, global needs. The industry will likely be bifurcated, with a few large, global investment banks—mostly in the United States—and another group focused on local markets and specialized segments. As industry convergence accelerates in the broader economy, the need for cross-industry knowledge could become more important.
Meanwhile, technologies such as AI and blockchain could become central to the operation of capital markets businesses and for tailored client insights. Large US banks, despite the economic challenges ahead, have a head start in readjusting to a new world. Most European banks, on the other hand, will be forced to rethink their global ambitions and pick the businesses they want to succeed in, though they must be careful not to discard core functions to remain competitive in the future.
Asian banks are expected to continue to build their capabilities to serve local markets. The sales and trading business will likely undergo the most notable transformation. In sales and trading, posttrade simplification is becoming an urgent priority, with the bigger players now willing to make investments to simplify and innovate around this infrastructure.
Client intelligence and self-service are also major themes, not only as levers for simplification, but also increasingly to enhance the client experience. Banks should not lose sight of the need to address core modernization and develop new client solutions, while improving their cost structure.
Risk functions have seen some modernization, and a few banks have begun reshaping their business processes and other middle-office functions, with some taking bold initiatives. Resulting cost savings free up resources for front-office related investments, but it raises the question of whether competencies of support functions may weaken as such efforts are rolled out. AccessFintech, which specializes in collaboration, transparency, and control to the financial services industry, is an example.
Talent will become more important for banks as the blend of capabilities in complex finance, coding, and soft skills necessary to drive deals forward will likely be in short supply. Steady, predictable returns, an attractive cost structure, and sticky customers typically make this business highly attractive. Overall, European banks have lagged their US counterparts, due to record-low interest rates and sluggish domestic economic growth.
These initiatives involve significant technology upgrades and tremendous capital and change effort. For the most part, the industry has dealt well with these changes. But on the programs not mandated by regulations, progress has been slow even though clients, business partners, and regulators expect change to happen quickly, unlike in the past.
Transaction banks will increasingly become orchestrators of the financial ecosystems for global commerce and asset servicing. As physical flows merge with digital flows, banks should go beyond their core offerings to offer new services, such as hedging against climate risk or insuring digital assets. Banks will also be the trusted resource for advice, through machine-augmented intelligence. While real-time information flows will be pervasive, tools and models that fuse multiple technologies—from machine learning, blockchain, cloud, 5G, and quantum computing—will be increasingly common in transaction banking, as in other businesses.
The focus will likely also shift from local to global decision optimization for example, finding the best liquidity solution to considering broader factors and decision impacts. Risk and compliance controls should be embedded more seamlessly into operations. As corporate clients start to adjust their financing needs in response to a potential global slowdown in , transaction banks can add more value to their clients.
Securities servicing firms, on the other hand, are expected to continue to provide data analytics and insights to enable their clients to make informed investment decisions. Given lower prospects for growth, transaction banks should also double down on their own cost management and get a better understanding of their economic architecture. Investing in cost data and analytics in this regard could pay long-term dividends. Also, with an increased focus on cost management on the client side, treasurers may shop around for better pricing.
Failure to modernize the related core legacy systems—whether cash management and treasury or securities reconciliation systems—could be a missed opportunity. As faster payments become a growing reality and offer richer, structured data and real-time tracking, banks should consider offering new liquidity solutions to clients.
On the client side, corporates and buy-side institutions are expecting more from their transaction banks. They want real-time solutions that use data in an intelligent way to optimize working capital or investment performance and create a hassle-free experience. Open banking, in this context, is quickly becoming a differentiator and a way to lock in clients.
Finally, the advent of tokenized securities will push some custodians to design new digital assets custody solutions. Growth in corporate banking globally has been a mixed bag in Global deposit growth over the last year has been relatively flat, with a 1. US banks report weakening demand across several loan categories, partly citing increased competition between banks and from nonbank lenders, such as private capital firms and fintechs.
Some banks also report increasing the premiums on riskier loans. The same uncertainty has pushed many European banks to also tighten credit standards in Despite this, demand for corporate loans in Europe has remained robust, supported by low interest rates.
In Asia, the ongoing US-China trade conflict has begun to weigh on business lending. Even with recent efforts by Chinese regulators to stimulate lending and offset the impact from declining exports, corporate loans in China have sharply fallen over the year, and corporate bond defaults have soared. But the market is showing early signs of cooling, as some banks begin to shun leveraged loans amid a higher level of scrutiny. Influenced by what they see in their personal lives as consumers of digitally enabled services in areas such as online retail or ride-hailing services, more corporate customers have begun to expect similar high-quality, tailored, seamless services.
Faced with this shift and heightened competition, many corporate banks are prioritizing digital transformation. JPMorgan Chase, for instance, has said it will merge its corporate banking team with its middle-market technology division to better serve clients in that space.
Change is on the horizon, and the future landscape for corporate banks will likely be marked by evolving client expectations, business model and workforce shifts, and disruptive technologies. A more open world and access to greater amounts of customer data could lead to more analytics-driven processes, especially within loan underwriting. The new promise of open banking across the industry, meanwhile, could pave the way for platform banking.
There could very well be greater competition from insurance companies, private equity firms, traditional asset managers, and fintechs in the corporate lending space. Thus, the corporate bank over the next decade could look very different than the one today, as it redefines its role in the new financial ecosystem. In the short term, shifting client demands, increases in the cost to serve, and the threat from new market entrants will likely put pressure on banks to rethink their current strategies while it continues to strengthen relationships with clients.
To do so, corporate banks should first consider refreshing or enhancing their relationship management capabilities by offering clients a new business proposition via digital products and services. Finding fresh value streams outside loans will likely become an imperative, especially as economic uncertainty weighs on loan demand and as more fintechs such as Kabbage or StreetShares enter the lending space with alternative models. Digital products and services—for example, supply chain finance, specialized support, easy integration, or flexible funding options—could lead to new fee income opportunities and help protect against revenue pressure.
These new products and services can support the role of relationship managers by allowing them to take on an advisory role beyond lending. Next, banks should consider digitizing front- and back-office functions to boost operating efficiency and deliver the seamless, digitally enhanced experience that corporate clients increasingly crave. On the front end, account servicing, for instance, has long been a face-to-face business.
AI-powered, digitally assisted conversations during servicing could revamp routine communications, enhancing the client relationship and marking another step toward differentiation. On the back end, loan origination and rationalization are ripe for automation. Of course, digital enablement could be hindered without platform modernization. They might also consider infrastructure improvements via fintech acquisitions or managed services.
Finally, on the accounting side in the United States, with the approaching replacement of an incurred loss model by a current expected credit loss CECL standard, and the wide variation in allowances set by banks, it is yet to be seen what impact, if any, the new standards might have on lending volume, pricing, terms, and underwriting criteria. Exchange trading volumes in fixed income securities, futures, and options have also expanded, though mostly for smaller trade sizes.
Overall, volatility in equity markets is only slightly lower than , despite the rise in geopolitical risks. However, market liquidity in stocks, bonds, currencies, and derivatives has contracted. Electronification of bond trading is happening at a steady pace, although it is still only about 20—30 percent of total volume, depending on geography and asset class. In the cleared derivatives market, though, diverging global regulations have caused greater fragmentation, contributing to lesser competition and lower liquidity.
How this phenomenon plays out globally remains to be seen. Lastly, consolidation in the exchange industry is taking on a new shade. The exchange and clearing industry may reconsolidate and become more concentrated, even though we might see niche players emerging in the near term. Trading in digital assets, whether cryptocurrencies or digital tokens, should become more common. And, of course, intelligent automation, electronification, and a blockchain system for trading, clearing, and settlement could be pervasive, leading to greater efficiencies and declining margins.
This, in turn, will demand scale for profitability. Nontrading services could form a larger share of revenues over time, with the market infrastructure players expanding their business across the value chain and marketing their expertise to the buy-side and sell-side.
At the same time, systemic risk should increase, possibly bringing new regulations. However, whether these new rules will be harmonized across the globe or are country- or region-specific is hard to predict. The search for a new identity by market infrastructure players, stable returns, and higher margins will likely prompt further consolidation worldwide, especially if the economics become more challenging.
However, cross-border deals might face greater scrutiny. And by leveraging their technologies, exchanges can offer a market-in-a-box infrastructure. Of course, exchanges and clearing houses will have to continue to digitize their operations across the value chain, possibly through machine learning or RPA. While more blockchain-based experimentation and solutions could be developed, cloud adoption might not happen quickly due to security concerns and speed.
There continues to be an upward trend in battery capacity and associated vehicle range for passenger cars. Brexit negotiations are causing the fleet sector considerable uncertainty. Aspects such as availability of grants, CO2 emission targets and incentivisation for suppliers to sell the greenest vehicles in the UK are considered unknowns.
The rental sector is likely to be more reliant on PHEVs in the short term and could be hard hit if these powertrains are included in an earlier ICE phase-out. For the specialist vehicle sector, there is growing interest in hydrogen as an alternative powertrain option. Address supply issues facing some fleet segments such as vans and specialist vehicles.
Support investment in a stronger UK EV supply chain, including gigafactories. The increase in model availability is particularly prominent for the passenger vehicle segment. EV supply by manufacturers is largely driven by national and transnational vehicle standards such as the CO2 emissions standards for cars and vans. The stricter targets in force as of January have been highlighted by stakeholders consulted during the development of this report as a factor in the increase in model availability.
The limited product range for electric vans is beginning to be addressed by manufacturers with new models being released in but the relative model availability is still very low compared with ICEVs. There remains a lack of zero emission technology options for specialist vehicles.
Stakeholders are divided with respect to their opinions on supply constraints for EVs. During the consultation process for this report, some stakeholders mentioned that demand is far outstripping supply, whilst others stated they had no issues with supply constraints.
Similar to product range, supply constraints are thought to be a far bigger issue for electric vans compared to passenger vehicles. The general functionality improvements for passenger vehicles are not yet available in the commercial and specialist vehicle sectors, according to stakeholders for these vehicle segments. Suitable EVs are generally unavailable for the specialist vehicle segment.
Until this time the continuation of the plugin grant and tax incentives that effectively reduce upfront and running costs ensure that the TCO of EVs remains comparable with ICEVs. Stakeholders have expressed concern on the effects of high public charging costs particularly rapid charging on TCO models for vehicle ownership, though noting rapid charging currently forms a small proportion of overall charging behaviour.
Some stakeholders in the fleet sector have expressed doubt regarding the maintenance costs for EVs being cheaper than ICEVs, with tyre wear being an issue for EVs due to increased vehicle weight. Owners and companies can check the EV technical competence of technicians. These standards support the reskilling and accreditation of technicians and provide much needed confidence that EVs can be maintained and repaired.
However, the availability of technicians trained in EV maintenance is still relatively limited compared with ICEV servicing. If you compare with a few years ago, the prospects for consumer choice are far greater and more exciting — a wider range of brands at different price points in different segments. Battery development in the UK and Europe Potential constraints on battery supply and manufacturing are highlighted as a growing concern for the fleet sector.
Insufficient supply of batteries has been responsible for vehicle supply delays, leading to long wait times and the frustration of consumers and businesses looking to replace their fleets. Due to the efficiency and synergy that is achieved from locating battery manufacturers near vehicle producers, if battery.
The Institution estimates GWh of annual capacity will be required by if the UK is to retain a large automotive sector. In the UK, Government is developing gigafactories, and putting funding towards these plants — we need to now see everything come to fruition. The European Commission also launched the European Battery Alliance in October to address the industrial challenge of moving from fossil fuels to electric in multiple industry sectors and to leverage the benefits of the battery industry.
Impacts of Brexit on UK vehicle supply Brexit negotiations are causing the fleet sector considerable uncertainty in terms of vehicle purchasing decisions. Stakeholders noted the difficulty for both vehicle purchasers and OEMs in making plans due to the inherent uncertainty surrounding Brexit, with aspects such as availability of grants, CO2 emission targets and, in particular, incentivisation for suppliers to sell the greenest vehicles in the UK being considered unknowns.
From an OEM perspective, plans are being developed to account for all Brexit scenarios. Stakeholders also pointed towards. On a more positive note, some stakeholders noted that the Government will have greater control over tax measures for vehicles after Brexit. Inevitably a lack of an ambitious free trade deal will disrupt supply chains which are already struggling to meet demand for ultra-low emission vehicles and would harm the delivery of the ICE sales ban.
All stakeholders consulted as part of the consultation process for this report voiced strong support for zero tariffs on ZEV imports after Brexit. We can hope that the Government can incentivise keeping the vehicles that are manufactured in the country within the country, and also to ensure battery manufacturing capacity happens here and increases in volume. They need to be doing more to give absolute clarity to buyers and users on mapping out what incentives and tax benefits are ahead of them — the average life of a commercial vehicle is 11 years so buying now is committing up to This clarity is also required for electricity, charging and power delivery.
The vehicles from Europe are potentially facing import tariffs that will affect their prices. After Brexit, we will have more room to manoeuvre in terms of tax measures, including assessing what a VAT-based system looks like". CO2 emissions standards for cars and vans As of 1 January , the UK will set its own CO2 emissions standards for UK-registered cars and vans which will be at least as ambitious as current EU targets and are likely to remain in line with the EU.
A further reduction of Manufacturers who do not meet these targets will be subject financial penalties. Between July and August , UK Government consulted on a CO2 emissions regulatory scheme for new cars and vans in the UK — the outcomes of this consultation are forthcoming. Some industry stakeholders have recently queried the overall emissions of different vehicle powertrain types, particularly electric vehicles, from an overall life cycle perspective.
However, the BVRLA and its members do not think a mandate is the best route to achieve this, neither for OEMs nor fleets, as a blunt and inflexible target on OEMs could add an unnecessary regulatory burden and have unintended consequences. These consequences include a lack of policy alignment with other countries and constraints on OEM strategies resulting in higher costs to fleets reducing the ability to invest in EV infrastructure.
Many BVRLA members consulted believe that PHEVs serve a purpose, particularly with respect to advantages of allowing consumers to become accustomed to EVs and providing additional confidence for aspects such as vehicle range. In contrast, other stakeholders consulted as part of the engagement for this report have called to question the supposed emissions benefits achievable from PHEVs, as users can simply drive the vehicles in ICE mode and still benefit from favourable tax incentives.
The Government has signalled reduced support for PHEVs, removing them from plug-in vehicle grants in which some BVRLA members strongly disagree with and including them in phase-out plans within the X consultation. As such, the BVRLA and its members believe having a strong basis of incentives and avoiding tariffs represent the clearest options to ensure supply in a global supply shortage and to keep the market profitable for the fleet sector. ZEV mandates have been implemented in other regions, such as the new EU CO2 regulations introducing a zero and low-emission vehicle ZLEV super credits system, which works on the principle of having a minimum number of ZLEVs that need to be sold by a manufacturer in order to be eligible for a slight relaxation of the standards.
The fact that there are very few PHEV vans on the market also support this. The BVRLA believes that, in order for hybrids including non-plug-in hybrids to be excluded from any future phase out target, certain conditions must be met. These conditions include a sufficient supply of zero emission vehicles for all road transport applications; zero emission vehicles have price parity with petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles; and confidence in sufficient supply of charging infrastructure.
The rental sector experiences particular challenges with recharging the vehicles in time to be used by the next customer, which can be within a matter of hours, and as such PHEV technology allows for added confidence that the vehicle range will be available for the next customer. Representatives from the commercial vehicle sector believe that vans are likely to skip the interim PHEV technology step and instead move straight from petrol and diesel vans to pure electric vans, due to the added.
Industrial policy and strategy The UK is positioning itself to be a leader in the supply and manufacture of electric vehicles through the formation of a number of initiatives and funding schemes. Additionally, the Driving the Electric Revolution challenge seeks to make the UK a global leader in the manufacture of core technologies which underpin electrification, such as power electronics, electric machines and drives.
Whilst the above funding streams and initiative represent positive steps for the UK, investments by the UK are falling behind other countries such as France and Germany. As such, to keep pace with other countries, additional investment is required. There is a need to support the local OEMs in any way we can. We want to use locally-sourced product — from a tax and import duty perspective, this can ensure locally produced vehicles have those advantages.
Some stakeholders noted that the second-hand market is currently buoyant, but that the market will be impacted once the next tranche of vehicles becomes available. Some stakeholders have pointed towards a Government role incentivising used vehicle buyers — whilst incentives towards the first buyer initially made sense, a shift to incentives towards used vehicle buyers may lessen the second-hand purchase cost gap between EVs and ICEVs.
There is a role for Government to assess whether further support is required for the second-hand market, and how the policies and tax incentives for the new vehicle market align with the second-hand market. It must be noted that a balance must be struck in consideration of any incentives to used BEV buyers — the impact on non-BEV second-hand vehicle purchase and the ability of the fleet sector to sell secondhand ICEVs and the associated impact on new BEV purchase must also be considered.
The majority of current financial incentives to switch to electric are aimed at new car drivers. Financial incentives could help to close the affordability gap, but consumers also need to be informed about whole life cost and need confidence around second-hand battery health. At the start, it made sense to give incentives to the new buyer to encourage new registrations, but now it may be time to consider how we shift the balance to used vehicle market incentives.
Based on feedback from stakeholders consulted in the development of this report, the passenger car EV market is less constrained from a supply perspective than other vehicle categories. Whilst numerous of these stakeholders noted that demand is currently outstripping supply, few stakeholders reported experiencing supply issues when procuring EVs. However, some stakeholders noted a growing interest from consumers in EVs and as such they anticipate future supply constraints.
With respect to BVRLA member segments experiencing issues, electric vans were continually highlighted during the stakeholder engagement process as being a constrained market, both in terms of vehicle models and stock of vehicles, along with their suitability for certain operations.
Some stakeholders pointed towards the necessity of ensuring the TCO model for electric vans stacks up, which can be difficult due to the higher upfront costs and a lack of effective incentives. As outlined previously, the rental sector also experiences issues with respect to vehicle supply, with pure BEVs considered unsuitable for the sector without significant infrastructure in place.
Stakeholders operating specialist vehicles are sceptical of whether electric alternatives will ever be suitable for their sector, particularly specialist vehicles that require drawing power from the engine to power other machinery or equipment during operations. For larger vans, Centrica has taken a decision to extend diesel vehicles for another year, before a suitable larger van comes to the market within the coming year.
Steve Winter — Head of Fleet, Centrica "For commercial vehicles in particular, there is a double whammy of challenges — firstly, there is a limited supply of batteries and therefore the manufacturers are putting them into vehicles they know they can easily sell without too much of a challenge, i.
Passenger car EV supply is improving, with increased product range and improved functionality. The unknown impacts of Brexit are leading to significant uncertainty for the fleet sector in making longer-term decisions with respect to vehicle purchase. BEVs are less suitable for the rental sector due to the required rapid turnaround of vehicles and necessity to charge.
Further support for the rental sector is required, possibly via support for PHEVs within the rental fleet. The supply of electric vans, both in terms of range of models and stock of electric vans, continues to be a serious issue. Some larger van categories are still yet to find a suitable electric alternative that matches operational requirements. There is a query surrounding whether any electric alternative will be suitable for the specialist vehicle sector; there is growing interest in hydrogen as an alternative powertrain option, but there is no UK hydrogen strategy in place.
Incentivisation for manufacturers: the incentivisation given to manufacturers or to consumers to create an attractive market for OEMs must at least match, or beat, the incentives given to manufacturers across Europe to ensure continued investment in the UK.
Demand for vehicles The extension of incentives and the tax and fiscal benefits announcement in the March budget helped to provide clarity for the passenger car EV sector, particularly for company cars. Some BVRLA member segments require further support, for example rental companies do not benefit from fuel cost savings and the specialist vehicle market cannot benefit from existing demand measures due to a lack of vehicle options.
Greater certainty is required on the future availability of incentives and grants to support the business case for ZEV investment. Recommendations Commitment to longer-term support on grants and incentives. Increase in-life incentives to make EVs attractive in the used market.
The grant is confirmed to exist at some level until but may be subject to change. The BVRLA welcomes the continuation of the PiCG but would like to see it extended until to give the fleet sector more confidence in its vehicle purchasing. The continuation of grants for fleets is highlighted by other research efforts as being of particular importance1.
The level of grant funding remaining the same as is welcomed by the BVRLA due to the higher costs of electric vans; however, similar to the PiCG, the BVRLA would like to see the grant extended until to give the fleet sector more confidence in its vehicle purchasing.
It is important that Government leads by example by publishing regular updates on this measure. Whilst the continuation of the grant scheme is welcomed by the BVRLA and its members, and the reduction in grant funding was anticipated, there are no plans announced for continuation of the grant post The limit for number of sockets per employer also recently increased from 20 to 40 sockets, which was welcomed by the BVRLA and its members.
Further clarity on plans moving forward is desirable. Similar to the EVHS and WCS, further clarity post would enable the fleet sector to more effectively assess charging infrastructure. The funding covers the years The Go Ultra Low campaign has continued to be an important tool to ensure consumers are educated about the electric vehicle landscape.
At the moment, the Government grants allow for this; but if they are reduced or withdrawn, then the TCO model is difficult to operate due to the capital costs of the technology. Getting the TCO model to work is absolutely paramount — companies will not pay a huge premium to operate the vehicles. Steve Winter — Head of Fleet, Centrica " Some vehicle segments will need grants and incentives increase and for a longer period of time than others - whilst the Plug in Car Grant has been hugely successful, and welcomed by most, there are still examples, especially in the Light Commercial and Multi-Person Vehicle Carrying segment where the current OEM offering is difficult to justify from a financial investment perspective.
Government will continue to use the grants and incentives for the best methods for the public purse. They are working well at the moment, and the product will get less expensive over time. The grant could similarly change over time, for instance by targeting SMEs and public companies. This policy update provides an incentive for BEVs and is in line with recommendations made by BVRLA in , though neglects to incentivise PHEVs and other low emission vehicles by applying a flat rate which does not reflect fuel efficiency and hybrid electric miles from year two.
There remains no VAT reduction or exemption dependent on emissions for new car purchases or leases. Modelling by Cambridge Econometrics4 suggests that a full exemption for purchases and leasing payments is essential to deliver transition by the target, especially for the retail car segment.
Government should keep changes to VAT under consideration and carry out an annual review of tax measures for fleet vehicles. We need Government to look a little bit farther out with respect to the system — this is the main thing that would give certainty to the fleet and retail market. A similarly low rate applies to PHEVs with high electric mile range, with the exact BIK rates depending on the electric miles capacity.
The rate for conventional cars depends on their CO2 emissions though are notably higher. In March , HM Treasury announced that, from April , the Government will apply a nil rate of tax to zero emission vans within the van benefit charge, bringing the Van Benefit Charge in line with company car BIK rates.
There is currently no time period attached to this nil rating. A autocar. These figures do not include the economic benefits of the transition on job creation or vehicle and battery manufacture which are expected to impact on the net cost. The exact incentives for the fleet sector need to continue to be reviewed, based on an assessment of the surrounding economic and market conditions.
An extension of Enhanced Capital Allowances ECA to leases within the fleet market as well as direct purchases from The document outlines the challenge of reducing emissions from all modes of transport to achieve net-zero emissions by , and reviews existing climate policy in transport. The Government is currently consulting with a wide range of stakeholders on what the plan may include. The intention is to publish the Transport Decarbonisation Plan before the end of or early According to the source referenced, such a scheme is now thought to be very unlikely with HM Treasury reconsidering the best way to stimulate the UK economy, under the belief that a scrappage scheme would boost overseas manufacturers more than British firms.
The Government held a series of workshops for two weeks — the BVRLA was requested to actively contribute to the workshops — the BVRLA provided a slide deck ahead of the Road Transport Decarbonisation session focused on the main challenges and opportunities from the X consultation. The session had attendees joining 11 separate workshops. This shows that scrappage schemes can be successful in stimulating uptake of low emission vans, though they need to provide sufficiently high incentives.
The BVRLA, in association with the Finance and Leasing Association FLA , developed principles of an automotive demand stimulus scheme11, which are recommended to be followed in the implementation of any scrappage scheme. At its core, the BVRLA and FLA recommend that, in order to be truly effective, any EV stimulus scheme must work for both the new and used market, and it should make the UK a more attractive market for OEMs to sell their EVs and help those who cannot afford to buy a new electric car to purchase or lease a new one.
These measures are in relation to a Government-released study looking at a range of measures that could be used to increase EV adoption and reduce ICEV usage12 — measures considered also include penalising petrol and diesel drivers. Additionally, in June , Government also announced the introduction of green number plates for EVs, to be introduced across the UK from autumn , following a consultation process. The BVRLA and its members are supportive of the green number plate scheme as long as it is coupled with practical tangible benefits, such as access to bus lanes and subsidised parking.
As such, there is growing interest in ensuring the UK develops and accelerates its focus on hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure. The UK Government has. During an Environmental Audit Committee in September , it was confirmed that the forthcoming energy white paper will include plans for hydrogen, which will be followed by a detailed strategy in early The softer incentives give a heart reason as well as a head reason — you want people to feel good about choosing an EV.
Whilst most people only use rapid charging as a small proportion of overall charging, the large discrepancy can disadvantage those who do rely on rapid charging, and as such the BVRLA and its members recommend reconsidering the AER for EVs. From a fleet perspective, A survey by Go Ultra Low of fleet managers revealed that one in three UK fleet managers expect half of their company car fleet to be electric by ; and seven in 10 fleet managers are preparing to buy an electric car within two years Additionally, half of UK fleet managers are predicting an uptake in electric company cars due to the aforementioned changes to Company Car Tax.
Fleet operator user sentiment has also been highlighted as being particularly important in other studies Stakeholder feedback during the consultation process for this report has shown that user sentiment towards EVs varies dependent on the BVRLA member segment under consideration. Whilst there appears to be improving sentiment towards plug-in vehicles in car retail and car fleets, user sentiment towards EVs can be particularly problematic for rental and specialist vehicle fleets.
The BVRLA and its members recommend not losing the momentum that has been achieved and continuing to offer incentives and tax benefits to these fleets. As such, this benefit could be extended by another year so the fleet sector can more fully realise the benefits of this measure.
According to stakeholders, vans and specialist vehicles have differing issues in terms of a lack of available incentives to bring the vehicles to the market in the UK. Whilst the continuation of the PiVG and the Van Benefit Charge developments are beneficial to the market, there are still barriers to be overcome in terms of the suitability of the vehicles.
Some stakeholders have also indicated that additional support is required for the rental sector, due to the fact that typical TCO benefits for fleet vehicles do not stack up for rental vehicles, and the purchase costs for EVs are significantly higher, whilst customers do not wish to pay more for the vehicles.
The rental sector also requires a greater use of higher-powered charging, which can be very expensive to install in rental branches, particularly if the branch is on a short-term lease. With respect to car clubs, these vehicles continue to be gradually transitioned to EVs, and they can benefit from the range of incentives offered towards car retail and car fleets.
There is an argument for extending the BIK rollout, so the zero rate would last for another year. Rental and leasing companies are early adopters of new technology and the main source for the second-hand market. Wider adoption can be achieved if more EVs are available at an affordable cost to that market so it is really down to Government to step up and incentivise it.
Almost the entire van market is diesel. Description The extension of incentives and the tax and fiscal benefit announcement in the March budget helped to provide clarity for the passenger car EV sector, particularly for car fleets. Fleet purchasers would benefit from additional and longer-term clarity on incentives and tax measures.
However, the retail market is said to be preferred over the car fleet market in terms of OEMs supplying for the demand. There have been some positive demand measures specifically for electric vans announced as part of the March budget; however, a lack of vehicle stock and model availability inhibits the van sector from fully realising these demand benefits. The quick turnaround for the fleet necessitates higher infrastructure costs, and consumers tend to be more apprehensive about choosing BEVs as rental vehicles.
Additional support is required for this sector. The measures benefiting other BVRLA member segments are not as beneficial to the specialist vehicle market due to a lack of vehicle options. As such, further demand support measures should be focused on specialist vehicles. Recommendations Due to the uncertainty surrounding the economy and the impact of the EU exit on the UK automotive market, Government should carry out an annual review of the tax and incentive needs of the fleet sector and set aside funding so that extra incentives can be injected into the market if the decarbonisation trajectory of the market is in question.
Suggested measures as outlined below are to assist the delivery of the accelerated transition that Government is requesting of road users. Build on the range of tax and fiscal incentives outlined in the March budget and provide future certainty on the range of benefits available:.
Future certainty: provide future certainty on the grants and incentives available, supporting the business case for ZEV investment. Policy alignment: ensure incentives and disincentives align with current technological developments — e. Hydrogen strategy: ensure any developing strategy for hydrogen has an active voice from the fleet sector.
Vehicle Excise Duty: ensure the forthcoming VED review reflects the need for an incremental transition to EVs and hybrid vehicles by continuing to incentivise the cleanest ICEVs over the next five years. State Aid: ensure direct grants and funding given to businesses to support EV infrastructure development do not count as State Aid under a future UK regime post-Brexit.
Infrastructure scheme: provide a grant scheme for rental branch locations due to the additional costs of high-powered infrastructure in these locations. Hundreds of demonstrators march against the death of a black man who was beaten to death by white guards at a Carrefour supermarket and some clash with police in the evening.
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